“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I was just showing the seclusion at H85. The H6-7 fronto gets even up to here as the mid/upper lows weaken and widen. But there’s like 70kt of inflow that hits a brick wall PHL-NYC-HFD

Right, so not the insane rates they get to the southwest, but we should still get a major event

[MuddyWx]

15 minutes ago, MegaMike said:

Mesos should definitely be weighted more as you get closer to an event... Small scale features impacts sensible weather and courser models cannot resolve them/assimilate them well. A lot of members repeat this tidbit each storm, but the s need their dopamine fix. 

Here's how NCEP weighs the models for the NBM (snowfall specifically because I'm obsessed with it). Regardless, the weights won't vary much by variable. Since we're ~20-42hrs away from the event, I sorted that column by importance (values are in %). Note: The top 5 model weights are all mesoscale modeling systems and the GFS (diagnostic) is only weighted by 3%.

Interesting... wonder if it's changed at all with the AI models? Also, why no Euro OP, RGEM/Hi Res, UKMET etc. Could be a fun side project to make a better blend with not so much of an NCEP focus 

[weatherwiz]

I still think the models are breaking that down a bit too quickly 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

I still think the models are breaking that down a bit too quickly 

Breaking what down?

[weatherwiz]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Breaking what down?

the banding 

[metagraphica]

33 minutes ago, hooralph said:

Maynard, MA. 1978. 

But looking to tug it SE it a bit. 

Somewhere my Dad has slides with pictures of me similar to this. I gotta dig them out sometime and scan them into digital.

[ineedsnow]

0z HRRR out to 20 and looks almost exact to 18z so far

[MegaMike]

11 minutes ago, dendrite said:

A lot of those mesos are usually out in left field…especially the convective allowing ones. 

For 20-42hrs? I agree that they can get pretty erratic past one daytime cycle and I've mentioned that before. It's a weird gray zone for modeling (24-48hrs), but I'm sure NCEP created those weights with solid reasoning/evidence/support. 

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, MuddyWx said:

Interesting... wonder if it's changed at all with the AI models? Also, why no Euro OP, RGEM, UKMET etc. Could be a fun side project to make a better blend with not so much of an NCEP focus 

I don’t even find the FV3, ARWs, and SREFs useable. RAP I forget exists. HRRR  starts falling off a cliff after 12-24hr.

But I’m sure the NWS likes it because the high res must help them fill their zones in the short range.

[UnitedWx]

51 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

That's hot!

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

the banding 

Oh yea...I'm sure the Nemo 8"/hr or whatever will be SW of me....but I doubt I get under a foot.

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, MegaMike said:

For 20-42hrs? I agree that they can get pretty erratic past one daytime cycle and I've mentioned that before. It's a weird gray zone for modeling (24-48hrs), but I'm sure NCEP created those weights with solid reasoning/evidence/support. 

More like anything past 0hr.  

I’m not the only one here that feels that way too. I know Will goes on SREFs rants because they pulled the spectral RSMs out for the ARWs.

[VivaManchVegas]

39 minutes ago, weathafella said:

My recollection of ‘78 is being taunted by my friend while I was crying from my home in LA.  First leg of my trip descending into Atlanta.  One more leg and I’ll be home.  As I explained to my wife, I’m not a womanizer, I’m reasonably sober and we’re kind to each other.  I’m running out of time and I’m not missing this one.

[dendrite]

And I’m not trying to pigpile on the hires stuff. I think they have a purpose and are good in some areas. But too often they seem to start getting synoptically off when you start getting past 12hr.

[MuddyWx]

someone way smarter than me should make a board approved weenie model blend

[weatherwiz]

ka-boom 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, MuddyWx said:

someone way smarter than me should make a board approved weenie model blend

Dynamic weighting, too...if you're on the fringes like I am, it's 80% SREFS, but if you fear taint...it's GFS/NOGAPS-heavy. 

[weatherwiz]

This is absolutely disgusting on the Cape. That's 40+ dbz   

[MegaMike]

6 minutes ago, MuddyWx said:

Interesting... wonder if it's changed at all with the AI models? Also, why no Euro OP, RGEM/Hi Res, UKMET etc. Could be a fun side project to make a better blend with not so much of an NCEP focus 

The table comes from NCEP. I just formatted them differently so I can sort the weights.

My opinions:

They need a modeling system to encompass the entire country, so the HRDPS wouldn't be applicable.

I think the ECMWF is included as one of the 50 EPS members.

(a) Too soon for the AI models as they recently became operational.

(b) I'm guessing they didn't include the RGEM because of a licensing/boundary issue (cells close the boundaries can produce wacky results). 

(c) The ECMWF outperform the UKMET so no need to include it.

(a+b+c) More importantly, everything must be post-processed onto a constant grid - it's not worth including a single diagnostic model when the ensemble itself already composes of 80 members. You'd just be complicating things with little in return if you include modeling systems with different dxdy configurations.

 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

This is absolutely disgusting on the Cape. That's 40+ dbz   

Bright banding/wet snow

[weathafella]

27 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Gotta show some love to the WSSI

lol…I’m just inside extreme.

[WxWatcher007]

Going with high impact to locally extreme impact event. 

CTRV at greatest risk of falling below the floor. Lollipop of 30 possible somewhere in eastern CT. 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, dendrite said:

Bright banding/wet snow

My initial thought was something along those lines but the soundings are absolutely nuts. Kind of reminds me of 2013 when we were seeing radar returns like that but it was all snow 

[tavwtby]

48 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

amazing shot!

yeah my dad has a similar one of me in Waterbury during clean up, we lived in very close 3 family homes and there was a drift up to the second floor porch in our backyard, the way the wind whipped and swirled amazing drifts, I remember standing under a wave drift after 96 clearing for my grandma, just hoping this stays course and we get good banding rotting over head here puking flakes for hours...

[VivaManchVegas]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Bright banding/wet snow

The poor evergreens.  Don't have a chance

[SeanInWayland]

1 hour ago, vortex95 said:

40" was common in eastern MA and RI, just did not have the degree of spotter/co-op observers back them.  A fairly reliable measurement from someone I know got about 44" total in an open field in Woburn MA.  Given the how the area between 128-495 NW of BOS tends to have a local precip max in many nor'easters, this is not unreasonable. 

I recall reading in a book about the blizzard of '78 that there were two local maxima around Boston--Burlington with 50" and Foxboro-Sharon with close to the same. So yeah, other storms have a long way to go to match 78.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Going with high impact to locally extreme impact event. 

CTRV at greatest risk of falling below the floor. Lollipop of 30 possible somewhere in eastern CT. 

Fantastic work Donny !

[40/70 Benchmark]

30 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Gotta show some love to the WSSI

Major here...jives with what I just said. 

[ineedsnow]

still think all of SNE is going to get smoked

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, SeanInWayland said:

I recall reading in a book about the blizzard of '78 that there were two local maxima around Boston--Burlington with 50" and Foxboro-Sharon with close to the same. So yeah, other storms have a long way to go to match 78.

This storm is not gonna stall and gravy snow for 20 inches after the fact ‘case anybody is wondering if this is gonna match that

unless the modeling changes