40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 12 minutes ago, dendrite said: I was just showing the seclusion at H85. The H6-7 fronto gets even up to here as the mid/upper lows weaken and widen. But there’s like 70kt of inflow that hits a brick wall PHL-NYC-HFD Right, so not the insane rates they get to the southwest, but we should still get a major event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MuddyWx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 15 minutes ago, MegaMike said: Mesos should definitely be weighted more as you get closer to an event... Small scale features impacts sensible weather and courser models cannot resolve them/assimilate them well. A lot of members repeat this tidbit each storm, but the s need their dopamine fix. Here's how NCEP weighs the models for the NBM (snowfall specifically because I'm obsessed with it). Regardless, the weights won't vary much by variable. Since we're ~20-42hrs away from the event, I sorted that column by importance (values are in %). Note: The top 5 model weights are all mesoscale modeling systems and the GFS (diagnostic) is only weighted by 3%. Interesting... wonder if it's changed at all with the AI models? Also, why no Euro OP, RGEM/Hi Res, UKMET etc. Could be a fun side project to make a better blend with not so much of an NCEP focus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 I still think the models are breaking that down a bit too quickly 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, weatherwiz said: I still think the models are breaking that down a bit too quickly Breaking what down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Breaking what down? the banding 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 33 minutes ago, hooralph said: Maynard, MA. 1978. But looking to tug it SE it a bit. Somewhere my Dad has slides with pictures of me similar to this. I gotta dig them out sometime and scan them into digital. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 0z HRRR out to 20 and looks almost exact to 18z so far 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 11 minutes ago, dendrite said: A lot of those mesos are usually out in left field…especially the convective allowing ones. For 20-42hrs? I agree that they can get pretty erratic past one daytime cycle and I've mentioned that before. It's a weird gray zone for modeling (24-48hrs), but I'm sure NCEP created those weights with solid reasoning/evidence/support. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 7 minutes ago, MuddyWx said: Interesting... wonder if it's changed at all with the AI models? Also, why no Euro OP, RGEM, UKMET etc. Could be a fun side project to make a better blend with not so much of an NCEP focus I don’t even find the FV3, ARWs, and SREFs useable. RAP I forget exists. HRRR starts falling off a cliff after 12-24hr. But I’m sure the NWS likes it because the high res must help them fill their zones in the short range. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 51 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: That's hot! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: the banding Oh yea...I'm sure the Nemo 8"/hr or whatever will be SW of me....but I doubt I get under a foot. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, MegaMike said: For 20-42hrs? I agree that they can get pretty erratic past one daytime cycle and I've mentioned that before. It's a weird gray zone for modeling (24-48hrs), but I'm sure NCEP created those weights with solid reasoning/evidence/support. More like anything past 0hr. I’m not the only one here that feels that way too. I know Will goes on SREFs rants because they pulled the spectral RSMs out for the ARWs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VivaManchVegas Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 39 minutes ago, weathafella said: My recollection of ‘78 is being taunted by my friend while I was crying from my home in LA. First leg of my trip descending into Atlanta. One more leg and I’ll be home. As I explained to my wife, I’m not a womanizer, I’m reasonably sober and we’re kind to each other. I’m running out of time and I’m not missing this one. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 And I’m not trying to pigpile on the hires stuff. I think they have a purpose and are good in some areas. But too often they seem to start getting synoptically off when you start getting past 12hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MuddyWx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 someone way smarter than me should make a board approved weenie model blend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 ka-boom 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, MuddyWx said: someone way smarter than me should make a board approved weenie model blend Dynamic weighting, too...if you're on the fringes like I am, it's 80% SREFS, but if you fear taint...it's GFS/NOGAPS-heavy. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 This is absolutely disgusting on the Cape. That's 40+ dbz 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 6 minutes ago, MuddyWx said: Interesting... wonder if it's changed at all with the AI models? Also, why no Euro OP, RGEM/Hi Res, UKMET etc. Could be a fun side project to make a better blend with not so much of an NCEP focus The table comes from NCEP. I just formatted them differently so I can sort the weights. My opinions: They need a modeling system to encompass the entire country, so the HRDPS wouldn't be applicable. I think the ECMWF is included as one of the 50 EPS members. (a) Too soon for the AI models as they recently became operational. (b) I'm guessing they didn't include the RGEM because of a licensing/boundary issue (cells close the boundaries can produce wacky results). (c) The ECMWF outperform the UKMET so no need to include it. (a+b+c) More importantly, everything must be post-processed onto a constant grid - it's not worth including a single diagnostic model when the ensemble itself already composes of 80 members. You'd just be complicating things with little in return if you include modeling systems with different dxdy configurations. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: This is absolutely disgusting on the Cape. That's 40+ dbz Bright banding/wet snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 27 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Gotta show some love to the WSSI lol…I’m just inside extreme. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Going with high impact to locally extreme impact event. CTRV at greatest risk of falling below the floor. Lollipop of 30 possible somewhere in eastern CT. 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, dendrite said: Bright banding/wet snow My initial thought was something along those lines but the soundings are absolutely nuts. Kind of reminds me of 2013 when we were seeing radar returns like that but it was all snow 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 48 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: amazing shot! yeah my dad has a similar one of me in Waterbury during clean up, we lived in very close 3 family homes and there was a drift up to the second floor porch in our backyard, the way the wind whipped and swirled amazing drifts, I remember standing under a wave drift after 96 clearing for my grandma, just hoping this stays course and we get good banding rotting over head here puking flakes for hours... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VivaManchVegas Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Bright banding/wet snow The poor evergreens. Don't have a chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanInWayland Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 hour ago, vortex95 said: 40" was common in eastern MA and RI, just did not have the degree of spotter/co-op observers back them. A fairly reliable measurement from someone I know got about 44" total in an open field in Woburn MA. Given the how the area between 128-495 NW of BOS tends to have a local precip max in many nor'easters, this is not unreasonable. I recall reading in a book about the blizzard of '78 that there were two local maxima around Boston--Burlington with 50" and Foxboro-Sharon with close to the same. So yeah, other storms have a long way to go to match 78. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Going with high impact to locally extreme impact event. CTRV at greatest risk of falling below the floor. Lollipop of 30 possible somewhere in eastern CT. Fantastic work Donny ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 30 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Gotta show some love to the WSSI Major here...jives with what I just said. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 still think all of SNE is going to get smoked 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 5 minutes ago, SeanInWayland said: I recall reading in a book about the blizzard of '78 that there were two local maxima around Boston--Burlington with 50" and Foxboro-Sharon with close to the same. So yeah, other storms have a long way to go to match 78. This storm is not gonna stall and gravy snow for 20 inches after the fact ‘case anybody is wondering if this is gonna match that unless the modeling changes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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