Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow Sunday 1/25 - Tuesday 1/27

[donsutherland1]

12 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Just a reminder that 850mb is not the warmest layer. The warmest NAM layer (in between 850mb and 700mb) is several degrees C warmer than 850mb.

The sounding at 84 hours. 

 

[NEG NAO]

Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

euro was also consistent with last weekends system going out to sea

true untill later Friday it started trending west - so still time for adjustments

 

[BoulderWX]

6 minutes ago, Joe4alb said:

hoping the UKIE looks a bit better. 500 level seems to indicate northern stream lagging a bit compared to 6z, let's see if that leads to a bit less amplification. 

Shaves a couple inches off its 00z run - aligned with other models 

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said:

It's 3 days out, not 5-6, we have some sense of what is going to happen at this point, just not the fine details.

and the # 1 finer details are the snow-sleet-ice-rain lines

[WeatherGeek2025]

how's uncle what's it showing, driving to the city right now can't check. extrapolate the run if you don't mind ?

[SACRUS]

1/22 12z UKMET

total QPF

 

 

Total snow / sleet (10:1)

 

[mob1]

First part of the storm should feature some good ratios. About -10C on all levels, temps in the DGZ region is ideal (-12 to 18 Celsius is what you want to see) and winds aren't overly strong. 

[SACRUS]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

1/22 12Z : 
NYC area
Total QPF / (Snow/Sleet) using 10:1

NAM (84H) : 0.7  /  (6.7)
RGEM (84H): 1.0 / (9.0)
ICON :  1.4 / (8.5)
GFS: 1.4 / (12.5)
GGEM: 1.2 / (8.2)
UKMET: 0.8 - 1.0 / (8.5)
 

Updated

[NittanyWx]

Risk here is primary handoff to coastal and slotting.  I think coastal areas, especially Jersey and ELI have a period of sleet, but the slotting on Monday with primary handoff is a tricky feature.  Should still be a very solid event, just a mater of top end

[SACRUS]

 

1/22 12z GEFS

 

Total QPF mean - storm

 

 

Total Snow / sleet (10:1) :

 

 

LP Mean lean

 

 

 

 

 

[WeatherGeek2025]

6 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

1/22 12z GEFS

 

Total QPF mean - storm

 

 

Total Snow / sleet (10:1) :

 

 

LP Mean lean

 

 

 

 

 

that looks south of 6z

[SACRUS]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

1/22 12Z : 
NYC area
Total QPF / (Snow/Sleet) using 10:1

NAM (84H) : 0.7  /  (6.7)
RGEM (84H): 1.0 / (9.0)
ICON :  1.4 / (8.5)
GFS: 1.4 / (12.5)
GGEM: 1.2 / (8.2)
UKMET: 0.8 - 1.0 / (8.5)
GEFS: 1.4 / (12.8)
 

Updated

 

[SnoSki14]

Sure would be nice for the GFS to score for once. GEFS also look great 

[Prue11]

Upton kokx area forecast discussion not buying into the mix. They say it is a more unlikely scenario to have maxing than not 

[Joe4alb]

4 minutes ago, Prue11 said:

Upton kokx area forecast discussion not buying into the mix. They say it is a more unlikely scenario to have maxing than not 

As arctic high pressure drops out of Central Canada and into
the Plains into Saturday, surface low pressure organizes across
the Deep South with strong shortwave energy swinging east. The
low is progged to move off the Carolina coast Saturday night or
Sunday, passing nearby Sunday night into Monday. With help from
reconnaissance data in the EPac, global ensemble systems and
their respective AI counterparts continue to hone in on a more
amplified, northern solution of the developing low pressure,
leading to more moisture locally. Working in favor of the snow
is the arctic air mass in place leading into the storm. 925 mb
temps look to fall toward -20C or below on Saturday, with
surface temperatures progged in the teens during the afternoon;
likely one of the coldest days in several years. This will allow
all snow to start very late Saturday night or Sunday morning as
the associated WAA with the system gets into full swing. SLRs
given the arctic profiles should be above 15:1 at least to
begin, before gradually lowering through Sunday as the boundary
slowly warms. Sunday appears to be when most of the snowfall and
accumulation occurs.

