The Allsnow Blizzard of 2026

[Blizzardo]

just need a quick thump to get the ground white and then its showtime!

[wthrmn654]

Wow 18z hrrr is doubling down big totals on long Island. 

[SACRUS]

RRFS (planned to replace the nam/hrr r 

[RU848789]

Just now, Jt17 said:

Ratios is a big part of it. People in here always dismiss them. This will have them up north where you are. And further south and southeast there's more QPF in general to get them to their forecast. And then banding is sure to set up somewhere relentlessly allowing select areas make it to the high ends of their forecast.


.

NBM, which uses a combo of Kuchera and the Cobb method has overall ratios of 12-13 for the NJ coast and 15-17 NW of 95, which is part of the reason why the NBM is showing more snow per QPF than the 10:1 snowfall maps.  I can definitely see this, since once we overcome the early melting, the snow crystal growth dynamics in the DGZ should be great for low density/high ratio dendrites, especially after about 7 pm with temps below 32F in the whole column.  Only question then becomes how much crystal breakage do we see upon descent through a very windy column.  Will be interesting to see. 

Also, measuring the snow accurately will be tough once we get past 9-10 pm and winds really pick up.  Might have to use my technique of going to a huge field near me, which limits the "edge effects" one gets in most house properties with fences, trees, roads, etc. This was the only way I could get decent measurements for big storms with high winds like Jan-96, BDB and Jan-2016.

[sussexcountyobs]

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

There's going to be a big band somewhere just north of you into Sussex County imo

Let's hope so! I'll let y'all know. I'm off tomorrow,  so let it dump.

[wthrmn654]

16 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

I posted this elsewhere but I will put it here also as I am looking for a little insight ,,,,,,,IF the MESOS earlier started to bum people out why would the NWS now increase amounts and issue blizzard warnings for Orange and Duchess counties which are well N n W of NYC ,,,,,,what are the experts looking at ? The HRRR ? something else ? Bueller ? anyone 

While the latest 12z GFS is now lower with QPF and more in line with
the Canadian and ECMWF, these global models are struggling with
banding. Current forecast QPF and Snow Amounts remained similar
to previous forecast which is more in line with hi res/HREF
guidance. Snow amount was derived using similar snow ratios to
the previous forecast. Much of the guidance including the NBM
appears to be too high. This was mannualy adjusted down to
10:1 or even a bit lower today, then increasing to 12-14:1 by
late tonight into daybreak Monday as colder air wraps around
the system. Using these ratios with generally 1.25 to 1.50
inches of QPF across the interior and 1.75 to 2.00 inches along
the coast resulted in a swath of about 20 to 24 inches of snow
for NYC and Long Island and 16 to 20 inches elsewhere. While
this is the expected amount, a few isolated readings of 30
inches are possible in the heaviest banding, mainly along the
coast.

[TJW014]

Snow beginning to stick to cold surfaces

[Franklin0529]

Decided to go to my parents house in Galloway. About 10 miles north of Atlantic city inland about 5 miles from Ocean. Ripping snow here the last hr ground covered an roads starting to cave

[GlobeTrekker]

34 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

Visibility down and starting to stick in Jersey City a bit. Def earlier than I expected it to stick to surfaces.


.

Sticking now in Hoboken also, but roads still clear. Temperature down to 32.5

[SACRUS]

[WeatherFox]

From the Storm Prediction Center 

[oceanctyguy]

5 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

Snow beginning to stick to cold surfaces

What's your temp?

[Nibor]

4 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Decided to go to my parents house in Galloway. About 10 miles north of Atlantic city inland about 5 miles from Ocean. Ripping snow here the last hr ground covered an roads starting to cave

Good luck have fun. Should be a great spot for this one.

[JonClaw]

Down to 32.7 per mesonet

[WeatherGeek2025]

30 minutes ago, Uniblab said:

That's where I am! 

I have Staten Island at 26 inches I hope I bust low lol that would be amazing!

[donsutherland1]

18z NBM (v.5.0):

Note: V.4.3, which will be replaced this spring, shows 25” for Central Park. The newer version with the more realistic snow-liquid ratios has been very steady.

[Violentweatherfan]

Just now, donsutherland1 said:

18z NBM (v.5.0):

Note: V.4.3, which will be replaced this spring, shows 25” for Central Park. The newer version with the more realistic snow-liquid ratios has been very steady.

