Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/25 - 1/26

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

The rap is pretty consistent showing this but how is the RAP with thermals?

I’ve found that these models are too cold with these type storms this far out. By tonight it will have more of a clue. I’m going to look to see trends in how the snow gets here/how fast we pile up vs whether we (around the city) stay snow or change over to much sleet. That to me’s been decided. 

[nycsnow]

Just now, SACRUS said:

 

FWIW RAP - seems to always be the coldest in these situations

15Z

QPF

 

 

Sow (10:1) 

 

Minus nam and rrfs the short term

models look like this 

[nycsnow]

Just now, jm1220 said:

I’ve found that these models are too cold with these type storms this far out. By tonight it will have more of a clue. I’m going to look to see trends in how the snow gets here/how fast we pile up vs whether we (around the city) stay snow or change over to much sleet. That to me’s been decided. 

Might not mean much but some Places holding on longer down south 

[Volcanic Winter]

1 hour ago, Prue11 said:

Dude have some positivity you’re posting nothing but negative thoughts for our area. Maybe we’ll bust in a positive way, not likely but you never know

This isn’t only a safe space for snow addicts, it’s a science discussion forum. 

The only posts that annoy me on AWX is stuff like this, IMHO has zero business here. 

[Prue11]

From what I’m seeing my call is still 6-10” for nyc/LI. 6” if sleet comes in earlier 8-10” if later. I believe we will all still a ferocious thump of heavy snow and with rates 1-2” possibly 3” an hour that can pile up quickly 

[winterwarlock]

11 minutes ago, Snowman92 said:

All the crazy shopping and people going nuts on the news for about 6 hours of light snow and 4 hours of heavy snow

the hype on this storm was just stupid. It was talked about 8 days before. 8 days model runs should never seep into the public. 4 days is when they should get the heads up and it was clear 4 days ago there could be issues with this storm. Thats where the starting point should have been. Add in Mt Holly going nutso hugging that stupid NBM model to its base and putting out irresponsible 12-18 inch maps that only were supported by the GFS and then blatently telling us in discos that sleet was a very low possibility. I have no idea who is in charge of Mt Holly but they totally screwed the pooch with hype and disco instead of taking a pratical approach giving both sides of the coin. Even yesterday they refused to budge with snow maps of 14 inches as likely amounts for most of NJ. I am sorry to be so harsh but somebody has to.  This will be an impactful storm dumping 4 to perhaps as much as a 15 inches in northern NJ and 1-2 inches of sleet added to 4-8 inches of snow is impactful but its not something we have not seen before. Its a Sunday. It will thump heavy snow for 6 hours and then turn to pingers of varying intensity til midnight. Schools will be closed on Monday and everyone will have the opportunity to dig out by afternoon and hit the grocery store again. The real story will be the glacier deep freeze for the next 2-3 weeks. 

[Northof78]

9" - 13" for most of NYC Metro looks on track...12Z GFS looks really nice. MECS incoming...

[SACRUS]

 

 

1/24 12z UKIE

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

UKIE

 

 

 

 

 

 

[sussexcountyobs]

Heat is fixed. System was air bound.

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

This isn’t only a safe space for snow addicts, it’s a science discussion forum. 

The only posts that annoy me on AWX is stuff like this, IMHO has zero business here. 

I mean I could say that the NAM/RRFS are trash and we’re all getting 12-18”, but that’s not reflective of reality. I’d rather set myself up for what to really expect and understand the evolution of it. And it should still be a fun 4-6 hours before going to sleet, and what we get will stay for a long time. Not saying at all this won’t have a significant impact. 

[SnowGoose69]

I'm taking alot of abuse this morning lol, "you have been very accurate this winter but these last two storms you've been awful on your predictions".  I'd be wary of the NAM given its been solid on these ideas this season thus far.  Right now I'd be nervous about the 6 plus forecast for the coast for sure though it may be 6 plus with sleet included since official climo counts that.

[bwt3650]

the hype on this storm was just stupid. It was talked about 8 days before. 8 days model runs should never seep into the public. 4 days is when they should get the heads up and it was clear 4 days ago there could be issues with this storm. Thats where the starting point should have been. Add in Mt Holly going nutso hugging that stupid NBM model to its base and putting out irresponsible 12-18 inch maps that only were supported by the GFS and then blatently telling us in discos that sleet was a very low possibility. I have no idea who is in charge of Mt Holly but they totally screwed the pooch with hype and disco instead of taking a pratical approach giving both sides of the coin. Even yesterday they refused to budge with snow maps of 14 inches as likely amounts for most of NJ. I am sorry to be so harsh but somebody has to.  This will be an impactful storm dumping 4 to perhaps as much as a 15 inches in northern NJ and 1-2 inches of sleet added to 4-8 inches of snow is impactful but its not something we have not seen before. Its a Sunday. It will thump heavy snow for 6 hours and then turn to pingers of varying intensity til midnight. Schools will be closed on Monday and everyone will have the opportunity to dig out by afternoon and hit the grocery store again. The real story will be the glacier deep freeze for the next 2-3 weeks. 

Totally agree with this sentiment. Here in hunterdon county I like 7-9 before the sleet, with maybe another inch on the way out. Well North of 80 probably gets close to a foot. Just my amateur opinion.

Nam sniffed out the bust a few weeks ago with the warm layer and has lead the way with the push north in this storm. Too early to celebrate its win, but looking like the champion of seeing the trend. Very Nice, typical winter storm for this area; nothing more.


