Major Hurricane Melissa - 892mb - 185mph at landfall

[GaWx]

 All 12Z ops (except CMC’s near Leewards) have shifted actual (or imminent in case of UK) TCG from the prior favored E of Car to the C Car, which matches favored climo. TCG there would be ~10/20-10/23.
Check out the 12Z EPS, which has a whopping 18 H (36%) with 11 in the dangerous W Car and 7 recurving in SW ATL:

 

Climo:

10/11-20 TCG:

10/21-31 TCG:

[NorthHillsWx]

Wouldn’t it be something if we make it through peak season and October and get our only US hurricane landfall in November

[GaWx]

24 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Wouldn’t it be something if we make it through peak season and October and get our only US hurricane landfall in November

Latest on record first Conus H impact of season is 10/20 (1853). Next is 10/18 of 1968.

[WxWatcher007]

Probably comes about too late for my peak season forecast 

[cptcatz]

20 years ago today Hurricane Wilma formed and became the most intense hurricane ever in the atlantic basin. Just saying...

[NorthHillsWx]

Someone needs to take the GFS out back and put it down like old yeller

[GaWx]

0Z
Icon: big change from prior runs with virtually no sfc low and the main part of its H5 vorticity recurves sharply into Haiti

It almost looks like a split with something else weak going into SW Caribbean headed for Nicaragua/Costa Rica.

UKMET still has yet to have a run with a TCG in the Caribbean from this.

CMC: has yet to have a TCG in the Caribbean as it once again has TCG E of the Car that heads through the Lesser Antilles; ends in W Caribbean as a weakening low

GFS: TCG S of Dom. Republic; moves slowly N to E tip of Dom. Republic and then accelerates NNE OTS

Euro: it again pretty similarly takes its time as prior runs with a TCG not til ~10/23-4 in SW Caribbean with a N move to W. Jamaica and C. Cuba followed by NNE recurve to C. Bahamas. Cat 2 H C Cuba to C Bahamas.

At 2AM and 8AM, it still didn’t make the TWO.

[konksw]

15 hours ago, cptcatz said:

20 years ago today Hurricane Wilma formed and became the most intense hurricane ever in the atlantic basin. Just saying...

During one of the most active and destructive seasons on record lol 

[GaWx]

12Z:
Icon joining the consensus turning it sharply right as it goes into DR after forming in E Caribbean; also very weak entire run

CMC once again is the only model with a TCG E of the Lesser Antilles; TS goes through Windwards; it like the Icon joins the consensus turning it sharply right as it, too, goes N over DR. Then the weakened main part moves NE toward Bermuda

GFS forms in E Caribbean and then moves N over PR followed by turn to NE/OTS

UKMET text again shows no TCG through day 7 but again a sfc low is there (1007 mb) that’s further S than 0Z with it 300 miles S of Jamaica moving slowly W at 168; so this not turning right by 168 is exception so far of 12Z operationals

JMA only out to 72 so far (inconclusive)

Euro is next

 

[GaWx]

 This just made the TWO for first time (0/20):

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Caribbean Sea:
A tropical wave located over the tropical central Atlantic is
expected to move westward at 15 to 20 mph during the next several
days. Some slow development of this system is possible when
it reaches the central portion of the Caribbean Sea by the middle
part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[cptcatz]

4 hours ago, konksw said:

During one of the most active and destructive seasons on record lol 

True but we also had two category 5's this year, two category 5's last year, and the boiling caribbean hasn't been remotely touched this year. So it's entirely safe to say that if atmospheric conditions allow, something could easily blow up in caribbean in late October. 

[GaWx]

 Fwiw due to it being way out in fantasyland, the 12Z Euro has Mitch-like/Eta-like/Iota-like flooding in N Honduras as it stalls just to the N of Honduras for a few days and intensifies followed by E and then ENE/NE movement to W of Jamaica headed toward C Cuba at the end as a trough picks it up.

[hawkeye_wx]

The GFS has a piece of energy in the sw Caribbean that competes with the energy coming in from the east.  That also causes it to stop much earlier and end up much farther northeast.  The Euro, on the other hand, has the main wave remaining the dominant energy, and also has stronger ridging to the north, which keeps the system moving westward.

[Amped]

1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The GFS has a piece of energy in the sw Caribbean that competes with the energy coming in from the east.  That also causes it to stop much earlier and end up much farther northeast.  The Euro, on the other hand, has the main wave remaining the dominant energy, and also has stronger ridging to the north, which keeps the system moving westward.

