Winter Storm Threat Feb 22-24th

[MJO812]

15 minutes ago, jerseyshorewxguy said:

are you repeating the same sentence over and over again in hopes that it will become reality?


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Yes

[MJO812]

20 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If this is a light, 1-3 inch event, whatever falls during the day on Sunday would be white rain until the sun sets Sunday night. Marginal temps that are above freezing during the day on 2/22….that’s white rain until night fall

Like the last storm you predicted right ? Its not March. 

[MJO812]

This is dejavu from last year when the models show a huge snowstorm just a few days out only to take it away. Even the euro showed a big snowstorm and lost it.

It was also around this time.

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

This is dejavu from last year when the models show a huge snowstorm just a few days out only to take it away. Even the euro showed a big snowstorm and lost it.

It was also around this time.

So then it shouldn't surprise you it happened again

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Yes

always appreciated your humility and honesty. you're a total homer for snow and unapologetic. 

[njwx7]

The main cluster of 12z EPS members are east of the 00z run, however the mean is pretty similar thanks to this small cluster of western members which move extremely slowly.

 

 

I don't have access to the panels but I wouldn't be surprised if there are probably a few big hits in there. 

 

 

[WeatherGeek2025]

8 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I'm thinking we can probably put this thread to rest by the 0Z runs tonight. Maybe change the name then to follow the Norlun. 
 

Forget the models, I'm still shocked that whethergeek2025 may have gotten this one totally wrong. 

why kick the dog when he's down

[Yanksfan]

EPS ensembles?

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

This is dejavu from last year when the models show a huge snowstorm just a few days out only to take it away. Even the euro showed a big snowstorm and lost it.

It was also around this time.

Yep I remember it-the Euro took it away at 12z that day and it never came back and the rest of the models lost it right about that time.  Winter was essentially over at that point I don't think it snowed again and march was fairly mild if I remember correctly

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

17 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

why kick the dog when he's down

Tough love. You will thank me one day.

[rclab]

12 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I'm thinking we can probably put this thread to rest by the 0Z runs tonight. Maybe change the name then to follow the Norlun. 
 

Forget the models, I'm still shocked that whethergeek2025 may have gotten this one totally wrong. 

 

9 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Imagine what he’ll become the day he gets a big one right? *Shudders*

Coney Island, Nathan's, July 4th? As always…..

[LVblizzard]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This is dejavu from last year when the models show a huge snowstorm just a few days out only to take it away. Even the euro showed a big snowstorm and lost it.

It was also around this time.

The rug pull was much harsher with that one. It went from a big storm to almost nothing in just a day or two. At least with this one we still have a decent chance at a light to moderate event as the phase happens.

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, LVblizzard said:

The rug pull was much harsher with that one. It went from a big storm to almost nothing in just a day or two. At least with this one we still have a decent chance at a light to moderate event as the phase happens.

and all the models were on board last year even the Euro....same issues with the fast PAC flow....

[snowman19]

27 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

and all the models were on board last year even the Euro....same issues with the fast PAC flow....

The worst rug pull over the last 4 years was December, 2022. That month was primed to rival December, 2010. The only thing that ruined it was the severely negative PNA with a full latitude trough down to Baja (PAC/La Nina/-PDO issues again)…,everything else was absolutely textbook….huge west-based -NAO block, -AO, 50/50 low, -EPO, -WPO, true arctic air in place. Had the PNA even just been less negative, that month would have very likely been epic with at least one KU, if not more than one…..

[MJO812]

Steve D and Bobby Martrich says to watch for where the inverted trough sets up

[jm1220]

When one of these sets up consistently within 100 hours as a threat and doesn’t have 70 billion shortwaves flying around to mess it up and string the whole trough out, let me know. 

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

This is dejavu from last year when the models show a huge snowstorm just a few days out only to take it away. Even the euro showed a big snowstorm and lost it.

It was also around this time.

I don't think the models showed a huge snowstorm a few days out.  Maybe about 8 days ago, one or two models were showing a snowstorm.  From what I have been following, most models have been south and east since this Monday.  Most probabilities were low.  However, I feel your pain.  I was hoping things would trend westward.

[Jt17]

I don't think the models showed a huge snowstorm a few days out.  Maybe about 8 days ago, one or two models were showing a snowstorm.  From what I have been following, most models have been south and east since this Monday.  Most probabilities were low.  However, I feel your pain.  I was hoping things would trend westward.

You can scroll back and discover how inaccurate your statement is if you'd like. Or just write whatever you want. You do you!


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[Brian5671]

8 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

I don't think the models showed a huge snowstorm a few days out.  Maybe about 8 days ago, one or two models were showing a snowstorm.  From what I have been following, most models have been south and east since this Monday.  Most probabilities were low.  However, I feel your pain.  I was hoping things would trend westward.

