Winter Storm Threat Feb 22-24th

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Icon going to be like the Euro. Imagine if it beats all the models.

We shall see

IF it's like the euro it's a miss then.   

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

IF it's like the euro it's a miss then.   

Its not 

[EasternLI]

That thing was just about to go nuts I think.. 

[SnowGoose69]

15 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

That thing was just about to go nuts I think.. 

 

Thats what I took from it.  I think that may have gotten pretty wrapped up on future hours

[SACRUS]

 

Looked good overall - tad s/e weaker 12z 126 vs 18z 120 but seemed like a slower phase and would be a a nice hit FWIW at 120 on the ICOn anywas.

 

[Brasiluvsnow]

GFS running now,,,,,,,,,tick tock

[EasternLI]

I must say, really liking the trend for the more amplified ridge out west leading into this, across multiple models. And that still seems to be continuing too.

[Brasiluvsnow]

GFS too tight to the coast at 126,,,am I wrong ?

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

GFS too tight to the coast at 126,,,am I wrong ?

 

[Nibor]

Slow mover

[SACRUS]

 

2/17 18z GFS total QPF

 

>1.1 into NYC

[NEG NAO]

8 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

GFS too tight to the coast at 126,,,am I wrong ?

of course the configuration of the precip field is going to change on all models - still ends up being a MECS for most of the metro

[MJO812]

Gfs crushes CNJ

[Brian5671]

9 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

GFS too tight to the coast at 126,,,am I wrong ?

it's east of 12z but who cares at this lead time

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs crushes CNJ

take precip totals with a grain of salt this far out - locations of heavier precip will change run to run and model to model

[SnoSki14]

It's ok if the op models aren't giving us a bullseye yet. However we need to see continued improvement on the ensembles. 

[mob1]

Forget the tight precipitation field for a second - verbatim, this would be awesome. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

GFS ai is still a big hit!

[EasternLI]

Keep getting these kinds of looks at 500mb. We can work out the rest later.

[Jt17]

it's east of 12z but who cares at this lead time

Stronger and slightly more snow into nyc this run


.

[Metasequoia]

18Z GFS wasn't east of 12Z, it was a bit weaker. Could be more noise than signal at this point.

[TriPol]

Remember, the last storm showed suppressed to the south until Weds-Thurs and then it moved so far north we got sleet. 

[MANDA]

2 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Keep getting these kinds of looks at 500mb. We can work out the rest later.

Not worth quibbling about at this point by any means but if I could change things I'd like the ridge out west sharper and a little further west and the 500 closed low off the east coast to be w.s.w. by about 30 miles to ensure more inland locations (me) cash in fully. Otherwise I'll take it for now.  For my area west and NW I like a surface low track west of the BM....more toward KBID/KMVY.  Long ways to go for a final solution.  Carry on.

[MJO812]

[SACRUS]

 

GEFS a bit west  / wetter 18z vs 12z

 

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Noticeable improvement which is good. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

14 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

Stronger and slightly more snow into nyc this run


.

 

14 minutes ago, Metasequoia said:

18Z GFS wasn't east of 12Z, it was a bit weaker. Could be more noise than signal at this point.

okay

[weatherpruf]

i'm seeing warm temps in my forecasts.....but i've seen that change on a dime too over the years....

[SACRUS]

18z GFS AI AIGFS

 

 

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

18z GFS AI AIFGS Total QPF 2/22 -2/23-24