February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: Buckle Up!

[Bob Chill]

7 minutes ago, 87storms said:

It’s wild seeing Charlotte getting a flush hit right now while we can only muster storms that are majority sleet. There’s something truly off with this pattern for big snows in the MA.

Big blocks (especially the NAO) have a history of this. Some of the dmv's coldest/driest periods have happened during strong neg naos. Carolinas biggest storms have occurred during the same. The flip side is some of the biggest dmv storms have happened during the breakdown of big blocks. 

Based on history,  were prob not even at the halfway point of the current blocking cycle and it will oscillate. The next 3-4 weeks are also the dmv's prime snow climo. I'm pretty optimistic for snow chances over the next month and (imho) chances for a large storm are above to much above normal. 

[Terpeast]

Both cmc and euro want to bring a clipper next friday, showing precip here on the southern fringes 

[bncho]

9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Big blocks (especially the NAO) have a history of this. Some of the dmv's coldest/driest periods have happened during strong neg naos. Carolinas biggest storms have occurred during the same. The flip side is some of the biggest dmv storms have happened during the breakdown of big blocks. 

Based on history,  were prob not even at the halfway point of the current blocking cycle and it will oscillate. The next 3-4 weeks are also the dmv's prime snow climo. I'm pretty optimistic for snow chances over the next month and (imho) chances for a large storm are above to much above normal. 

Doesn't the flip to a slightly -PNA/+EPO regime counteract the dry issue with strong -NAOs, while also guaranteeing that most systems that hit us will be cold enough for snow (due to that strong -NAO)?

[87storms]

16 minutes ago, Kay said:

Haha no. But did you measure? Majority snow.

Not qpf. The Carolina’s are showing us how it’s really done.

[87storms]

15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Big blocks (especially the NAO) have a history of this. Some of the dmv's coldest/driest periods have happened during strong neg naos. Carolinas biggest storms have occurred during the same. The flip side is some of the biggest dmv storms have happened during the breakdown of big blocks. 

Based on history,  we’re prob not even at the halfway point of the current blocking cycle and it will oscillate. The next 3-4 weeks are also the dmv's prime snow climo. I'm pretty optimistic for snow chances over the next month and (imho) chances for a large storm are above to much above normal. 

I’m optimistic on a backloaded winter, but it’s definitely getting to the point of “go time”. Gotta get that EC trough further west somehow.

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

It would be, and probably the worst case scenario in terms of impacts. With 2” liquid already frozen on the ground, a rainer would induce melting and flooding then a massize refreeze when cold rushes back in. 

Don’t forget ice jams and ice jam flooding. 

[Kay]

5 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Not qpf. The Carolina’s are showing us how it’s really done.

Hey everyone's entitled to have their critiques of a storm. I prefer 100% pure cold powder of course. We all do. But I just can't perceive this storm as majority sleet. (I also happen to believe we were super lucky to get a hit, when we did/at all). We're all different. Imma enjoy the view of qpf outside my window 

[Bob Chill]

19 minutes ago, bncho said:

Doesn't the flip to a slightly -PNA/+EPO regime counteract the dry issue with strong -NAOs, while also guaranteeing that most systems that hit us will be cold enough for snow (due to that strong -NAO)?

Practically every single one of our snow events has fine details that no hemispheric index can account for. Basically chaos, luck, and timing factors. Those same factors can produce a snow event when basically all indicies are working against us. That said, odds favor higher probabilities of winter weather vs rain when the indicies are in total sync. 

I personally don't like amplified +pna/-nao periods as much as others here. It's a good combo for a noreaster but it's also a good combo for non-stop cold/dry frontal passages. I personally prefer a more neutral or slightly negative PNA with blocking help because it opens the door for more widespread precipitation across the eastern half of the conus.

You've probably heard me talk about the "big bowl" pattern. That's my favorite for tracking because there are multiple ways to score even if the risk is higher for mixed events or cutters. I like action more than big dog chasing and that's why 2013-14 is one of my favorite winters of all time. I have a bias so keep that in mind when I like what I see. A slightly negative pna with a neg ao/nao combo is a big bowl pattern. We might be heading for one and I personally like that even though it opens the door for bad tracks and rain even with blocking. 

CPC d8-14 analogs are pretty loaded with winter wx chances

 

Late jan/early feb 2021 has a big noreaster but MD didn't do well. Analogs shouldn't be used to predict that level of detail. The fact that a noreaster existed during the analog period is a big plus. We often say "I'd take my chances with a repeat of a storm like that" which is a good way of looking at it. No 2 storms are alike and even though Boxing Day 2010 was a gut punch, I'd take my chances with another shot at a similar but not identical setup.

The list above also includes late Jan 04, mid Feb 2007, early Feb 95, and late Jan 2009. All of those periods produced winter wx in the DMV. IIRC, mid Feb 2010 also had a big coastal that impacted areas to our NE. The above list is yelling that a potential east coast storm is on the horizon 

 

[stormtracker]

Euro has it, looks light tho

[NorthArlington101]

Euro has it, looks light tho

AI had it but literally a dusting really… T-.5”.