Strangely the GFS has a second storm forming in the central Caribbean, so the GFS and Euro end up with a similar look at 348 hrs.

Edit: The first storm on the GFS bombs out over PR in like 40kts of shear. Maybe it has a valid reason for doing this, but its a tough solution to believe at this point.

[GaWx]

 Ensembles as well as this time of year climo/history suggest that E NC has almost as much of a chance at getting hit from this directly as S or C FL, including a scenario where both get hit. I’m not saying either is favored to get hit though. Right now neither is at high risk but a nontrivial risk is there.

 

[olafminesaw]

Focus is naturally on whether this will be a US threat, but I am very concerned about possible impacts of a slow moving hurricane passing directly over the Caribbean islands. Particularly Haiti which is under a significant humanitarian disaster from ongoing gang violence and political turmoil

[GaWx]

4 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Focus is naturally on whether this will be a US threat, but I am very concerned about possible impacts of a slow moving hurricane passing directly over the Caribbean islands. Particularly Haiti which is under a significant humanitarian disaster from ongoing gang violence and political turmoil

 In a big change from prior runs, the 12Z CMC hits Nicaragua on 10/24-5 with a strong TS!

[GaWx]

 12Z UKMET: still no actual TCG shown in textual output but 1007 mb low is E of Nicaragua headed slowly in the direction of Nicaragua. Don’t know yet if it will landfall there though. Run not finished.

Edit: looks like it on 10/24.

[Floydbuster]

The 00Z GFS would be a massive disaster for Haiti. 

[cptcatz]

5 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

The 00Z GFS would be a massive disaster for Haiti. 

06z gfs may be even worse. That shows like 10 straight days of TS/ hurricane impacts?

[WxWatcher007]

This one is really interesting. It looks to have a more favorable environment in the Caribbean, and there seems to be two camps on the ensembles with one camp turning it northeast pretty soon and the second getting this further west. Too soon to say which one is right. 

This is a threat in the Caribbean, less clear it can impact the continental US, though I’d watch the troughing in the east at the end of October. 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

East of the Windward Islands and the Caribbean Sea (AL98):
A tropical wave located a couple of hundred miles east of the 
Windward Islands is producing a large and persistent area of showers 
and thunderstorms.  Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that 
the system still lacks a closed circulation, but is producing winds 
of 30 to 35 mph north and east of the wave axis.  Environmental 
conditions are expected to limit development during the next couple 
of days as the system moves quickly westward at 20 to 25 mph, 
bringing heavy rainfall and gusty winds to the Windward Islands 
beginning later today and continuing through Monday morning.  By the 
middle to latter part of the week, environmental conditions are 
forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical 
depression could form while the system slows down over the central 
Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema
  

[GaWx]

 The 0Z UKMET once again has just a rather weak low (not even a TC on the textual output; it has yet to show TCG in the Caribbean on this output though it awhile back had several runs with TCG east of the Lesser Antilles) and again into Nicaragua. The last 5 runs have shown a weak low either hitting Nicaragua (0Z 10/19, 12Z 10/18), barely E of Nic. but heading into it (0Z 10/18, 12Z 10/17), or still 200 miles E of Nic. but likely headed into it (0Z 10/17).

  Looking at the H5 vorticity, it appears that as the AOI on the TWO comes into the E Car that a portion of it turns sharply right like the GFS but unlike that model it never develops. Then what looks like a split from this, possibly incorporating additional vorticity coming off northern S America, causes the weak low to move into the SW Caribbean, which then goes into Nicaragua.

 So, the UKMET remains a SW outlier. I should add that yesterday’s 12Z JMA is similar and it has been similar all of the way back to the 12Z 10/15 run. So, the JMA has had 4 12Z runs in a row with just a weak low into Nicaragua or just offshore headed there. 

Thus the UKMET and JMA have a good chance to both either fail badly or end up doing the best of the major operationals with this.

———

0Z 10/19 UKMET 156

 

12Z 10/18 JMA 168

[jconsor]

AIFS seems off showing too much of a hole in the W Atl ridging N/NW of 98L. The other ML models don't support its scenario of 98L curving sharply NE toward Hispaniola.

https://x.com/yconsor/status/1979887548240650357

[GaWx]

On 10/19/2025 at 8:39 AM, GaWx said:

 The 0Z UKMET once again has just a rather weak low (not even a TC on the textual output; it has yet to show TCG in the Caribbean on this output though it awhile back had several runs with TCG east of the Lesser Antilles) and again into Nicaragua. The last 5 runs have shown a weak low either hitting Nicaragua (0Z 10/19, 12Z 10/18), barely E of Nic. but heading into it (0Z 10/18, 12Z 10/17), or still 200 miles E of Nic. but likely headed into it (0Z 10/17).

