Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow Sunday 1/25 - Tuesday 1/27

[Prue11]

18 minutes ago, eduggs said:

"Wet" as in intense rates, which is true considering it falls in about 12 hours. Temps between 700mb and 850mb surge during the day on Sunday and no longer support snow by Sunday evening for much of the forum. It's a high impact event but shorter in duration than some other models.

We had over 2’ in 12 hours February 2013 in Suffolk 

[Snowlover11]

Watches flying all over in VA, PA, NJ, NY.

[Prue11]

Atleast 1/3 of the United States is under a winter storm watch/warning 

[BoulderWX]

Warm nose apparent on the ICON at 06z - ugly depiction and a big step back from OOZ

[EasternLI]

Not very often that you see winter storm headlines cover that much real estate. In NNE, those are actually extreme cold watches. Impressive. 

[dseagull]

By the time all is said amd done, this storm will mostly be remembered for the areas that recieve ice, and the following arctic air.  Sure doesnt look like the blockbuster metropolis snowstorm we were hoping would thread the needle. 

Im enjoying watching the evolution of model outputs, particularly the AI versions.  We have a longgggg way to go with AI models, and without sampling, its evident that solutions will likely not verify at a higher level than traditional models. 

[Neblizzard]

06z GFS is approximately an 18 hour event across the metro and continues to remain on the colder side of the guidance . 10-15 inches region wide. 

[Snowlover11]

1 minute ago, Neblizzard said:

0z GFS is approximately an 18 hour event across the metro and continues to remain on the colder side of the guidance . 10-15 inches region wide. 

You see 6z? Lol. 12-20”+

[Neblizzard]

1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said:

You see 6z? Lol. 12-20”+

I meant 6z, my mistake. 

[qg_omega]

Need to watch out for the warm layer, it’s not going to be at 850mb.  In these situations warm air loves to punch in around 700mb and is often faster than modeled.  Need to watch the NAM Friday and Saturday

[North and West]

I’m not buying it either for my area but I think the mix line could make it up to southern Monmouth 

As long as it doesn’t make it to MMU, amirite??


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[North and West]

I want at some point a nice ice/sleet/snow event. Stays frozen but just a total disaster. At some point pure snow gets boring. An icy messy disaster is more fun in my mind. Snow is snow

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[LawdogGRNJ]

5 minutes ago, North and West said:

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Exactly - having gone through one of the historic ice storms of the 1990's, there's nothing "nice" about them. 

[MJO812]

36 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Need to watch out for the warm layer, it’s not going to be at 850mb.  In these situations warm air loves to punch in around 700mb and is often faster than modeled.  Need to watch the NAM Friday and Saturday

Yep

Euro is too close

[jm1220]

It’s really not overly complicated, if we have a strong 700/850 low go NW of us, we will mix eventually-plain and simple. That means the winds at those levels are from the south and a warm direction. It doesn’t matter that the surface is cold. We could have a lot of snow fall before then but the same mechanism driving all the moisture from the Gulf also brings warm air. If the snow comes in like a wall it helps hold the warm mid level air back and we can pile it up quickly, if it comes in like shredded garbage it will disappoint and we get sleet sooner. We could also dry slot before or as that warm air arrives since dry air will pivot around the mid level lows from the south. We need the mid level confluence to force a further south transfer. If se see that retreating we have a typical SWFE setup. There’s the other possibility of a coastal system bringing snow back in but I think that won’t be determined until we’re closer in.

[Snowguy66]

Do you guys see the pattern?  The 6z and 18Z always take steps back.  Throw them out and only look at the. 12Z and 00Z.

[Jersey_Snowhole]

6z euro snow maps really reflecting that sleet / rain mix. Obviously cut totals down to single digits. 

[Jersey_Snowhole]

1 minute ago, Snowguy66 said:

Do you guys see the pattern?  The 6z and 18Z always take steps back.  Throw them out and only look at the. 12Z and 00Z.

It’s not just 6z and 18z. 12z and 0z are showing the same thing. 

