“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[MJO812]

[JACKASS]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Well when you eat burgers and pudding like you do, additional exercise is needed

Some of us just work for a living.

[brooklynwx99]

holy shit AIFS!!!

[MJO812]

Euro is about to cave

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

That maybe close enough to get a deform band inland.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Damn the 18z AIFS is jacked

[Chrisrotary12]

Don’t do it

[Snowcrazed71]

1 hour ago, CT Rain said:

Don't get sucked in!!

And I just heard it from your lips.  Maybe a glancing blow. Can't buy a storm around here though.

[JACKASS]

18z....

[dryslot]

Just now, Chrisrotary12 said:

Don’t do it

To late, Most did.

[brooklynwx99]

LOL

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Sema whiners ftw

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Sema whiners ftw

I think that may have a band further in that QPF won't reflect.

[Ginx snewx]

37 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

  I know you aren't a jack queen, but 'cmon....you wouldn't be the least bit frustrated at DC getting 40" and you getting 10?

Don't bullshit me...you would secretly sneak out to the kennel and kick a puppy.

Nope there's no jealousy in my bones over snow. I grew up in SRi where any snow was a bonus. Plus it wasn't until days after did we know what others got and that was limited. I  am a different generation of weenie. 

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Some data ingest should be into the 0z models tonight so we should see some changes, Euro may have some of that at 18z

 

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

LOL

Ha

[butterfish55]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Sema whiners ftw

I just told Brett in our text thread (with Bob) that if we get another 2 footer the board is going to kill him

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Nope there's no jealousy in my bones over snow. I grew up in SRi where any snow was a bonus. Plus it wasn't until days after did we know what others got and that was limited. I  am a different generation of weenie. 

Same.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

LOL

Oh boy oh boy oh boy 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Nope there's no jealousy in my bones over snow. I grew up in SRi where any snow was a bonus. Plus it wasn't until days after did we know what others got and that was limited. I  am a different generation of weenie. 

Fair enough. I don't need a jack here, nor do I expect it....just get me to double digits.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think that may have a band further in that QPF won't reflect.

Oh no doubt. Not worried about qpf yet. Trying to JMA this thing at h5 first…

[dryslot]

The 18z AIFS is a flag i think.

[wx2fish]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think that may have a band further in that QPF won't reflect.

Still ends up chucking 1" qpf to NH border

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dryslot said:

The 18z AIFS is a flag i think.

I'm a bit intrigued, yea....I'm hungry, craving a warm helping of crow.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, butterfish55 said:

I just told Brett in our text thread (with Bob) that if we get another 2 footer the board is going to kill him

Lol yea he may have to make like a pope and go into exile until next season.

[Wxbear25]

46 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

  I know you aren't a jack queen, but 'cmon....you wouldn't be the least bit frustrated at DC getting 40" and you getting 10?

Don't bullshit me...you would secretly sneak out to the kennel and kick a puppy.

Not everyone has the tear duct capacity to bulltetproof their 12” snowpack because someone else got 24”

[Damage In Tolland]

We are all system go folks 

[EastonSN+]

14 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EURO AI

 

From MA forum.

[Cyclone-68]

I was going to make a joke about maybe pressing the two boobie lows together so we would get snow but I decided that would be very low brow of me 

[dryslot]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm a bit intrigued, yea....I'm hungry, craving a warm helping of crow.

What sides do you like?  

[vortex95]

So I took a more detailed look at things.  Several things are apparent:

1)  This is a non-standard East Coast biggie set up at 500.  Usually, it is already a pumped up ridge in the W, and troughing/confluence in the E, w/ *no* "predecessor" system like we get Fri, which is complex in itself b/c you have a moderately strong low pressure move to the Great Lakes, deeply occlude, shear out to the E, and then get a half-decent secondary low develop just SE of New England.  Complexity #1

2) The NAMR pattern aloft is blocky.  It is all southern stream jet w/ it over the central and southern CONUS.  No polar jet at all.  Along the border, flow is weak and a mess.  You have two small 500 lows as "PLAY-UHS" here, one near DLH and another near YEG.  Complexity #2

3)  The differences from the GFS and the ECMWF lie mostly on how the YEG 500 low is handled, and to a lesser extent the DLH 500 low.  The 18z GFS sheared out the YEG 500 low w/ a couple a discrete s/w trofs that fall into the mean trof position in the E, and the lead one dominates and cuts off quickly over the OH valley, and digs to ORF before lifting NE intact and intense as a cut-off 500 low.  The 12z ECMWF, OTOH, bodily moves the YEG 500 low SE and it starts to cut off over the OH Valley.  *However*, it appears the DLH 500 low sends a vort ESE as the low itself move N into Canada, *and* at the same time the trof/vort that is near SFO now, after coming out of the mean ridge position, re-amplifies and makes a new small cut-off low at 500 near DTW.  So this results in a dumbbell effect of two 500 lows w/ an axis initially from BUF to AVL.  And the result is an unphased mess at 500 as it all emerges off the Mid-Atlantic.  This does not happen on the 18z GFS,  The SFO trof/vort largely dampens out as it moves through the mean ridge position, does not do anything once in the DTW area, and thus is a non-factor, so no dumbbell effect and thus a much more coherent 500 cut-off low as it crosses the coast.  Complexity #3

You can see all the above clearly by doing the 500 hgt/vort loops on Pivotal Wx for the 18z GFS and 12z ECMWF.

So the large-scale synoptic pattern is good.  What we are dealing w/ really is the smaller-scale here, namely the DLH and YEG small 500 lows, in-between the synoptic and mesoscale.

Given the above, can we expect any model to handle such a complex pattern "better" here, even only less than 3 days before the event???   Very subtle differences as to what happens upstream in the next few days will be a *huge* IMHO as to what we eventually get on the East Coast!  And I would argue no model is good enough to handle such smaller-scale details when slight differences can tip things either way.