AI liked the Friday clipper better as well

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

AI had it but literally a dusting really… T-.5”.

AI liked the Friday clipper better as well

yeah, two panels of .010 lol

[Ji]

yeah, two panels of .010 lol

[Terpeast]

Euro ai takes multiple shots at us. At least one will hit, imho

[MDSnow93]

6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

AI had it but literally a dusting really… T-.5”.

AI liked the Friday clipper better as well

Am I remembering correctly that the AI models aren't as good at qpf?

[NorthArlington101]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

Clipper after clipper. I can deal with it 

1 minute ago, MDSnow93 said:

Am I remembering correctly that the AI models aren't as good at qpf?

They aren’t gonna perform well with mesoscale details but I’d be okay trusting its general output at this range. Whether it’s .05 or .15 of snow is a minute detail that I would trust it to grasp atp

[Chris78]

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Euro ai takes multiple shots at us. At least one will hit, imho

I was thinking the same looping the gfs through 384hr. Fast flow but multiple chances it appears. 

[Heisy]

Euro ai takes multiple shots at us. At least one will hit, imho

I hope, I’m a little worried about ridge bridge of death right before mid month. Can see it on the AiGFS and some other models. We’ve been able to avoid it so far so hopefully that continues. Too far out to know yet of course. I agree we’ll have multiple chances rest of year regardless though.

It’s on the Euro OP too ugh

[WxUSAF]

Bummer. Long range SE ridge predictions have been so locked in for months 

[Paleocene]

Energetic clipper system one week out on the Euro that would please the "where have all the clippers gone" crowd.  Get that baby to dive south more and we're in bizznass. And it's a clipper so you can apply ludicrous ratios, this is just 10:1

 

[Terpeast]

19 minutes ago, Heisy said:

I hope, I’m a little worried about ridge bridge of death right before mid month. Can see it on the AiGFS and some other models. We’ve been able to avoid it so far so hopefully that continues. Too far out to know yet of course. I agree we’ll have multiple chances rest of year regardless though.

It’s on the Euro OP too ugh

For now that’s not supported by the aifs ensembles, and euro has a well known bias of dumping too much energy west. Least likely scenario

[snowmagnet]

41 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Don’t forget ice jams and ice jam flooding. 

That happened to my friend in NC. She still has water dripping and sometimes pouring because of an ice dam. They can’t find the source of it.  

 

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Both cmc and euro want to bring a clipper next friday, showing precip here on the southern fringes 

No midweek snow like the GFS?

[mitchnick]

Enjoy

https://avalonpier.com/piercam/

[Paleocene]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Enjoy

https://avalonpier.com/piercam/

this one is good too - lots of other cams on this site. https://www.surfchex.com/cams/avon/

[Terpeast]

7 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

No midweek snow like the GFS?

Still a chance. Euro AIFS ticked north a bit. Probably noise, but we’re not out of that one yet

[87storms]

53 minutes ago, Kay said:

Hey everyone's entitled to have their critiques of a storm. I prefer 100% pure cold powder of course. We all do. But I just can't perceive this storm as majority sleet. (I also happen to believe we were super lucky to get a hit, when we did/at all). We're all different. Imma enjoy the view of qpf outside my window 

We had temps in the teens throughout the entire event. In the majority of storms, that’s all snow. In most winters, our issues are not precip, it’s temps. I grew up in the 80s (snow on the ground for weeks at a time) and have been thru all the big blizzards since (including traveling from 2007 to 2009 - was back in time for Dec 09), so I’m picky when it comes to wanting snow. That said, I don’t like when my basketball courts are covered lol, so if that’s gonna happen I want it to be for a good reason. I’m actually not as negative as I appear…but this is a competitive sport, so it gets to be a little ridiculous when I see places to the south getting the flush hits that we aren’t. But the tide will likely turn…just a matter of when.

[stormy]

8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Enjoy

https://avalonpier.com/piercam/

Thanks!     I have fished off of this pier many times.

[Kevin Reilly]

10 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

this one is good too - lots of other cams on this site. https://www.surfchex.com/cams/avon/

https://pierhouseevents.com/kittyhawkpiercam/

[das]

3 hours ago, Terpeast said:

It would be, and probably the worst case scenario in terms of impacts. With 2” liquid already frozen on the ground, a rainer would induce melting and flooding then a massize refreeze when cold rushes back in. 

It would have to be a prodigious rainer with high DP's.  0.50" rain at 37ºF will hardly make a dent in the glacier above and below the ground.

[Ji]

I hope, I’m a little worried about ridge bridge of death right before mid month. Can see it on the AiGFS and some other models. We’ve been able to avoid it so far so hopefully that continues. Too far out to know yet of course. I agree we’ll have multiple chances rest of year regardless though.

It’s on the Euro OP too ugh

Don’t be a weenie dude. Euro 15 days out lol?

[Bob Chill]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

Don’t be a weenie dude. Euro 15 days out lol?
 

Yea lol. If wouldn't surprise me at all if the ridge connection happens for like... 3 days... before a trough digs right back in. I see nothing about this pattern that says it's going to morph into extended warmth/shutout.