February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: Buckle Up!

[TSSN+]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Wild that y'all are giving up on this event next week. There's still plenty of disagreement among models, and most give us something. That coastal miss this weekend really got to you, huh?

Unless the euro ai comes back to showing anything, I’m doubtful 

[Terpeast]

Also I'm not buying the warmup shown by some AI models in Feb (the warmest ones have been the worst performers). I think we remain cold for at least the next 2 weeks, probably 3. We'll get our chances, some of which the models may not be showing at this time. 

[GreyHat]

5 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Wild that y'all are giving up on this event next week. There's still plenty of disagreement among models, and most give us something. That coastal miss this weekend really got to you, huh?

Not me, just what we see right now. The forecasters are saying, over here we should see a dusting. 

Off topic I was going deer hunting unrill I saw the winds and wind chills being forecasted. 

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, GreyHat said:

Not me, just what we see right now. The forecasters are saying, over here we should see a dusting. 

Off topic I was going deer hunting unrill I saw the winds and wind chills being forecasted. 

For now it looks like a minor event just like it appeared a few days ago, but I'm waiting until D4 lead time to make any statements with confidence about it. That's when the models seem to be locking in the best.

[JenkinsJinkies]

15 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Also I'm not buying the warmup shown by some AI models in Feb (the warmest ones have been the worst performers). I think we remain cold for at least the next 2 weeks, probably 3. We'll get our chances, some of which the models may not be showing at this time. 

Is it a true warmup or a “warmup” where we go from vodka back to seasonal?

[Terpeast]

9 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Is it a true warmup or a “warmup” where we go from vodka back to seasonal?

We may get closer to seasonal, but still cold enough to support snow given the right storm track.

[Blizzard of 93]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

That's certainly my fear at this point. But it goes back to December when I  said I was concerned with central and southern VA being the jackpot because I  couldn't recall a decent winter up here when then we're bullseyed first and that you want to be in the bullseye with the first storm because that's often an indicator of the season. There's still time, but the block really suggests at this point storms will continue to gravitate to our south.

Really …?

Just like the storm last weekend “knew” to stay to our south …. But then became congrats Boston & Toronto? How was that for a seasonal trend?

Let’s see how this one plays out.

[Blizzard of 93]

Or how about the 12/26 storm that gave us a mix & didn’t trend south. That  one was congrats NYC & southern NE.

How did that seasonal trend work out @mitchnick ?

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Really …?

Just like the storm last weekend “knew” to stay to our south …. But then became congrats Boston & Toronto? How was that for a seasonal trend?

Let’s see how this one plays out.

You're right. I should have phrased it relative to climo because I'm below and down south will likely be above after Sunday.

[snowfan]

28 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Is it a true warmup or a “warmup” where we go from vodka back to seasonal?

AIGFS would result in some having a winter thaw w well above avg temps as we get into the 2nd week of February. Seems to be on its own attm.

[frd]

10 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

We may get closer to seasonal, but still cold enough to support snow given the right storm track.

 

Mike Thomas@MikeTFox5

·

9h

 

 

For those asking about a warm up...this is a tricky question as well.

 

Strong & relentless stratospheric warming ongoing and expected to remain up near the polar region right through the first half of February, which will likely continue polar blocking and keep cold temps coming our way through at least the middle of the month.

 

AI models offer some home with the western ridge breaking down beyond next weekend, allowing more zonal (west-to-east) pacific flow and allowing temps to soften. AI guidance suggest middle 40s possible around this time...but a lot of the other ensembles do not agree. Many are keeping 40s away until we get beyond the midpoint of the new month. That seems a little extreme in my opinion though...I think it's somewhere in between.

 

Think we probably crack the 40°F mark the week of 2/8 but I'm not seeing anything that screams sustained above normal temperatures anytime soon.

 

 

[mitchnick]

9 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Or how about the 12/26 storm that gave us a mix & didn’t trend south. That  one was congrats NYC & southern NE.

How did that seasonal trend work out @mitchnick ?

Why so hostile? Lol

We can all point to events that went north or south. But like my post above, I'm speaking greatest climo anomalies. The pattern right now with the block is quite anomalous. Maybe it will work out and maybe it won't. But I have my fears for the reasons stated. 

[GreyHat]

39 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

For now it looks like a minor event just like it appeared a few days ago, but I'm waiting until D4 lead time to make any statements with confidence about it. That's when the models seem to be locking in the best.

Minor event would be okay. We've had a couple minor events this winter overe here and this moderate one that gave us all this ice. 

I'll watch the models but with that positive trough and that system coming out of Canada may push it away from us. Again until the systems are sampled Sunday or Monday you can't rule anything out yet.

[Heisy]

We need the ridge position out west to trend farther W. Its current position isn’t giving the shortwave room for amplification.

[Kmlwx]

16 minutes ago, GreyHat said:

Minor event would be okay. We've had a couple minor events this winter overe here and this moderate one that gave us all this ice. 

I'll watch the models but with that positive trough and that system coming out of Canada may push it away from us. Again until the systems are sampled Sunday or Monday you can't rule anything out yet.