Depending on the ultimate track of the system, it remains possible
enough warm air could materialize aloft near the coast to force
mixing or a changeover, especially later Sunday or Sunday night.
Of course, this would cut down on snow totals were it to occur,
but also introduce icing concerns. This doesn`t appear to be
the most likely solution at the moment however, with ensemble
means putting the low somewhere near the 40N/70W benchmark, and
not as far north as recent operational runs of the deterministic
ECMWF and CMC.

In line with WPC, total QPF through Monday sits around an inch
for coastal areas, and closer to 0.75 inches inland. With an all
snow event, or nearly so, this would produce a warning level
snowfall across the local Tri State, with highest totals
possibly eclipsing a foot. NBM v5.0 probabilities of at least 6
inches have consistently sat above 90 percent region-wide, and
around 50 percent for at least a foot. Every single one of the
00Z Euro AIFS members yields a warning level (6 inch+) snowfall
for NYC, an impressive signal at this stage.

[hooralph]

50 minutes ago, VlinderF said:

Greetings! During this period of model-hugging and pointless arguing, I thought I'd introduce myself. I'm a looongtime lurker, going back to the days of Bill Evans's WABC board, when metsfan/snow88/MJO was just a young whippersnapper working at CVS. Lurked on Eastern and the NYC Metro Weather forums for a long time too, but mostly here now.

As one of the rare folks in this forum who actually lives near Central Park, I thought I'd throw my hat in the ring. Hoping for some good snow soon, as it's been...a while around here. Also thought this forum could benefit from someone who can actually vouch for the measurements in CPK, which, honestly...usually sound about right to me. This last Sunday, while the Park reported 0.4 in the morning (on grass that had a little from the day before), in the surrounding neighborhood we got ZERO/NADA/white rain until the evening round, when we picked up about an inch, and only then on grass/cars/etc. It really is different in Manhattan in those borderline-ass storms. But for this weekend, even 6 inches of solid snow and a sleet-fest on top would be the most exciting winter weather around here since about 2021. Here's hoping.

Welcome. I'm on the West side near the river. I suggest we average our measurements for a NYC total as we do tend to be a tad colder over here than the East side. 
 

[Astoriaweather]

8 minutes ago, TriPol said:

I wonder whether this storm will extend New York City’s inability to produce a true one-foot snowfall. Since 2010, only four storms have delivered 12 inches or more, and it has now been nearly a decade since the last one. That appears to be the longest stretch in the city’s recorded history between winter storms producing a foot or more of snow.

NYC had a 17 inch snowfall in 2021

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/BiggestSnowstorms.pdf

[TJW014]

Never underestimate the warm nose. It'll rear its ugly head. 

[Stormlover74]

I like this map right now

[Astoriaweather]

Just now, TJW014 said:

Never underestimate the warm nose. It'll rear its ugly head. 

There was a storm in March 2017. Was supposed to be all snow. 15 to 20 inches was forecast.  In Manhattan, about 6 inches fell quickly during the morning time and then it turned into a massive, pounding sleet storm that persisted well into the evening.  It was a huge bust. But It then froze the next day. And, despite it being March with March Sun, the snow/ice was so packed that it stayed on the ground, even in the city, till late March.

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

I like this map right now

Long Island is getting way more than 4 inches

[Prue11]

15 minutes ago, Joe4alb said:

As arctic high pressure drops out of Central Canada and into
the Plains into Saturday, surface low pressure organizes across
the Deep South with strong shortwave energy swinging east. The
low is progged to move off the Carolina coast Saturday night or
Sunday, passing nearby Sunday night into Monday. With help from
reconnaissance data in the EPac, global ensemble systems and
their respective AI counterparts continue to hone in on a more
amplified, northern solution of the developing low pressure,
leading to more moisture locally. Working in favor of the snow
is the arctic air mass in place leading into the storm. 925 mb
temps look to fall toward -20C or below on Saturday, with
surface temperatures progged in the teens during the afternoon;
likely one of the coldest days in several years. This will allow
all snow to start very late Saturday night or Sunday morning as
the associated WAA with the system gets into full swing. SLRs
given the arctic profiles should be above 15:1 at least to
begin, before gradually lowering through Sunday as the boundary
slowly warms. Sunday appears to be when most of the snowfall and
accumulation occurs.