  Looking at the H5 vorticity, it appears that as the AOI on the TWO comes into the E Car that a portion of it turns sharply right like the GFS but unlike that model it never develops. Then what looks like a split from this, possibly incorporating additional vorticity coming off northern S America, causes the weak low to move into the SW Caribbean, which then goes into Nicaragua.

 So, the UKMET remains a SW outlier. I should add that yesterday’s 12Z JMA is similar and it has been similar all of the way back to the 12Z 10/15 run. So, the JMA has had 4 12Z runs in a row with just a weak low into Nicaragua or just offshore headed there. 

Thus the UKMET and JMA have a good chance to both either fail badly or end up doing the best of the major operationals with this.

———

0Z 10/19 UKMET 156

 

12Z 10/18 JMA 168

Followup:
-12Z UKMET is still another headed into Nicaragua with a weak low

-12Z JMA: after four 12z runs in a row of weak low into Nicaragua, today’s is a bit stronger (1004-5 mb) and slightly further N with a Mitch-like track that skims N coast of Honduras

[hawkeye_wx]

So this system does appear to be organizing earlier than some models were predicting.  They now mostly develop it before it reaches the central Caribbean.  However, there are still two camps.  The GFS and Euro AIFS are still lifting it northward over Hispaniola, while the Euro and ICON begin to turn it north, but then a rebuilding ridge to the north causes the system to stall and turn back to the west.

[jconsor]

With 98L's increased organization in the past 12 hours, the hurricane models finally seem to be getting a better handle on its track and intensification.

https://x.com/yconsor/status/1980253973345923256

[jconsor]

Notable left trend on FNV3 (Google DeepMind ensemble) from 12z run yesterday to today's 6z run - both in terms of the the members that show a sharp NE curve into Hispaniola being further west (Haiti vs. DR) and a lot more members turning west into the NW Caribbean

[GaWx]

 There remains the 3rd main model option, that of many UKMET runs in a row (including today’s 0Z) that never get it much more organized than it is now due to a splitting off of the main H5 vorticity, which turns sharply north in the E Car leaving behind just a weak surface low. That weak low then continues westward in the S Caribbean with the run then ending (168) with just a 1007 low that’s likely about to dissipate near the Nicaragua coast underneath a pretty solid ridge.

 The JMA had been similar though the latest run (yesterday’s 12Z) developed it into a 1004-5 TD to possibly low end TS that skims the N coast of Honduras to S Belize at 192 (end).

 Interestingly, the 0Z CMC was kind of similar to the 12Z JMA though it survives Honduras and then turns NE as a TS over WC Cuba and then the NW Bahamas.

 We’ll see whether or not this is one of those cases of the UKMET being genesis shy/too weak due to the splitting of energy. It (along with the JMA for the most part) has a good chance to either bust badly or score a coup.

[hawkeye_wx]

The GFS and ICON show the large differences that occur on Wednesday.  At that point, when this system is south of Hispaniola, the GFS suddenly blows it up into a rapidly-strengthening hurricane and drives it north across the island.  The ICON, on the other hand, does not develop it much until Sunday.  It still feels a northward tug, but it remains too weak and shallow to get pulled further north, so it waits for the ridge to build in and turn it westward, at which point it blows up.

Regarding the current state of the system, I'm not seeing any close surface circulation this morning.  The center of surface spin is out ahead of most of the convection.

[WxWatcher007]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Caribbean Sea (AL98):
Recent satellite wind data indicate the tropical wave located over 
the eastern Caribbean Sea still lacks a closed circulation, but 
continues to produce a concentrated area of showers and 
thunderstorms near and to the east of the wave axis. Compared to 
yesterday, surface observations suggest the circulation is gradually 
becoming better defined, and environmental conditions are forecast 
to become a little more conducive for development as the system 
slows its forward motion. A tropical depression or storm is now 
likely to form over the next day or two as it moves into the central 
Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty 
winds are possible over portions of the ABC Islands during the next 
couple of days. Interests in Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, and 
Cuba should monitor its progress as there is a risk of heavy rain 
and flooding, strong winds, and rough surf later this week. For 
addition information on this system, including Gale Warnings, please 
see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Papin