.

[Bxstormwatcher360]

No model has it right,too many moving pieces rn. And the primary won't be as strong as modeled,and the suppression is undermodeled imo. What will happen is a major battle with cold air and the warmer air trying to fight back,creating intense precip and frontogenesis. Everything down south is runner colder atm as well.

[Eduardo]

29 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The lead in forecast evolution for tomorrow's storm reminds me a lot of the December 2020 across our area (differences of course especially SNE and mid-Atl). The big snows for that one slipped away too but the impact was still significant locally.

I think this is a good comparison too.  Anyone know offhand what phase the MJO was in during it?  I think our being in 6 right now is partly responsible for the upcoming slop storm on the coast.  Hopefully we cash in as we move through 8-1-2 during the next few weeks when the cold is around.

[psv88]

Ukie looks cold. 

[SACRUS]

 

1/24 12z UKIE

 

Total QPF:

 

 

 

Total Snow (10:1)

[nycsnow]

Locked in

[Bxstormwatcher360]

Just now, psv88 said:

Ukie looks cold. 

Because it is cold out. The rap and ukie have the same idea rn,which is also my thoughts as well. It's gonna snow ALOT!!

[Snowman92]

11 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

the hype on this storm was just stupid. It was talked about 8 days before. 8 days model runs should never seep into the public. 4 days is when they should get the heads up and it was clear 4 days ago there could be issues with this storm. Thats where the starting point should have been. Add in Mt Holly going nutso hugging that stupid NBM model to its base and putting out irresponsible 12-18 inch maps that only were supported by the GFS and then blatently telling us in discos that sleet was a very low possibility. I have no idea who is in charge of Mt Holly but they totally screwed the pooch with hype and disco instead of taking a pratical approach giving both sides of the coin. Even yesterday they refused to budge with snow maps of 14 inches as likely amounts for most of NJ. I am sorry to be so harsh but somebody has to.  This will be an impactful storm dumping 4 to perhaps as much as a 15 inches in northern NJ and 1-2 inches of sleet added to 4-8 inches of snow is impactful but its not something we have not seen before. Its a Sunday. It will thump heavy snow for 6 hours and then turn to pingers of varying intensity til midnight. Schools will be closed on Monday and everyone will have the opportunity to dig out by afternoon and hit the grocery store again. The real story will be the glacier deep freeze for the next 2-3 weeks. 

I agree with most of this. We will need about a day to dig out and salt and we will be fine. This is not a 15" +  snowstorm across the full tristate area and every single county, I can understand craze for something like that

[SACRUS]

 

1/24 15Z HRRRRR gets snow in between 3 and 5 AM

 

 

[Monty]

5 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

the hype on this storm was just stupid. It was talked about 8 days before. 8 days model runs should never seep into the public. 4 days is when they should get the heads up and it was clear 4 days ago there could be issues with this storm. Thats where the starting point should have been. Add in Mt Holly going nutso hugging that stupid NBM model to its base and putting out irresponsible 12-18 inch maps that only were supported by the GFS and then blatently telling us in discos that sleet was a very low possibility. I have no idea who is in charge of Mt Holly but they totally screwed the pooch with hype and disco instead of taking a pratical approach giving both sides of the coin. Even yesterday they refused to budge with snow maps of 14 inches as likely amounts for most of NJ. I am sorry to be so harsh but somebody has to.  This will be an impactful storm dumping 4 to perhaps as much as a 15 inches in northern NJ and 1-2 inches of sleet added to 4-8 inches of snow is impactful but its not something we have not seen before. Its a Sunday. It will thump heavy snow for 6 hours and then turn to pingers of varying intensity til midnight. Schools will be closed on Monday and everyone will have the opportunity to dig out by afternoon and hit the grocery store again. The real story will be the glacier deep freeze for the next 2-3 weeks. 

Totally agree. We know the dust hasn't settled and there's something to be said about not making dramatic changes twice a day, but I've always considered Mt. Holly and OKX the best in the biz. I don't feel that way currently. Not that private forecasters are much better. Steve D is sticking with 8-16 all the way down to Philly and Wilmington (and an 8 inch range is a copout BTW) and 6-12 down the Delaware Bay. WeatherBoy on Facebook still has 18-24 in central NJ. You can't blame the public entirely when public and private forecasters are all lathering each other up. Some groupthink on display I think. 

[NJwx85]

The UKMET has a warm bias so seeing it this cold is a red flag that the warning might be slightly overdone.

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

Because it is cold out. The rap and ukie have the same idea rn,which is also my thoughts as well. It's gonna snow ALOT!!

Being cold out doesn't have to do with upper levels. Yes we will get a lot of snow though I agree.

[North and West]

NAM really hates this storm


.

It’s not the storm it hates, it’s us.


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[SACRUS]

 

1/24 12z GEFS

 

Total QPF

 

Total snow /sleet (10:1)

 

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, North and West said:

It’s not the storm it hates, it’s us.


.

It's all a matter of perspective, the NAM likes the storm for central and northern NE a lot lol

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, SACRUS said:

 

1/24 12z GEFS

 

Total QPF

 

Total snow /sleet (10:1)

 

1.3 liquid, I'd guess about 50/50 snow vs sleet so that should be about 6-9 inches of snow.

[WeatherGeek2025]

22 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

15z RAP still snowing at 6PM FWIW

 

this is a good model short term, don't pay no mind to nam

[Prue11]

12z gfs hammers mass