Depending on the ultimate track of the system, it remains possible
enough warm air could materialize aloft near the coast to force
mixing or a changeover, especially later Sunday or Sunday night.
Of course, this would cut down on snow totals were it to occur,
but also introduce icing concerns. This doesn`t appear to be
the most likely solution at the moment however, with ensemble
means putting the low somewhere near the 40N/70W benchmark, and
not as far north as recent operational runs of the deterministic
ECMWF and CMC.

In line with WPC, total QPF through Monday sits around an inch
for coastal areas, and closer to 0.75 inches inland. With an all
snow event, or nearly so, this would produce a warning level
snowfall across the local Tri State, with highest totals
possibly eclipsing a foot. NBM v5.0 probabilities of at least 6
inches have consistently sat above 90 percent region-wide, and
around 50 percent for at least a foot. Every single one of the
00Z Euro AIFS members yields a warning level (6 inch+) snowfall
for NYC, an impressive signal at this stage.

Like stated doesn’t appear to be the most likely scenario 

[SACRUS]

1/22 12z Euro AI AIFS  total QPF storm

 

 

Total Snow / Sleet (10:1)

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

Long Island is getting way more than 4 inches

snowfall maps at this range are a waste of time and can be dangerous - think about it...........

[Snowlover11]

Watches up

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
1226 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic- Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex- Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx- Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk- Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 1226 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Precipitation could mix with sleet and freezing rain for a time Sunday night especially closer to the coast. Potential for snow accumulation of 6 to 12 inches, with localized accumulations over 12 inches possible.

 * WHERE...All of southeast New York, northeast New Jersey, and southern Connecticut.

* WHEN...From late Saturday night through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Visibilities may drop below one quarter mile in heavy snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons should consider delaying all travel from Sunday into Monday. If travel is absolutely necessary, drive with extreme caution. Make sure your car is winterized and in good working order. Consider taking a winter storm kit along with you, including such items as tire chains, booster cables, flashlight, shovel, blankets and extra clothing. Also take water, a first aid kit, and anything else that would help you survive in case you become stranded.

&&

[Winterweatherlover]

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I like this map right now

Too low for LI imo.

[SACRUS]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

1/22 12Z : 
NYC area
Total QPF / (Snow/Sleet) using 10:1

NAM (84H) : 0.7  /  (6.7)
RGEM (84H): 1.0 / (9.0)
ICON :  1.4 / (8.5)
GFS: 1.4 / (12.5)
GGEM: 1.2 / (8.2)
UKMET: 0.8 - 1.0 / (8.5)
GEFS: 1.4 / (12.8)
Euro AI AIFS: 1.2 / (11.1)
 

 

Updated as we wait for the euro to complete the suite

[Joe4alb]

EURO-AI a bit more north, slightly warmer at 850. Not a big difference

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said:

Watches up

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
1226 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic- Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex- Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx- Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk- Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 1226 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Precipitation could mix with sleet and freezing rain for a time Sunday night especially closer to the coast. Potential for snow accumulation of 6 to 12 inches, with localized accumulations over 12 inches possible.

 * WHERE...All of southeast New York, northeast New Jersey, and southern Connecticut.

* WHEN...From late Saturday night through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Visibilities may drop below one quarter mile in heavy snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons should consider delaying all travel from Sunday into Monday. If travel is absolutely necessary, drive with extreme caution. Make sure your car is winterized and in good working order. Consider taking a winter storm kit along with you, including such items as tire chains, booster cables, flashlight, shovel, blankets and extra clothing. Also take water, a first aid kit, and anything else that would help you survive in case you become stranded.

&&

really left their options open - 6 inches to over a foot- BIG DIFFERENCE

[Snowlover11]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

really left their options open - 6 inches to over a foot- BIG DIFFERENCE

Yeah can definitely adjust come warning time.