Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/25 - 1/26

[winterwarlock]

4 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

That was the only model that had NYC/ N NJ at less than 10", all other models just need to remain roughly steady and we are good to go. 

the euro wasnt impressive last night for much of the area....6-10

[wthrmn654]

2 minutes ago, mikeysed said:

Nam Kuchera. 

Can you show the rest of the forum area please? Thanks

[Brian5671]

Just now, winterwarlock said:

why does the 3k nam look so different and would end up with way less 

it ends at 60 hrs...still going after that

[CentralNJSnowman]

Really sharp cutoff on the NAM from about 14 inches to 7 inches (Kuchera) right around my house.  Not too concerned about that at the moment...guessing that will move one way or the other, and that the cutoff line isn't likely to be as stationary as the NAM depicts it, so that there's likely to be more gradually decreasing totals.

[Jersey_Snowhole]

The city is going to mix regardless. I think the most important thing to do now is to stop looking for n/s trends and start looking at when the mix happens and how much snow you can get before then.

[mikeysed]

1 minute ago, wthrmn654 said:

Can you show the rest of the forum area please? Thanks

See below. Add 2 inches to everywhere because its still snowing. I cant get last frame. 

[snywx]

12z NAM printing out 20-24” for the 84 corridor lol. Ehh 

[Brian5671]

[jdj5211]

I think it’s really only 2 things at this point that will determine what’s going to happen here….

1. Where does the low transfer to the coast? That transfer point makes all the difference

2. Where does the sleet line reach. Part of that is affected by the transfer location and another is how long it takes to push out the dense cold air in place at the mid levels.

One thing is very clear, the QPF has steady increased from most models averaging 0.8-1.1 to now 1.5+. That’s a substantial increase in the amount of moisture and potential snowfall. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised with 18-24 inch totals somewhere in the northern subs.


.

[ag3]

Great sign seeing the Nam get colder.

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

it ends at 60 hrs...still going after that

trying to pin this mix line down to a few miles is not going to work out this far in advance - so take it with a grain of salt today IMO

[Wxbear25]

4 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

why does the 3k nam look so different and would end up with way less 

I wouldnt worry about the 3K too much at this point. Take a look at it, see how its trending, but verbatim its not quite in its wheelhouse just yet

[WeatherGeek2025]

3 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

The city is going to mix regardless. I think the most important thing to do now is to stop looking for n/s trends and start looking at when the mix happens and how much snow you can get before then.

not if the low goes south another 20

miles

[SACRUS]

1/23 12z RGEM

 

[weatherpruf]

4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

that map makes a lot of sense since the Raritan River is considered a natural boundary in some storm setups......

it speaks for itself....but i keep reading here that these kuchera maps are unreliable.

[Wxbear25]

we want that shortwave to get stretched and shredded as it heads into the Tennessee Valley. If it maintains its integrity, it will result in stronger mid-level features which means more mid-level warming

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

it speaks for itself....but i keep reading here that these kuchera maps are unreliable.

no guidance is totally reliable in the world of weather - they all have their flaws.....

[eduggs]

NAM! Great to see the primary shift south. Sweet run! The sleet is usually north of where 3rd party graphics show it, so the 3km is probably closer to reality with that run. But it's huge to reverse the north/warming trend that it was showing for several runs! And this run introduces more lingering snows into Monday!

Also saw last night's ICON - wow. RRFS also shifted south but yikes on the Euro. Could be a big gradient across CNJ or SENY. LFG

[winterwarlock]

8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

it ends at 60 hrs...still going after that

the mix line is way north even at that time so additional accumuations are not that much....a difference of 25 miles is huge for me on the nam vs 3k....10-14 vs 4-6

[SACRUS]

 

RGEM snow arriving early Sun

 

 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, winterwarlock said:

the mix line is way north even at that time so additional accumuations are not that much....a difference of 25 miles is huge for me on the nam vs 3k....10-14 vs 4-6

Central NJ will be tough to forecast-even an hour or two different in mixing is the difference b/w 3-5 add'l inches

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

no guidance is totally reliable in the world of weather - they all have their flaws.....

hell they're not even reliable after the fact...we talk about it all the time here; in 2006 rahway reported 28 inches; i measured 18 just across the border. 

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

NAM! Great to see the primary shift south. Sweet run! The sleet is usually north of where 3rd party graphics show it, so the 3km is probably closer to reality with that run. But it's huge to reverse the north/warming trend that it was showing for several runs! And this run introduces more lingering snows into Monday!

Also saw last night's ICON - wow. RRFS also shifted south but yikes on the Euro. Could be a big gradient across CNJ or SENY. LFG

I would count on more adjustments probably south still too early to be sure about anything though IMO. I think the GFS has the best handle on this now and it has been consistent for days now.

[SACRUS]

 

[Stormlover74]

Rgem a smidge warmer or it's just faster 

[SACRUS]

 

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Rgem a smidge warmer or it's just faster 

your talking a few miles at 60 hours - not going to be reliable at this range

[BoulderWX]

1 minute ago, SACRUS said:

 

hopefully it flips back or that will be a very long period of sleet - lots of QPF though

[Joe4alb]

Primary seems to be weaker, that to me is a good sign. 

[Stormlover74]

Less snow but mostly due to lower qpf. Still 6-10