Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/25 - 1/26

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, Joe4alb said:

HRRR coming in slightly colder

Looked maybe a touch warmer to me. Sleet gets here by 22z roughly.

[Rjay]

Using NYC as a reference point, there will be a couple hours of light snow, followed by a couple hours of moderate snow.  Then there will be a big thump between 12 and about 6(ish)pm before any mxing.  I think 8-12" is a good forecast.  I wouldn't be surprised if there was a little more if it snows at 2-3" an hour for a couple hours.  With that said, it also wouldn't completely shock me if it mixed earlier.  Usually I would think the NAM would be spot on with the mid-levels.  I think it's too aggressive in this case.  

I kind of like the idea of a thump then nyc turns to sleet for a couple hours then precip shuts off completely or there's some freezing drizzle. 

[sussexcountyobs]

From EPAWA text alert just now:

Sussex: Snow moves in 4-6am Sunday, mixes with sleet evening, ending 8-10pm, snow showers linger to Monday AM

Snow/sleet: 12-18 inches

[SnowGoose69]

10 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Forky is usually spot on and has not provided an update from when stated " not worried high is in a perfect spot".

So until he changes.....

 

I prefer the high to be situated a bit more SE and the approach of the storm to be more due south than it is in this case but both are close.  I’ve mentioned before the center of the high over or slightly east of PWM and the core of the system approaching from along the VA/NC coast due north vs more from the SW is ideal.  January 87 2014 and November 2018 are examples of that.  It tends to result in more severe lifting and crazy snow rates but can also slow the changeover  

[nycsnow]

Nam should be out soon let’s see which way it goes since it’s never consistent but people riding it like it’s gospel 

[nycsnow]

RGEM is a massive hit 

[EastonSN+]

9 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

18z HRRR snowfall from the model itself through 23z. 

Just a bit north and now pretty much aligned.

NAMs are really the outlier here.

[SACRUS]

 

1/24 18z NAM

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

[EastonSN+]

6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I prefer the high to be situated a bit more SE and the approach of the storm to be more due south than it is in this case but both are close.  I’ve mentioned before the center of the high over or slightly east of PWM and the core of the system approaching from along the VA/NC coast due north vs more from the SW is ideal.  January 87 2014 and November 2018 are examples of that.  It tends to result in more severe lifting and crazy snow rates but can also slow the changeover  

Also if the flow were faster it could have shunted the storm east before gaining as much latitude. Or pushed a kicker in. Go figure.

[eduggs]

20 minutes ago, Joe4alb said:

HRRR coming in slightly colder

It's warmer than 12z, sorry.

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Also if the flow were faster it could have shunted the storm east before gaining as much latitude. Or pushed a kicker in. Go figure.

I mean you can't always get a perfect setup, I'd rather this then it get suppressed.

[NorthShoreWx]

20 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

Valid to a point.  There’s also no Atlantic Ocean bordering Arkansas….

They are a lot closer to the GOM, which is a source for us too in this event.  Atlantic not that big a deal until the coastal gets going 

[Winterweatherlover]

2 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

NAM doesn't seem to show any snow in Tennessee. 

[Joe4alb]

2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

It's warmer than 12z, sorry.

yeah saw that, started colder then coastal was closer and ended warmer.

[EasternLI]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Just a bit north and now pretty much aligned.

NAMs are really the outlier here.

I'm feeling pretty much the same as Rjay. Been thinking 6-12 range most of the day. It's going to rip really good for a bit I think. Should be fun. 

[SACRUS]

 

NAM 18Z

 

 

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

RGEM is a massive hit 

Rgem and cmc

Big hits and colder

[binbisso]

1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said:

NAM doesn't seem to show any snow in Tennessee. 

Yea nam way off

[eduggs]

13 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Using NYC as a reference point, there will be a couple hours of light snow, followed by a couple hours of moderate snow.  Then there will be a big thump between 12 and about 6(ish)pm before any mxing.  I think 8-12" is a good forecast.  I wouldn't be surprised if there was a little more if it snows at 2-3" an hour for a couple hours.  With that said, it also wouldn't completely shock me if it mixed earlier.  Usually I would think the NAM would be spot on with the mid-levels.  I think it's too aggressive in this case.  

I kind of like the idea of a thump then nyc turns to sleet for a couple hours then precip shuts off completely or there's some freezing drizzle. 

Recent runs of the RGEM, HRRR, UKMET, RRFS etc bring sleet into the area as early as 2-3pm. I suspect that's probably correct but I think there will be sleet & snow mixed or oscillating ptypes for several hours.

[psv88]

Someone post RGEM. It’s a BOMB for all and cold 

[NorthShoreWx]

12 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Nam should be out soon let’s see which way it goes since it’s never consistent but people riding it like it’s gospel 

If it shows a big snow now, I will ride it. 

[wxman]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Rgem and cmc

Big hits and colder

not running on pivotal.  Maps?

[psv88]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

Recent runs of the RGEM, HRRR, UKMET, RRFS etc bring sleet into the area as early as 2-3pm. I suspect that's probably correct but I think there will be sleet & snow mixed or oscillating ptypes for several hours.

Thoughts on RGEM? Too cold?

[Winterweatherlover]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

Someone post RGEM. It’s a BOMB for all and cold 

I don't see it even out but if accurate thats a strong signal the NAM may be wrong.

[eduggs]

The RGEM is a strong thump with several hours of legitimately heavy snow. But it still brings sleet in late afternoon. The LHV on north stays mostly snow and continues lightly through Mon morning.

[eduggs]

Anybody else notice the cool upslope-downslope couplet on strong easterly flow in CT and the Hudson Valley visible at like 1z Sunday night on the RGEM? I don't see that signature on any other model.

[EastonSN+]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Rgem and cmc

Big hits and colder

Yeah the RGEM is really intense with the snow band.

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, binbisso said:

Yea nam way off

Nam might be coming in colder

[SACRUS]