The Allsnow Blizzard of 2026

[allgame830]

4 minutes ago, Prue11 said:

Hrrr took a step back 

Post with a map, so annoying

[Blizzardo]

1 minute ago, Prue11 said:

Places will bust low and places will bust high. Get under the right band and you’ll do good

Deformation zones will see 36+ with outside it half the amount.

[Brasiluvsnow]

1 minute ago, BoulderWX said:

Anyone have a good national or regional radar 

https://radar.weather.gov/region/northeast/standard

[Prue11]

5 minutes ago, Blizzardo said:

Deformation zones will see 36+ with outside it half the amount.

36 is a stretch. I don’t believe these big totals are as widespread as forecasted 

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

Post with a map, so annoying

a bit east which affects western sections

[kat5hurricane]

Some of the models have cut back a bit but it's noise at this point, this is still a really big storm with 12-20 areawide.

[BoulderWX]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

a bit east which affects western sections

I’m one of those western sections in this storm

and I’d take that and run! 

[Tatamy]

47 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

It’s an interesting forecast where I am near the Delaware River with only the short term Mesos calling for big snows here (12-18”) whereas the globals and some mesos are calling for 8-12”.  The IVT will be the key out here for me and other NW areas.  The cutoff will be right through my general area I believe.

12z HRRR concurs with the Delaware River cutoff for the big snows.

[SnoSki14]

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

a bit east which affects western sections

Again ratios for a good 6-8hrs will likely be higher than 10:1

I'm playing it conservative but trust the NWS too. 

This is one instance where an overperformance wouldn't surprise me. How often do we see a 970mb low inside the BM. 

[Blizzardo]

5 minutes ago, Prue11 said:

36 is a stretch. I don’t believe these big totals are as widespread as forecasted 

Deformation zones are not widespread. Very easy to get 36 in a powerhouse like this.

[SACRUS]

NYC (Central Park) Snowstorms (Top 40 like the old radio countdowns) we may have a new smash hit coming in the top 15 

 Largest → Smallest

Jan 22–24, 2016 – 27.5"

Feb 11–12, 2006 – 26.9"

Dec 26–27, 1947 – 26.4"

Feb 25–27, 2010 – 20.9"

Jan 7–8, 1996 – 20.2"

Dec 26–27, 2010 – 20.0"

Feb 16–17, 2003 – 19.8"

Jan 26–27, 2011 – 19.0"

Mar 7–8, 1941 – 18.1"

Feb 5–7, 1978 – 17.7"

Feb 11–12, 1983 – 17.6"

Feb 3–4, 1961 – 17.4"

Jan 31–Feb 3, 2021 – 17.4"

Dec 19–20, 1948 – 16.0"

Feb 9–10, 1969 – 15.3"

Dec 11–12, 1960 – 15.2"

Mar 3–4, 1960 – 14.5"

Dec 5–7, 2003 – 14.0"

Jan 22–23, 2005 – 13.8"

Dec 21–22, 1959 – 13.7"

Jan 19–20, 1978 – 13.6"

Jan 23–24, 1935 – 13.0"

Feb 11, 1994 – 12.8"

Feb 19, 1979 – 12.7"

Jan 12–13, 1964 – 12.5"

Feb 7, 1967 – 12.5"

Feb 13–14, 2014 – 12.5"

Dec 30, 2000 – 12.0"

Mar 20–21, 1958 – 11.8"

Mar 18–19, 1956 – 11.6"

Jan 21–22, 2014 – 11.5"

Feb 8–9, 2013 – 11.4"

Jan 25–26, 2026 – 11.4"

Dec 26, 1933 – 11.2"

Dec 19–20, 2009 – 10.9"

Feb 4, 1995 – 10.8"

Feb 20–21, 1947 – 10.7"

Feb 16–17, 1996 – 10.7"

Mar 13–14, 1993 – 10.6"

Feb 11, 1933 – 10.0"

Feb 10, 2010 – 10.0"

[North and West]

Here are my thoughts….i’m going with the RGEM. RGEM all the way. It’s been the most consistent for days and hasn’t budged. Great model. Makes the most sense. I think the NAM is about to go down in an epic flaming dumpster fire. It’s going to have its hugest bust ever. GFS has been downgrading amounts since Friday evening. Ride the RGEM
 
6z RGEM: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2026022206&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

Someone could drop a million dollars in your lap and you would be concerned about currency devaluation.


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[SACRUS]

2 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

Some of the models have cut back a bit but it's really noise at this point, this is still a really big storm with 12-20 areawide.

Deformation banding will gift some with huge totals and rob others - always the case its not such a uniform distribution as the globals and other models show.  QPF in general will be 1-1.4 aread wide ( 8-14 or so) and under those heaviest bands/banding  up to and exceeding 2-2.5 LE and that's where the >18-24 inches totals in those areas the target has been depicted in the Ocean - Monmouth cty and LI/SNE areas.