[qg_omega]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It’s really not overly complicated, if we have a strong 700/850 low go NW of us, we will mix eventually-plain and simple. That means the winds at those levels are from the south and a warm direction. It doesn’t matter that the surface is cold. We could have a lot of snow fall before then but the same mechanism driving all the moisture from the Gulf also brings warm air. If the snow comes in like a wall it helps hold the warm mid level air back and we can pile it up quickly, if it comes in like shredded garbage it will disappoint and we get sleet sooner. We could also dry slot before or as that warm air arrives since dry air will pivot around the mid level lows from the south. We need the mid level confluence to force a further south transfer. If se see that retreating we have a typical SWFE setup. There’s the other possibility of a coastal system bringing snow back in but I think that won’t be determined until we’re closer in.

Why is every storm a SWFE now, really missing real coastal storms and CCB snow, hopefully we get one this year

[MJO812]

My temperature went from the teens to the 20s on Sunday now.

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

6z euro snow maps really reflecting that sleet / rain mix. Obviously cut totals down to single digits. 

Which map ?

[weatherpruf]

Yep
Euro is too close

So… what are the pros saying at nws…my holly says a good thump but we probably see even plain rain all the way to the coastal plain with everything in between…. Upton sees sleet doesn’t mention much about rain. What’s probably off the table: a 2 foot blizzard. What could happen; a decent snow that mixes in all the suspect places. What happens in the south and mid Atlantic is not of any interest to me or mine, but I do not wish ice and snow on them because most people there don’t want or like snow and no one in their right mind likes ice. Finally, the weather services say there is a strong guidance for 6 inches plus and maybe 10, they just can’t nail it down and upton is hesitant to put a watch up but considered it. So, after a boring couple winters, are you not entertained?


.

[MJO812]

Just now, weatherpruf said:

So… what are the pros saying at nws…my holly says a good thump but we probably see even plain rain all the way to the coastal plain with everything in between…. Upton sees sleet doesn’t mention much about rain. What’s probably off the table: a 2 foot blizzard. What could happen; a decent snow that mixes in all the suspect places. What happens in the south and mid Atlantic is not of any interest to me or mine, but I do not wish ice and snow on them because most people there don’t want or like snow and no one in their right mind likes ice. Finally, the weather services say there is a strong guidance for 6 inches plus and maybe 10, they just can’t nail it down and upton is hesitant to put a watch up but considered it. So, after a boring couple winters, are you not entertained?


.

Everyone should be happy . This looks like snow to sleet for many on the coast with possibly snow to rain for SNJ southward. 

[weatherpruf]

Do you guys see the pattern?  The 6z and 18Z always take steps back.  Throw them out and only look at the. 12Z and 00Z.

The weather service sees the sleet and even rain potential. It is likely.


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[Blizzardo]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

My temperature went from the teens to the 20s on Sunday now.

Honestly, I see that as a good thing. Remember and you know, the big storms always bring the warm nose and mix, Blizzard of 96 had a big sleet session and I still got 30+. IMO based of of my 35 years of snow storms, prime time temps are 25-28 degrees! The old saying, cold and dry, warm and wet! 

[EasternLI]

Didn't see any mention of the Euro AI from 6z. It's outstanding. 

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, Snowguy66 said:

Do you guys see the pattern?  The 6z and 18Z always take steps back.  Throw them out and only look at the. 12Z and 00Z.

No pattern 

Upton has sleet mixed in now for Monday morning here in Brooklyn.

[bluewave]

Looks like most of us should see at least 6” before any mixing potential Sunday with the stronger Southeast ridge and weaker 50/50 low than originally forecast.

New run

Old run

[jm1220]

9 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Why is every storm a SWFE now, really missing real coastal storms and CCB snow, hopefully we get one this year

We’re still not in a regime that allows for big coastal storms like before 2020. Still very progressive and favoring fast moving/suppressed or SWFE type systems. If this one trends to a SWFE type system although one that’s much larger and more far reaching than usual it would fit the mold. 

[jm1220]

7 minutes ago, Blizzardo said:

Honestly, I see that as a good thing. Remember and you know, the big storms always bring the warm nose and mix, Blizzard of 96 had a big sleet session and I still got 30+. IMO based of of my 35 years of snow storms, prime time temps are 25-28 degrees! The old saying, cold and dry, warm and wet! 

If we get 10” of snow with sleet mixed in at the end that will all freeze up and thicken the snowpack up, count that as a big win. Rather that than 15” all snow that melts faster.