Winter Storm Threat Feb 22-24th

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

They do usually move east over time but sometimes they never happen at all. Probably the least predictable of the different features. 

This reminds me of the invt that hit eastern NE recently. Also connected to a strong coastal low.

[WeatherGeek2025]

Reggie?

[mikem81]

3 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

Reggie?

Looks pretty terrible so far

[Snowlover11]

So gfs vs everyone else? Yikes.

[MJO812]

Im usually the one to hold out hope but I think the gfs folds. The pattern is too messy for a big phase. We have a decaying block but we need the pacific to cooperate and looks like it might not.

 

It would be another story if we had blocking and a good pacific to slow this flow.

[Wxbear25]

I’m not sure which is more insufferable, WeatherGeeks unbridled enthusiasm or several posters unbridled pessimism

I guess at least I want WG’s head-canon to play out in real life lol

[Stormlover74]

Just now, Wxbear25 said:

I’m not sure which is more insufferable, WeatherGeeks unbridled enthusiasm or several posters unbridled pessimism

I guess at least I want WG’s head-canon to play out in real life lol

I see no pessimism. I see people who have a clue that the gfs is crap

[coastalplainsnowman]

47 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

TWC just had a great set of visuals/animation for both the GFS and Euro runs and also demonstrating what's "steering" all of this, i.e., the big upper level low/trough moving south from Alaska towards off of Seattle, which drives the upper level ridge in the Rockies which drives the upper level trough in the eastern US which our eventual surface low rides along, showing how if the trough is too "flat" the storm heads way SE of the benchmark and we get a whiff or not much (Euro), while if the trough is sharper/deeper it drives that surface low NE-ward towards the benchmark and we get a bomb (GFS). 

As one might expect, without enough data (and conflicting data) on all of these features (especially that Gulf of Alaska low), the TWC is predicting a bit of a blend of the GFS/Euro, leaning more towards the Euro, but still giving some heavy snow for the coast and less inland, somewhat like the Euro-AIFS, with maybe 3-5" for 95/NW and 5-8" SE of 95 to the coast.  Will try to post the video, but for now, here's the pic of their thoughts for the storm: it's not a formal forecast, but their purple is usually 5-8" and dark blue is usually 3-5".  It's not a bad "forecast" IMO.  

As TWC, Accuweather, etc love to do, they make it impossible for ~15 million people, and by far the largest viewership area on that map, to have any idea what they are thinking for their area.  They feel it is more important to remind me in giant font that I live in New York.  Not that I'm hanging on TWC's word, especially 4 days out, but either make your forecast clear or don't bother with the map.

[EastonSN+]

Getting closer (trough).

[MJO812]

Wow steve D will be right again

[kat5hurricane]

6 minutes ago, Wxbear25 said:

I’m not sure which is more insufferable, WeatherGeeks unbridled enthusiasm or several posters unbridled pessimism

I guess at least I want WG’s head-canon to play out in real life lol

There's no pessimism. It's a recognition of pattern, seasonal trends and two other things, when the Euro locks in on a solution for days despite some of its flaws it's usually best to roll with it and when the GFS is an outlier it's best to ignore it.

[Wxbear25]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I see no pessimism. I see people who have a clue that the gfs is crap

Not believing the GFS’s solution is one thing

Saying the threat is over/dead/gone is another

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Wow steve D will be right again

go with the seasonal trend of nothing when it comes to coastals and you'd be right 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, Wxbear25 said:

Not believing the GFS’s solution is one thing

Saying the threat is over/dead/gone is another

Ok its hanging by a thread

[nycsnow]

Icon still a miss but did bump n/w a bit

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

go with the seasonal trend of nothing when it comes to coastals and you'd be right 

We need a pacific reversal.

[WeatherGeek2025]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Wow steve D will be right again

how? The storm hasn't happened and we're still 80 hours away from the actual event? lmao

[WestBabylonWeather]

Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

how? The storm hasn't happened and we're still 80 hours away from the actual event? lmao

Euro never “having” it was a red flag. Always is always will be 

[mob1]

ICON bumped NW but the RGEM went the other way. This threat is on life support (at least in terms of a significant event). 

[Wxbear25]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Ok its hanging by a thread

Which is a completely different and reasonable take, since it implies there’s still potential

Personally, I’m slightly more optimistic only because that 500 setup is just so explosive, at this point we’re talking more about orientation of the energy driving around the base of the trough than anything else

and that timing will be variable from run to run. The GFS really turns it northward and tucks it in, closing it off way south. The ECMWF opens it up and shoots it eastward focusing the cyclone further east

If I HAD to pick one, I’d lean towards a brush or near miss, but I’m fully cognizant of the fact that we’re dealing with something that isn’t so far off as to be insurmountable

[Brian5671]

Just now, WestBabylonWeather said:

Euro never “having” it was a red flag. Always is always will be 

Said it a million times but people hear what they want to hear.  We've rarely if ever had a SECS/MECS w/o Euro being on board at this time range.

[WeatherGeek2025]

7 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Icon still a miss but did bump n/w a bit

it looks worse

[MarcmmKU]

1 hour ago, Nibor said:

You can keep saying this all you want it doesn't change the fact that it's a much better skilled model than the GFS and CMC. Unless it corrects west it's a major red flag.

Yeah I'm not buying this threat at all until euro totally caves to a gfs like solution (which it wont). We've never had a good storm without euro on board this close.

[mattinpa]

1 minute ago, MarcmmKU said:

Yeah I'm not buying this threat at all until euro totally caves to a gfs like solution (which it wont). We've never had a good storm without euro on board this close.

Well there’s a first time for everything. Have to think a grazer or miss at this point but still potential to follow this far out. 

[mob1]

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

it looks worse

Both can be true. It definitely bumped west but has less precipitation. 

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, mob1 said:

ICON bumped NW but the RGEM went the other way. This threat is on life support (at least in terms of a significant event). 

I’d say graze is the most likely outcome at the moment, maybe low advisory level stat padder type event but for something bigger we need more consistent NW bumps, not wishy washy that then goes back SE next run. 

[Wxbear25]

10 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

There's no pessimism. It's a recognition of pattern, seasonal trends and two other things, when the Euro locks in on a solution for days despite some of its flaws it's usually best to roll with it and when the GFS is an outlier it's best to ignore it.

I was a forecaster back in 2014 when the Euro completely crapped it’s pants on a coastal low within 24 hours

granted, that was a fundamental issue with the input of the model since the SST’s were egregiously incorrect off the coast of the Carolinas, IIRC, but it’s not infallible

I Left the weather game a long time ago, and have forgotten a good bit over time since I’ve focused on my new career, but I can tell you models don’t make the weather

[nycsnow]

5 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

it looks worse

Low is west I’m not looking at precip field 

 

[nycsnow]

Icon eps west bit

[Wxbear25]

5 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

it looks worse

It’s not worse. Don’t worry about precipitation depiction verbatim, worry about what it looks like aloft where it did improve.

we’re getting to the point where the surface and precip depiction will actually matter, but we’re not there just yet