3/16/26 Severe Weather Event Thread (Day 2 MOD Risk) | Latest: 15% TOR, 60% WIND, 5% HAIL

[Brianonymous]

Thats odd, AACo schools just declared a 2hr early dismissal tomorrow.

I don't recall that ever happening. I could be wrong. Is this really going to be that bad?

[yoda]

3 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Anne Arundel Co is dismissing 2 hours early tmrw.

https://www.aacps.org/

5 p.m., 3/15/26: Due to the forecast for severe and dangerous weather, including potential tornadoes in the afternoon, all schools will close 2 hours early on Monday, March 16. There will be no afternoon half-day ECSE programs, no afternoon CAT Center programs, and no JROTC programs. In addition, all school field trips for Monday, March 16, are canceled. Students will be transported home via normal routes at dismissal times that are two hours earlier than normal. All activities beyond the regular school day, including magnet extended day programs, extracurricular activities and all Evening High School classes, will be canceled on Monday, March 16. For the status of activities sponsored by agencies other than Anne Arundel County Public Schools, please check with those agencies.

[wxmeddler]

When I bought my house, one of my asks for the realtor was no trees that could reach the house. Needless to say it was a hard find, but we did end up finding one! It also has a brand new metal roof, so the rain sounds fantastic! What I didn't notice is that a neighbors gutter goes right into a low spot near the house, so... that's my next worry.

[Eskimo Joe]

Did SPC nudge a 60% wind in the d2 mod risk, or was that always there?

[yoda]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Did SPC nudge a 60% wind in the d2 mod risk, or was that always there?

It's been there on both d2 mod risks today

[SnowenOutThere]

35 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I’ve thought about telling my family to do something similar but will wait til the line actually forms. At least head to the Starbucks lol.

What are the best places on Grounds to watch the shelf cloud come in? Thinking if I don't chase out to Orange or areas east to hopefully see some rotation or get supercell shots I might as well try to get some otherworldly shots of Grounds. 

[SnowenOutThere]

7 hours ago, Mrs.J said:

*URGENT*

So I need some help. 

The older Ms. J is currently on a film project for her senior capstone aka student run project. She is a AD, assistant Director, on the current project. Anyways part of the AD’s job is safety. They are shooting in studio on AU’s campus Media Production Center. It is in the basement of the building so thinking that is the shelter for the building anyways. She has asked me to let her know the threat level. She texted me this morning. 

“if it is seeming enough that we either may lose power or have to shelter in place worse case scenario I have to hold a safety meeting tonight to tell everyone to get here safely tomorrow and another one tomorrow with protocols."

If anyone can advise me. I have been following along with the two threads here on this set up but I am far from an expert on this. She is really big on doing her job correctly and wants to keep everyone safe so I told her I would help her with this as much as I can. Because her and I are huge weather buffs I am happy that she is on top of this as it may be something that is overlooked by others. I thank anyone in advance if I can give her a clearer understanding for her area of NW DC. 

Also crossposting here. 

[NorthArlington101]

What are the best places on Grounds to watch the shelf cloud come in? Thinking if I don't chase out to Orange or areas east to hopefully see some rotation or get supercell shots I might as well try to get some otherworldly shots of Grounds. 

Hmmm… don’t know if I’ve got a lot of good advice for you here. Not a lot of great views looking toward the mountains. Top of Culbreth Garage? Or from Clem on the balcony looking east?

[EB89]

FCPS MD closing three hours early tomorrow. 

[winter_warlock]

19 minutes ago, yoda said:

https://www.aacps.org/

5 p.m., 3/15/26: Due to the forecast for severe and dangerous weather, including potential tornadoes in the afternoon, all schools will close 2 hours early on Monday, March 16. There will be no afternoon half-day ECSE programs, no afternoon CAT Center programs, and no JROTC programs. In addition, all school field trips for Monday, March 16, are canceled. Students will be transported home via normal routes at dismissal times that are two hours earlier than normal. All activities beyond the regular school day, including magnet extended day programs, extracurricular activities and all Evening High School classes, will be canceled on Monday, March 16. For the status of activities sponsored by agencies other than Anne Arundel County Public Schools, please check with those agencies.

 Damn I've never seen a school system let out early for the risk of thunderstorms .  Damn

[LeesburgWx]

3 minutes ago, EB89 said:

FCPS MD closing three hours early tomorrow. 

I have a feeling we start seeing the dominos fall with schools now with Frederick and AA closing 2-3 hours early

[winter_warlock]

Just now, LeesburgWx said:

I have a feeling we start seeing the dominos fall with schools now with Frederick and AA closing 2-3 hours early

I agree.  Never seen that happen ...but I'm from a different time . Hell I graduated in 1985 ! I'm olddddddd 

[WxUSAF]

Hoco schools sent an email and text to say they're monitoring 

[yoda]

Washington County MD schools closing 2 hours early tomorrow 

[Scraff]

Where’s @bnchoOnly a snow beast, but no interest in severe!? Come on dude. It’s good to be well rounded! And yes—this is how I have envisioned you to look like all winter. 