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

Some of the models have cut back a bit but it's noise at this point, this is still a really big storm with 12-20 areawide.

coming more into reality-some of the GFS/NAM totals are likely over done

[Mail Man]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

coming more into reality-some of the GFS/NAM totals are likely over done

I agree even though I wish it was true

[SACRUS]

 

I would be riding the radar / obs and as far as guidance:

From past storms and other general feedback 

Weighting (rule of thumb inside 6 hours):
HREF + HRRR (top tier) → RAP (thermals/p-type) → NAM 3km (structure/gradients)

[Jt17]

coming more into reality-some of the GFS/NAM totals are likely over done

At 9z tmr morning RAP has 13 inches vs 9 for HRRR. Easy to get caught up in every model run, but a 970 low just spinning in the same perfect spot for while is going to go nuts.


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[WeatherGeek2025]

19 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

Post with a map, so annoying

 

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

coming more into reality-some of the GFS/NAM totals are likely over done

We need to keep in mind this isn't a gulf Miller A that is able to pull in enormous amounts of moisture like a 16 or 96. 

The fact we're even talking about 2 feet totals nearby is pretty crazy. 

[psv88]

Snowing back home in Commack. 34. 
 

70 here in Miami 

[Dark Star]

24 minutes ago, Blizzardo said:

Deformation zones will see 36+ with outside it half the amount.

What will cause the deformation zones in this setup?

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

We need to keep in mind this isn't a gulf Miller A that is able to pull in enormous amounts of moisture like a 16 or 96. 

The fact we're even talking about 2 feet totals nearby is pretty crazy. 

it's the stall/capture that allows that to happen....

[BoulderWX]

10 minutes ago, North and West said:

Someone could drop a million dollars in your lap and you would be concerned about currency devaluation.


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One of the best comments in the entire thread. Literally LOLd

[Picard]

Western parts of the area aren't far from of a 4-6 inch snowstorm if she were to wobble a bit further east, so it's really a nowcasting, watch the radar time.
I am confident some areas will get 18+ and really jackpot, and it will be interesting to overlay actuals with the models when all is said and done.

[Big Jims Videos]

Tide predictions up a half foot since yesterday. Manasquan now touching major. 

[Blizzardo]

4 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

What will cause the deformation zones in this setup?

I'm not that knowledgeable enough to know what will cause them in this particular setup except if there is frontogenesis. And I don't think they can be predicted where they setup shop until it happens. Maybe a pro can explain better

[Irish]

8 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Snowing back home in Commack. 34. 
 

70 here in Miami 

That really sucks that you're not up here for this. I'd be pissed!

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

20 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

NYC (Central Park) Snowstorms (Top 40 like the old radio countdowns) we may have a new smash hit coming in the top 15 

 Largest → Smallest

Jan 22–24, 2016 – 27.5"

Feb 11–12, 2006 – 26.9"

Dec 26–27, 1947 – 26.4"

Feb 25–27, 2010 – 20.9"

Jan 7–8, 1996 – 20.2"

Dec 26–27, 2010 – 20.0"

Feb 16–17, 2003 – 19.8"

Jan 26–27, 2011 – 19.0"

Mar 7–8, 1941 – 18.1"

Feb 5–7, 1978 – 17.7"

Feb 11–12, 1983 – 17.6"

Feb 3–4, 1961 – 17.4"

Jan 31–Feb 3, 2021 – 17.4"

Dec 19–20, 1948 – 16.0"

Feb 9–10, 1969 – 15.3"

Dec 11–12, 1960 – 15.2"

Mar 3–4, 1960 – 14.5"

Dec 5–7, 2003 – 14.0"

Jan 22–23, 2005 – 13.8"

Dec 21–22, 1959 – 13.7"

Jan 19–20, 1978 – 13.6"

Jan 23–24, 1935 – 13.0"

Feb 11, 1994 – 12.8"

Feb 19, 1979 – 12.7"

Jan 12–13, 1964 – 12.5"

Feb 7, 1967 – 12.5"

Feb 13–14, 2014 – 12.5"

Dec 30, 2000 – 12.0"

Mar 20–21, 1958 – 11.8"

Mar 18–19, 1956 – 11.6"

Jan 21–22, 2014 – 11.5"

Feb 8–9, 2013 – 11.4"

Jan 25–26, 2026 – 11.4"

Dec 26, 1933 – 11.2"

Dec 19–20, 2009 – 10.9"

Feb 4, 1995 – 10.8"

Feb 20–21, 1947 – 10.7"

Feb 16–17, 1996 – 10.7"

Mar 13–14, 1993 – 10.6"

Feb 11, 1933 – 10.0"

Feb 10, 2010 – 10.0"

There's actually 68, 10 inch or greater snowstorms in NYC since 1870. Did you cut off after a certain date?

[TJW014]

4 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said:

Tide predictions up a half foot since yesterday. Manasquan now touching major. 

We're very lucky it's not a new/full moon

[BoulderWX]

35 - very light snow/rain mix