Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow Sunday 1/25 - Tuesday 1/27

[dmillz25]

1 minute ago, North and West said:

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Well thats new I didn’t know Brent Rooker was into weather lmaooooo

[Stormlover74]

8 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

On the road and can’t check anything on eps and ai ensembles? Does it show mixing like operational?

No they're much colder

[eduggs]

Just now, psv88 said:

Take a breath bud. We all know the risks. No need to be a negative Nelly in this setup. If you want to panic about what can go wrong maybe write it down in a journal 

I feel like I'm one of the few being even keeled. I'm describing the situation as it is - not how I wish it were. It's a legit big snowstorm threat. But there are concerns, particularly with recent trends. It's weather forecast discussion... not a pants tent meme party.

[psv88]

4 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I feel like I'm one of the few being even keeled. I'm describing the situation as it is - not how I wish it were. It's a legit big snowstorm threat. But there are concerns, particularly with recent trends. It's weather forecast discussion... not a pants tent meme party.

What? There are no concerns. We are getting a nice storm. Be positive not negative 

[wthrmn654]

Good God,  calm down people... everyone needs to take a 15 mintue break from here.....

[NEG NAO]

Anyone remember our high expectations several days out with this storm ? We were talking about this one on the forum previous to this one - think it was called Eastern Weather ?

Snow and ice storm, March 4-6, 2001 - Storm Summary

[MJO812]

16 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

This would require the WAA snows plus snows from coastal. 

I think 6-12 is the best range area wide and that could skew in the 6-10 direction or 8-12. 

I think 8-12 is the right call right now.  Although it can be alot more if everything goes right.

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I feel like I'm one of the few being even keeled. I'm describing the situation as it is - not how I wish it were. It's a legit big snowstorm threat. But there are concerns, particularly with recent trends. It's weather forecast discussion... not a pants tent meme party.

Who is concerned about a foot of snow ?

[weatherpruf]

4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Anyone remember our high expectations several days out with this storm ? We were talking about this one on the forum previous to this one - think it was called Eastern Weather ?

Snow and ice storm, March 4-6, 2001 - Storm Summary

i had just started a new job in a school and we were out two days and the only thing that happened was some light sleet.....

[T4NK]

 

Everyone right now

[eduggs]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Who is concerned about a foot of snow ?

Careful locking in a foot 
Imagine how you would feel looking out the window at a dryslot and 5" of snow as BGM and ALB sail past 18" on their way to 24". Think you would feel good about your major snowstorm?

[weatherpruf]

5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Anyone remember our high expectations several days out with this storm ? We were talking about this one on the forum previous to this one - think it was called Eastern Weather ?

Snow and ice storm, March 4-6, 2001 - Storm Summary

there have been a few of these....jan 2015 and march 2017 come to mind.....and the infamous heavy snow warning of 2008 iirc...as for the valentine's 2007 sleet fest, that was warned about early on as that warm nose was well modeled before hand, i remember craig allen talking about it, and it was in one of those winters where it just did not want to snow here...

[CentralNJSnowman]

Not sure why everyone is on eduggs' case.  He's not saying we won't have a big storm.  He's giving concrete reasons why there are concerns that the storm MIGHT not meet high end expectations.  That's doesn't seem especially controversial.  Even his statement that at four days, the low end up possibility is 0" shouldn't be especially controversial.  It's unlikely, but we've seen it happen before.

[NEG NAO]

Just now, eduggs said:

Careful locking in a foot 
Imagine how you would feel looking out the window at a dryslot and 5" of snow as BGM and ALB sail past 18" on their way to 24". Think you would feel good about your major snowstorm?

Agreed and I wouldn't commit to any accumulation amount right now until all the players are on the field and moving - at first I thought we would have high ratio's but now that is in doubt also.

[North and West]

I actually really like that one! Cracks me up every time 

I tried to find the “he’s out of line, but he’s right” for your trepidation. I hope you’re wrong, but I get it!


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[North and West]

ok this is getting weird....

Just some weenies throwing around weenies.


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[Prue11]

What’s the likelihood in everyone’s opinion of LI seeing more than a foot?

[Jt17]

Not sure why everyone is on eduggs' case.  He's not saying we won't have a big storm.  He's giving concrete reasons why there are concerns that the storm MIGHT not meet high end expectations.  That's doesn't seem especially controversial.  Even his statement that at four days, the low end up possibility is 0" shouldn't be especially controversial.  It's unlikely, but we've seen it happen before.

Haven't heard him dissect any of the other modeling from the same 0z model suite other than Euro and Canadian OP. More modeling including op runs, AI and ensembles look like GFS OP than Euro OP.


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[Prue11]

12z euro

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

2 minutes ago, Prue11 said:

What’s the likelihood in everyone’s opinion of LI seeing more than a foot?

Anywhere on Long Island or a specific spot?

[Prue11]

Just now, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Anywhere on Long Island or a specific spot?

Central suffolk. If history proves it seems pretty likely 

[Jt17]

12z euro

Been posted like 20x


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[Winterweatherlover]

9 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Careful locking in a foot 
Imagine how you would feel looking out the window at a dryslot and 5" of snow as BGM and ALB sail past 18" on their way to 24". Think you would feel good about your major snowstorm?

I'd be relatively ok with it but yes many would flip out if that happens. 

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, Prue11 said:

GFS and Euro are at odds right now because the precip on the GFS only arrives area wide 3 -6 hours before mixing is very close on the Euro

[WeatherGeek2025]

6 minutes ago, Prue11 said:

What’s the likelihood in everyone’s opinion of LI seeing more than a foot?

if it's GFS wins this one for sure 12-24 there

[Prue11]

2 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

Been posted like 20x


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Maybe some people don’t wanna scroll back 5-6 pages 

[Wannabehippie]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'd go 6-10 or 8-12

I am still sticking with my 0"- 100" forecast.

[Rjay]

2 minutes ago, Prue11 said:

Central suffolk. If history proves it seems pretty likely 

It seems like an ok bet right now but it's still too far out to give numbers.  The odds of a 6+ plus storm are relatively high subforum wide. 

[CentralNJSnowman]

7 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

Haven't heard him dissect any of the other modeling from the same 0z model suite other than Euro and Canadian OP. More modeling including op runs, AI and ensembles look like GFS OP than Euro OP.


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That would be a fair criticism if he was telling us what he thought was most likely to happen.  But that's not what he posted about...he posted about the possibility of how the storm could underperform...so it makes sense that he'd cite the models that give us reason for concern.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

4 minutes ago, Prue11 said:

Central suffolk. If history proves it seems pretty likely 

I wouldn't call that very likely. Very likely you changed to sleet at some point I give better odds of that. Probability of over a foot in central Suffolk? 22.7%