[CAPE]

33 minutes ago, wxmeddler said:

When I bought my house, one of my asks for the realtor was no trees that could reach the house. Needless to say it was a hard find, but we did end up finding one! It also has a brand new metal roof, so the rain sounds fantastic! What I didn't notice is that a neighbors gutter goes right into a low spot near the house, so... that's my next worry.

I probably have at least 50 trees that could reach my house but luckily the only close call(other than some branches) was an oak that fell during Irene. The very top branches barely brushed the back of the house.

[Ji]

Nam 3k Says why are schools closing

[WxUSAF]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

Nam 3k Says why are schools closing

Maybe for the snow?

[North Balti Zen]

Harford County schools also closing three hours early.

[yoda]

Charles County schools 2 hour early closing

King George (VA) schools closing at noon

[Bob Chill]

Tomorrow has the feel of an overperformer and I hope I'm wrong heh...

Wind advisory hoisted for my yard tomorrow for gusts to 50mph so any severe that develops in that environment is going to push stuff around and over lol. Chainsaws will be getting a workout me thinks. 

[T. August]

Too many trees here to be excited about severe anymore. One went through the house in the 2024 microburst, and just the other day when it was windy a branch fell and smashed the windshield on my car. And that was some bs 30mph stuff.

[32º]

1 hour ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

My house is surrounded by monster trees.  We can go to the basement during the line if it looks really bad. 

Ah but that would make for a great rope swing. Not a weather statement but could not help myself.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, 32º said:

Ah but that would make for a great rope swing. Not a weather statement but could not help myself.

We have a great rope swing! Kids launching on it all the time. 

[stormtracker]

I mean, it ain't snow...but it's weather.  Let's do it right.

[mappy]

Balt Co 3hrs early dismissal tomorrow 

[BristowWx]

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I mean, it ain't snow...but it's weather.  Let's do it right.

Why do we excel at anything non snow?  Wind, excessive heat, severe t storms.  If  its frozen it’s a snooze fest

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

Why do we excel at anything non snow?  Wind, excessive heat, severe t storms.  If  its frozen it’s a snooze fest

This is sad, because it's true.    Severe is a lock tomorrow.  If it was a blizzard, we'd be watching the snow sink south of us by now.

[WxWatcher007]

3 hours ago, wxmeddler said:

FOLKS

Exceptional Synoptics call for exceptional care, and in the equinox seasons if you've got big numbers on the cold side, you should be prepared for big numbers on the warm side. This system is no exception. CAM guidance from this morning's 12z runs show a variety of scenarios and evolutions. 

When in doubt about storm mode or coverage, falling back on the synoptics is usually the best forecast. In this scenario, the synoptic evolution is clear. A large mid-latitude trough exhibiting two distinct mid/high level wind-maxima rounding the base of the trough is creating a primary low through the upper mid-west while the secondary (later) wind maxima emerges over the southeast and quickly ejects through the Mid-Atlantic. Ahead of this second wind maxima large scale ascent through upper-level divergence will cause mass flux response from the Carolina's northward into southern PA. As the secondary wind maxima / embedded trough tilts negative an area of lower pressure will develop east of the blue ridge in the Piedmont region of North Carolina and quickly traverse northward. Along this embedded low, guidance that has taken this solution has backing wind vectors in the lowest 1km relative to the Bunkers right motion. This produces large curvature hodographs in the lowest 1-2km's followed by a storm relative weakening in the mid-levels, with exceptional ventilation in the upper levels. 

The kinematics from the Blue Ridge to about the US301 corridor from North Carolina to the M/D line in our region are exceptional. Storms that form ahead of the main pre-frontal line that exceed 30kft tops or start producing significant amounts of lightning will be capable and likely will produce long-tracked significant tornadoes. A violent (EF-4) level tornado cannot be ruled out either if instability increases due to pre-frontal warming / breakout sunshine. Storm motions will exceed 50kts and while potentially photogenic, will be un-chaseable except for those who position themselves ahead of the storm 20-30 miles in advance.

The highest risk will be from about noon in North Carolina Piedmont to about 7pm in Southern Maryland. Storm coverage in this area ahead of the main pre-frontal trough / squall is uncertain and will have to wait till tomorrow morning to see what debris / storm outflow from the ongoing convection off-shore of South Carolina brings northward. 

For the pre-frontal squall line: Embedded supercells that produce narrow corridors of 60-80 mph winds seem likely in RFD regions. Especially storms that form ahead of the squall line and get absorbed / merged in with the squall line have the potential to produce strong gusts. Power outages in these narrow corridors (3-5 mi wide) could be substantial. The lack of leaf out on the trees up our way will be beneficial, still, the strengths of the gusts in the enhanced regions will be enough to down branches onto lines. Given the unseasonable cold of the airmass behind the cold front, warming shelters and means of finding warmth Monday into Tuesday as power is restored will be of concern.

If I have time this evening, I'll do a historical perspective and get some analogs.

@Mrs.J

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Why do we excel at anything non snow?  Wind, excessive heat, severe t storms.  If  its frozen it’s a snooze fest

Idk, seems like we routinely fail at severe. Mostly garden variety storms with some heavy rain, modest wind gusts, and some decent T&L.