The Tuesday 12z runs were the big ones-backed off after that...

[EastonSN+]

8 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

I don't think the models showed a huge snowstorm a few days out.  Maybe about 8 days ago, one or two models were showing a snowstorm.  From what I have been following, most models have been south and east since this Monday.  Most probabilities were low.  However, I feel your pain.  I was hoping things would trend westward.

At one point all models except the EURO op had at least a moderate hit if not a big hit. 

I have never seen that before where the entire field except one was incorrect.

 

[David-LI]

Not the best model for our area but the 12z JMA looks good

 

[jm1220]

But hey we still have the inverted trough that may/may not happen and if it does probably hits west of us. Yaaaay 

[MJO812]

16 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

I don't think the models showed a huge snowstorm a few days out.  Maybe about 8 days ago, one or two models were showing a snowstorm.  From what I have been following, most models have been south and east since this Monday.  Most probabilities were low.  However, I feel your pain.  I was hoping things would trend westward.

They were all showing a major blizzard 5 days out.

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

At one point all models except the EURO op had at least a moderate hit if not a big hit. 

I have never seen that before where the entire field except one was incorrect.

 

Euro did show a big storm 

[GaWx]

 @donsutherland1has done some excellent analyses showing that a -PNA in Feb, especially second half, isn’t negatively correlated to the chance for a big NYC snowstorm.

 I decided to just look specifically at -ENSO NYC Feb 5”+ snowstorms since 1950 and found that the NYC median was a very weak -PNA (essentially neutral) for the entire Feb during -ENSO:

19 NYC 5”+ Feb Nina or cold neutral: PNA

2/1/57 -1.2

2/7/67 +0.7

2/19/72 -0.5

2/23-4/72 -0.5

2/8/74 -0.2

2/12/75 -0.8

2/7/79 -1.1

2/19/79 -0.1

2/5-6/85 -0.8

2/2-3/96 +0.7

2/16/96 -0.4

2/22/01 +0.4

2/12/06 +1.7

2/22/08 +0.7

2/8-9/13 +0.4

2/3/14 -1.1

2/13-14/14 -1.0

2/9/17 +0.7

2/1/21 0.0

 

Median -0.2

Mean -0.1

Range +1.7 to -1.2

 So, this suggests that during -ENSO throughout Feb that a -PNA doesn’t hurt significant snow chances at NYC. That being said, the last few 0Z GEFS PNA progs have been going with ~-1.2 for the crucial period, Feb 21-22. If -1.2 were to verify, that would be at/near the lowest PNAs for a Feb La Niña 5”+ NYC snowstorm since 1950, which are -1.2 for 2/1/57, -1.1 for 2/7/79, -1.1 for 2/3/14, and -1.0 for 2/13-14/14. 

—————

 Aside: I want to also mention that I had already done a similar study for DC although I used a lower threshold for there due to lower snow climo, 3”, which like for NYC resulted in a sample of 19 storms. Here are those DC results, which are a bit more +PNA favored for -ENSO during Feb:

Median +0.3

Mean +0.2

Range +1.7 to -1.1

—————

 So, NYC has done better than DC during -ENSO Febs when there was a -PNA. In other words, unlike NYC, DC has done a little better with +PNAs than -PNAs.

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro did show a big storm 

When?   Not from Monday on....

[TJW014]

47 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Steve D and Bobby Martrich says to watch for where the inverted trough sets up

It'll set up right over his house. 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

When?   Not from Monday on....

We are talking about last years storm . Euro did show snow on Monday .

[North and West]

If this is a light, 1-3 inch event, whatever falls during the day on Sunday would be white rain until the sun sets Sunday night. Marginal temps that are above freezing during the day on 2/22….that’s white rain until night fall

are you ever happy


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[Roger Smith]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Here's his tweet on the storm:

I don't disagree with his sentiments concerning the GFS. It remains perplexing that when it came to the last major upgrade of the GFS, NCEP did not adopt the top-flight 4dVAR initialization scheme that is used by the ECMWF, GGEM, and UKMET. Weaker initialization puts the model at a disadvantage from the start. Occasionally, the model scores, but far more often than not, other models provide better solutions.

Finally, a significant or major hit has been a low probability, high-impact scenario. Unfortunately, as the lead time has diminished the overall probability of such an outcome has not increased. If anything, it has decreased. There's still uncertainty, but time is running out.

If you look carefully at the two maps, you can see a friendly dog (left) and a charging bull (right). Yes doctor I first had these thoughts at an earlier age (by ten seconds).