Major snowstorm 1/15-16

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

18z gfs may deliver 

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Congrats sema.

[Baroclinic Zone]

18z GFS on the board. That lead wave clears out and our trailer has more space to dig and tilt negatively. Allows easterly flow to kick in. Nice solid event verbatim.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

18z GFS on the board. That lead wave clears out and our trailer has more space to dig and tilt negatively. Allows easterly flow to kick in. Nice solid event verbatim.

So does this thread cover both scenarios?   

perhaps it should if it doesn't because there's a clear binary dependency going on with these 

[Spanks45]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Congrats sema.

Trending or a head fake? It feels like the next 2-3 weeks is going to be either all or nothing. Hope we go on one of those hot streaks for once....

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Spanks45 said:

Trending or a head fake? It feels like the next 2-3 weeks is going to be either all or nothing. Hope we go on one of those hot streaks for once....

It’s real. She coming, EOR favored, but everyone gets in on it. 

[dryslot]

Probably wouldn't label it a trend seeing its been hit or miss from run to run.

[ORH_wxman]

Prob a warning event for SE areas that run. Not totally surprising as the 12z GEFS were kind of bullish. 

[Spanks45]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s real. She coming, EOR favored, but everyone gets in on it. 

If we get even more separation like the 18z showed, it may allow this thing to explode even more closer to New Jersey giving all of us a nice blow....

[Baroclinic Zone]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

So does this thread cover both scenarios?   

perhaps it should if it doesn't because there's a clear binary dependency going on with these 

My focus has been on the ULL and energy south of that that curls up into it.

[Damage In Tolland]

We snow . That’s a lock 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

The more amplified storm here, completes negates anything two days later. Seems like, as usual, it’s one or the other, or nothing. Not both 

[CoastalWx]

Wrap it up a tad sooner and it would’ve a nice CCB over SNE. Convection offshore playing games. 

[Typhoon Tip]

18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Prob a warning event for SE areas that run. Not totally surprising as the 12z GEFS were kind of bullish. 

My gut tells me we're getting clipped by a moderate impact - 

It'll be by a system that "could have" been truly magnificent, but the interference is probably real and will mechanically limit the this lead's ability.  It's well on it's way through hour 90 or so... then, it opens up like that - it opens because there's a non-linear offset.     Not you, but to the general user: that is not something you can "see" on a chart.  It's exposed via behavior - case in point, the unusual opening back up when the totality of the +PNA is still maxing.   There's almost no other explanation for why that does that. 

Here's the thing.. that 2nd wave is entirely assimilated - unless there's been some sort of breakthrough in data gathering that I am less privy to, the source origin of the 2nd wave's guts are out over the Date Line.    If that comes in weaker and/or the timing allows for a bigger gap, the lead will almost certainly grow more intense in lockstep with that correction.  If anyone bothers, go back to the big hit by the GFS yesterday and compare the gap between the previous runs, you can see the big hit run was wider... 

anyway... I think when push comes to shove, the models are not that good?  not enough to project 90% of reality when in this particularly unique situation with sudden onset +d(PNA) and handling too balls in the nut sack. The lead wave space is sampling now, and there's some GEFs and GFS and implications, so it triggering the physics enough in the model

[Snowcrazed71]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The more amplified storm here, completes negates anything two days later. Seems like, as usual, it’s one or the other, or nothing. Not both 

You're right, we might get something we might get nothing ... we might get everything. You covered it all. I wish everyone listened to you.

[Typhoon Tip]

39 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

My focus has been on the ULL and energy south of that that curls up into it.

That lead aspect you annotated there is part of the problem when getting into this ordeal at sub-pattern scale discussion ... it's triggering and then whisking away the dynamics fuel for the lead's engine.   

[Baroclinic Zone]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That lead aspect you annotated there is part of the problem when getting into this ordeal at some pattern discussion scales... it's triggering and then whisking away the dynamics fuel for the leads engine.   

Yeah,  I’ve been keeping an eye on that lead wave, seeing if it progresses any faster. I’m also watching to see how our trailer threat amplifies.  If that digs deeper sooner, we can create just enough wave spacing for flow to curl back around. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Some day you will live in  place where it snows everyday and you won't have time to whine about snow that hasn't happened yet.

Fair. Let me know how much you get Friday. Good luck. 

[CoastalWx]

18z GEFS juiced up again.

[CoastalWx]

Wow really good lol. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

With so much UL energy, I am wondering if we will see some weird semi-convective results, or unexpected mini-convergence zones.  

Something like....a general dusting with lollies to 8".  The far east looks a bit more like a normal storm result.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Yeah boyz.. all systems a go. Some called it 

[MJO812]

Huge uptick on the gefs

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Wow really good lol. 

6” mean for your house wow!

[George001]

17 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The more amplified storm here, completes negates anything two days later. Seems like, as usual, it’s one or the other, or nothing. Not both 

Id rather take my chances with the second one. Wave spacing issues with wave 1 are a real concern. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Ray is teetering on the edge. 

I can feel it coming in the air tonight. 

I won't melt from this lead wave...I've largely ignored it. If the follow up rains on me, then it's fair game.

[Spanks45]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Wow really good lol. 

Wow, yeah that was quite the increase in precip region wide....maybe we are trending

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, George001 said:

Id rather take my chances with the second one. Wave spacing issues with wave 1 are a real concern. 

I would take whatever one is closer, as always for me, personally. I don’t like tossing a threat for the possibility of one later.

[Baroclinic Zone]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

18z GEFS juiced up again.

[40/70 Benchmark]

44 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

Inverted trough.....wow, awesome.