I would argue that the sleet glacier might have nudged the impact of this past storm to major. I know the amounts won't echo that - but the impacts relating to the bitter cold after I think edge this upwards. 

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Wild that y'all are giving up on this event next week. There's still plenty of disagreement among models, and most give us something. That coastal miss this weekend really got to you, huh?

Come on man.  How can you blame us after this week's fiasco?  If that didn't happen, I def wouldn't be skeptical.  We got snake bit and I'm just weary as hell.  And it all started this exact same way.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, Kmlwx said:

I would argue that the sleet glacier might have nudged the impact of this past storm to major. I know the amounts won't echo that - but the impacts relating to the bitter cold after I think edge this upwards. 

Yeah def major, the piles of ice make it look like we had 18 inches.  This stuff doesn’t compact or melt in this weather at all. 

[anotherman]

We need the ridge position out west to trend farther W. Its current position isn’t giving the shortwave room for amplification.

Sounds familiar.

[Kmlwx]

Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Yeah def major, the piles of ice make it look like we had 18 inches.  This stuff doesn’t compact or melt in this weather at all. 

Yeah it's pretty crazy...my neighborhood is very slowly improving but still largely single file - and the entrances to the subdivisions are really tricky if you aren't careful (limited visibility around turns and such with the piles). Even with the cold temps after - I think if this had been cold powder - we'd be largely back to full lane usage on all roads. 

Randolph Rd and New Hampshire in my area as of this AM still had essentially a whole 2/3rds of a lane missing and ice jutting out into the left lane form the medians in spots. 

By far...the ICC is the best cleared road I've seen in my travels to and from work. They've even hauled snow out from the shoulders to allow the shoulder to be reopened.

This is up there with the Feb 2007 sleet bomb in my "memorable storms" mental catalog. I don't have @psuhoffman's uncanny memory for ALL storms - but this one will be one I certainly do not forget. 

[frd]

4 minutes ago, Heisy said:

We need the ridge position out west to trend farther W. Its current position isn’t giving the shortwave room for amplification.

Soooo many things need to go right to get snow here, even when you have the coldest airmass in the Northern hemisphere centered over the Eastern US. 

Maybe once we get closer to Feb 10 th to the 13 th we have a chance at undercutting energy entering the West Coast, or maybe not. 

At least we got one decent storm, got to use the snowblower.  

 

[LP08]

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Come on man.  How can you blame us after this week's fiasco?  If that didn't happen, I def wouldn't be skeptical.  We got snake bit and I'm just weary as hell.  And it all started this exact same way.

If it ain’t on the Ai, I ain’t gunna buy.

[Ji]

8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Come on man.  How can you blame us after this week's fiasco?  If that didn't happen, I def wouldn't be skeptical.  We got snake bit and I'm just weary as hell.  And it all started this exact same way.

what fiasco? the models only gave us snow on one day(monday). once they switched to a Carolina storm....there was no turning back

[Eskimo Joe]

3 hours ago, Heisy said:

I thought the 00z euro looked better at H5 than it actually produced at the surface.

Happy 16th Anniversary of Feb 2010!!

[RevWarReenactor]

3 minutes ago, frd said:

Soooo many things need to go right to get snow here, even when you have the coldest airmass in the Northern hemisphere centered over the Eastern US. 

Maybe once we get closer to Feb 10 th to the 13 th we have a chance at undercutting energy entering the West Coast, or maybe not. 

At least we got one decent storm, got to use the snowblower.  

 

What’s crazy is it actually seems easier to get snow 500 miles south of us. Just get tons of cold in and it delivers down there. We are either too warm or too cold. 

[stormtracker]

7 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Sounds familiar.

Exactly.  We need A+B+C divided by 20 x .16 sigman minus e squared worked by a dozen cows and an eclipse.  It is what it is.  I'll track but not getting my hopes up.   Euro already doing the same thing as before.  Color me spooked.

[konksw]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

what fiasco? the models only gave us snow on one day(monday). once they switched to a Carolina storm....there was no turning back

And it’s still a frozen tundra outside with snow and ice as far as the eye can see with barely plowed streets. We just had a major storm, less than a week ago!

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

what fiasco? the models only gave us snow on one day(monday). once they switched to a Carolina storm....there was no turning back

Keep the faith brotha.  I'm just bitter.   And it wasn't just once.

[Terpeast]

16 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Come on man.  How can you blame us after this week's fiasco?  If that didn't happen, I def wouldn't be skeptical.  We got snake bit and I'm just weary as hell.  And it all started this exact same way.

Fair. I just never really bought into the northern track because I wanted to wait until it got within 100 hrs. Sure I got excited for a brief moment when euro shifted NW, but I wanted to wait until it showed the same shift for 3 consecutive runs. It didn’t this time. Next week is a weaker event that goes on a more W-E trajectory, a different type of event that isn’t really comparable to this weekend. 

[SolidIcewx]

26 minutes ago, Heisy said:

We need the ridge position out west to trend farther W. Its current position isn’t giving the shortwave room for amplification.

 

[BlizzardNole]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

We may get closer to seasonal, but still cold enough to support snow given the right storm track.

Gimme that for the first half of February.  Seasonal but with one good track storm with a clean snow.  I'd be ready for spring then