Winter Storm Threat Feb 22-24th

[SACRUS]

21 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Ukie 

 

looks similar to 12z same time - havent looked at 500 to compare

[weatherpruf]

30 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Local news 12 met leaning towards gfs solution. 

must need the ratings

[MJO812]

Gefs

[Nibor]

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Ukie would have been good

Where those two pieces of energy at the bottom of the trough complete their phase determines everything. Earlier, we get hit. Later it’s out over the ocean.

[EastonSN+]

So the GEFS changed from 12z in two ways.

1.) Moved NW of 12z

2.) Spread actually widened, with the western members a touch further west.

[Snowman92]

News media are already saying "blockbuster storm to shut down school districts"

 

Tomorrow the supermarkets will get swarmed lmao

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, Snowman92 said:

News media are already saying "blockbuster storm to shut down school districts"

 

Tomorrow the supermarkets will get swarmed lmao

and then when it doesn't happen they will say "They are never right"

[Mail Man]

18z Euro is running

[nycsnow]

That twitter met mark margavage has been saying for days this is gonna come north he’s using the norm Macdonald rule… really interested to see how that works out for him lol

[Cobalt]

1 minute ago, nycsnow said:

That twitter met mark margavage has been saying for days this is gonna come north he’s using the norm Macdonald rule… really interested to see how that works out for him lol

My main fear with that is that he's got the late comedian in mind instead of the meteorologist 

[Wxbear25]

34 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

looks similar to 12z same time - havent looked at 500 to compare

Our western shortwaves are notably closer to phasing than 18z, though heights ahead of them are slightly slower ahead of them

[Mail Man]

I'm hearing AI Euro looks better

[Nibor]

AI euro is west. Not as good as the GFS but it brings sizeable qpf especially to the Jersey Shore and eastern Long Island.

[Mail Man]

Does anyone have access to the 18z euro??? 

[MJO812]

Holy shit euro AI

[Nibor]

At hr 51 more phasing on the euro...

[nycsnow]

Just now, Mail Man said:

Does anyone have access to the 18z euro??? 

Yea it’s rolling on pivotal now early in the run

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Holy shit euro AI

Lmao

[nycsnow]

Euro ai 500 already better @ 60

[MJO812]

Euro is about to cave

[EastonSN+]

5 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EURO AI

 

Courtesy of the ma forum.

[hinyho]

GFS has the system digging the energy down like an arrow.  Euro has the energy separated.  Not much difference in the upper levels.  At the surface they are dramatically different.  Pick your horse...

[Mail Man]

Is the Euro actually going to cave????!!!!!????!!!!

[Nibor]

Bro...

[nycsnow]

Euro ai change in one run @ 50@ is wild

[Mail Man]

Just now, nycsnow said:

Euro ai change in one run @ 50@ is wild

Woah big time change

[donsutherland1]

The 18z ECMWF-AIFS has thrown a lifeline to the GFS. Overall, a much snowier run.

[Wxbear25]

Lolololololol

[nycsnow]

[Nibor]