Don can you post this with SEPA in the Philadelphia forum 

[IYC77]

Beginning to accumulate in Brooklyn

Sent from my SM-S926U1 using Tapatalk

[KrummWx]

Been snowing pretty steady in Manhattan for 3-4 hours now, roads and surfaces are still mostly clear. Finally starting to see some stickage on the dirt tree root things on the sidewalk. 34th @ 7th

[NJwx85]

9 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Decided to go to my parents house in Galloway. About 10 miles north of Atlantic city inland about 5 miles from Ocean. Ripping snow here the last hr ground covered an roads starting to cave

My Grandmother lived in Pomona. About 3 miles from Stockton. Spent many Summers down there.

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said:

Don can you post this with SEPA in the Philadelphia forum 

I will post the PA map. Unfortunately, there is no map that zooms in on SE PA, which is surprising given that Philadelphia is a major city.

[Jt17]

Been snowing pretty steady in Manhattan for 3-4 hours now, roads and surfaces are still mostly clear. Finally starting to see some stickage on the dirt tree root things on the sidewalk. 34th @ 7th

Snow sticking to even grass or dirt in the city before it turns dark is a good sign for accumulations.


.

[MANDA]

28 minutes ago, Nibor said:

For north and west folks that deform band on the latest HRRR is also modeled on the RAP and FV3. No guarantee but I think that's the back edge of the big totals.

Going to be close out here in west central Morris County.  Glad I'm not any further west.  Wish that surface low was more inside the BM but we take what we can get.  Coastal and more eastern locations are in good shape.

[GregRups21]

Light snow started up Montvale nj


.

[Franklin0529]

5 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Good luck have fun. Should be a great spot for this one.

Thanks I appreciate it!! It's really coming down now big fat cotton ball flakes. 

[Franklin0529]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

My Grandmother lived in Pomona. About 3 miles from Stockton. Spent many Summers down there.

Yea I'm not far! I'm right off rt 30!! Should be fun here

[Brasiluvsnow]

13 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

While the latest 12z GFS is now lower with QPF and more in line with
the Canadian and ECMWF, these global models are struggling with
banding. Current forecast QPF and Snow Amounts remained similar
to previous forecast which is more in line with hi res/HREF
guidance. Snow amount was derived using similar snow ratios to
the previous forecast. Much of the guidance including the NBM
appears to be too high. This was mannualy adjusted down to
10:1 or even a bit lower today, then increasing to 12-14:1 by
late tonight into daybreak Monday as colder air wraps around
the system. Using these ratios with generally 1.25 to 1.50
inches of QPF across the interior and 1.75 to 2.00 inches along
the coast resulted in a swath of about 20 to 24 inches of snow
for NYC and Long Island and 16 to 20 inches elsewhere. While
this is the expected amount, a few isolated readings of 30
inches are possible in the heaviest banding, mainly along the
coast.

Thanks 

[Astoriaweather]

Wow. It's coming. Rehoboth Beach Delaware. https://www.instagram.com/302.life/reel/DVEme8QDzKh/

[Snowman92]

Dropping off a few orders for work as I drive up through Brooklyn to Bergen County.

 

Williamsburg Brooklyn has roads and cars covered now with an inch maybe. 34 degrees

[Brasiluvsnow]

24 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

Ratios is a big part of it. People in here always dismiss them. This will have them up north where you are. And further south and southeast there's more QPF in general to get them to their forecast. And then banding is sure to set up somewhere relentlessly allowing select areas make it to the high ends of their forecast.


.

this was shared take a look 

While the latest 12z GFS is now lower with QPF and more in line with
the Canadian and ECMWF, these global models are struggling with
banding. Current forecast QPF and Snow Amounts remained similar
to previous forecast which is more in line with hi res/HREF
guidance. Snow amount was derived using similar snow ratios to
the previous forecast. Much of the guidance including the NBM
appears to be too high. This was mannualy adjusted down to
10:1 or even a bit lower today, then increasing to 12-14:1 by
late tonight into daybreak Monday as colder air wraps around
the system. Using these ratios with generally 1.25 to 1.50
inches of QPF across the interior and 1.75 to 2.00 inches along
the coast resulted in a swath of about 20 to 24 inches of snow
for NYC and Long Island and 16 to 20 inches elsewhere. While
this is the expected amount, a few isolated readings of 30
inches are possible in the heaviest banding, mainly along the
coast.