Winter Storm Threat Feb 22-24th

[jconsor]

This a good summary of where we stand IMHO, though it was written before the 12z cycle.

https://x.com/ContentWxGuy/status/2024528387927097369

Recon data may help the models gain clarity, though the recon mission prior to Fri 0z run is significantly further west into the central Pacific than the recon mission whose data was ingested into today's 0z cycle.

[MJO812]

Nam is so ridiculously close to a phase like the gfs. Come on!

Way better than 12z

[Mail Man]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Nam is so ridiculously close to a phase like the gfs. Come on!

Way better than 12z

Yeah I noticed that too.

[Mail Man]

I hope we can get the 18z models to go back in the right direction.

[Mail Man]

Icon looking better than 12z so far. Let's see what happens.

[[email protected]]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Its February not march

Late February, thought!

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, [email protected] said:

Late February, thought!

Getting late early....down to about 3 weeks before climo really works against us

[Mail Man]

Ok I lied  Icon looks bad

[MarcmmKU]

3 hours ago, Wxbear25 said:

Yeah… if the AIFS and UKMET are right, that wave-spacing is just gonna kill any possibility the feature can turn the corner fast enough. really need that lead wave to slow down, the one from Canada to speed up or some combination thereof. Right now, they’re perfectly spaced so as to kill any chance of doing something for places like NYC, at least as depicted on those models

Whatever outcome gives least snow for central park is the most likely to verify

[Mail Man]

Not going to lie I hope the GFS starts caving in a few minutes it basically has 0 support and keeps stringing us along.

[MarcmmKU]

3 hours ago, wthrmn654 said:

Can't get a freaking noreaster anymore only 1 in the past 2 years possibly 2...

0 nor'easters that hit here since jan 22. Even that one was more of a graze for the city proper, decent hit for LI though.

[Wxbear25]

18z RGEM improved aloft, for what little that happens to be worth

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Mail Man said:

Not going to lie I hope the GFS starts caving in a few minutes it basically has 0 support and keeps stringing us along.

Rgem and icon just shifted west. Not like the gfs but a good shift. 

[Jersey_Snowhole]

Expect 18z gfs to pull back and 0z to do the same for a full cave tomorrow. 

[mob1]

3 minutes ago, Mail Man said:

Not going to lie I hope the GFS starts caving in a few minutes it basically has 0 support and keeps stringing us along.

At this point it's almost comical how different it is considering we're a few days out from the potential event.

 

I'd put good money on it backing off at 18Z, maybe not a full cave right away but it's fairly likely that it'll at least take a step back.

[MJO812]

Closer

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

Expect 18z gfs to pull back and 0z to do the same for a full cave tomorrow. 

It may show one more crazy solution especially since the 18z run often is a weenie run

[Wxbear25]

Just now, mob1 said:

At this point it's almost comical how different it is considering we're a few days out from the potential event.

 

I'd put good money on it backing off at 18Z, maybe not a full cave right away but it's fairly likely that it'll at least take a step back.

It’s hard to put trust into the GFS at this particular moment, especially considering what the current Admin has done to sciences in general. I do have to wonder as to its upkeep and data ingestion

I trust the actual scientists, just not the lackeys and yes-men in charge of them

[TJW014]

4 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

Expect 18z gfs to pull back and 0z to do the same for a full cave tomorrow. 

GFS = Generates Fantasy Shit

[weatherpruf]

39 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

If you look carefully at the two maps, you can see a friendly dog (left) and a charging bull (right). Yes doctor I first had these thoughts at an earlier age (by ten seconds).

pages and pages for a storm that isn't going to happen....good lord it's been a boring month. glad december and january were interesting. suprised things turned out to be such a dud. well, not really...

[WeatherGeek2025]

Just now, weatherpruf said:

pages and pages for a storm that isn't going to happen....good lord it's been a boring month. glad december and january were interesting. suprised things turned out to be such a dud. well, not really...

it hasn't happened because it may happen still you're not 100% it won't happen are you?

[Mail Man]

I'm expecting a cave from the GFS as much as I want it to be right.

[MJO812]

It will most likely cave but every model is so close.  Frustrating. 

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

pages and pages for a storm that isn't going to happen....good lord it's been a boring month. glad december and january were interesting. suprised things turned out to be such a dud. well, not really...

too much of a good thing-cold and blocking-PV too far south-bone dry since 1/25 with a .25 liquid equiv since then

[RU848789]

PTTD (Post-Traumatic Tracking Disorder) Prediction: GFS caves most publicly at 12Z tomorrow, then when nobody is watching at 6Z Saturday all the models jump to the GFS blizzard solution, then everyone celebrates - for about 12 hours - when the NAM sends us all an FU goodbye, by showing that that blizzard is going to become a snow to sleet to rainfest and all the models slowly follow. 2" of snow, then 2" of sleet then 1" of rain to wash it all away. Curtain comes up, NAM bows and waves goodbye.

 

[MarcmmKU]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

This is dejavu from last year when the models show a huge snowstorm just a few days out only to take it away. Even the euro showed a big snowstorm and lost it.

It was also around this time.

Yup they lost it at around day 5-6 or so. Days 5-8 are very dangerous because they're close enough to take more seriously than 10 days out but far enough that the accuracy at day 7 is basically nil

[weatherpruf]

12 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

it hasn't happened because it may happen still you're not 100% it won't happen are you?

well i'm not 100% sure a sinkhole won't open up in my backyard and swallow the house either....but i'm not too worried about it.

[weatherpruf]

9 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

PTTD (Post-Traumatic Tracking Disorder) Prediction: GFS caves most publicly at 12Z tomorrow, then when nobody is watching at 6Z Saturday all the models jump to the GFS blizzard solution, then everyone celebrates - for about 12 hours - when the NAM sends us all an FU goodbye, by showing that that blizzard is going to become a snow to sleet to rainfest and all the models slowly follow. 2" of snow, then 2" of sleet then 1" of rain to wash it all away. Curtain comes up, NAM bows and waves goodbye.

 

that would be less boring than what we have and precip would still be welcome. 

[North and West]

Late February, thought!

I thought that too by looking at the calendar


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[Mail Man]

No major changes so far.