It's coming 1/31-2/1

[Jt17]

Are 6z Euro and EPS better than 0z?


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[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Everyone I know is already talking about it, the media hype is nuts. 

It would be historical to get another big storm this quickly so not sure what will happen.  

If it misses the general public will say it was overhyped/bust

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

If it misses the general public will say it was overhyped/bust

The potential of this storm is very high. That being said overhyped happens too much. 

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Theres 2 camps on the 6z EPS. One is in a good spot for our subforum track near the benchmark. The other is way out to sea. I’m encouraged by the GEFS but I want to see the EPS make a significant shift west with its mean today. 

why today ? I think we will be spinning our wheels today with the ops and ensembles arguing with themselves and with others - one other thing need to get that kicker out of the picture and the trough to go more negative

[Tatamy]

The 06z Euro OP is OTS.

[Nibor]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

why today ? I think we will be spinning our wheels today with the ops and ensembles arguing with themselves and with others

I’m not expecting a final solution. Just would like to see a correction away from the out to sea option. A big factor is the storm as modeled is occluding south of us. That’s something else to look for on future modeling. 

[mikem81]

Can anyone on here intelligently explain why this may or may not come the up the coast or go OTS? What are the main players on the field here 

[WeatherGeek2025]

CFS

[Brian5671]

CFS is a horrid model

[EastonSN+]

Just for fun, wasn't the CRAS the first model to pick up Boxing Day?

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

8 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

CFS

My new favorite model. It's never been wrong to my knowledge. Today of course is the first day I ever heard of it.

[NEG NAO]

5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Just for fun, wasn't the CRAS the first model to pick up Boxing Day?

go back to 2010 here and research it -let us know

[CentralNJSnowman]

26 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

The EPS from last night showed a few inches - what evidence do you have that it will be all or nothing ?

Honestly, I'm not that knowledgeable so mostly relying on the many mets in the various subforums here who have been honking about the potential for something big in this time period

That said, I do understand forecasting/analysis (in general, not specifically for weather) and there's a big difference between ensembles averaging 3" because they have 25% of solutions at 12" and 75% (all or none) at 0" vs. average 3" because 75% of solutions have 4" and 25% at 0" (2-4/3-6 storm).  My impression is that they've been closer to the former for this storm.  Anytime you're looking at an aggregation of solutions, the distribution is going to include a lot of information that gets obscured if you just look at the average.

All that said, I do agree with you that we're not really going to know what's going on here until later in the week.

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

My new favorite model. It's never been wrong to my knowledge. Today of course is the first day I ever heard of it.

i'm still going with my forecast whatever euro ai prints out today i said it yesterday and will keep

my word. CFS is a horrible model just figured I'd share!

[North and West]

2 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

They are real and they are spectacular. 

( o )( o )   

these are headlights in the snow.

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

i'm still going with my forecast whatever euro ai prints out today i said it yesterday and will keep

my word. CFS is a horrible model just figured I'd share!

Give it til Thursday its going to keep bouncing around 

[jm1220]

We do need it to dig a little less and occlude later. On these models that boot it out it occludes very early and then bounces east. It needs to gain some latitude before occluding. I would assume those tucked in models dig it less and occlude it a little later. We also need to watch the shortwave over the upper Midwest-it can act as a kicker. 

[NJwx85]

49 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

I'd be more worried about ice damming than structural issues, unless your house is framed with balsa wood.

Based on the temperature forecast and the amount of snow on my roof, I am worried about ice damming.

Yes this is a major concern. The whole roof collapsing thing is a bit tounge in cheek but it’s not out of the realm of possibilities.

[Franklin0529]

This might be one for the beaches. I could see South Jersey say toms River south getting few inches 

[NJwx85]

I know this is a bit cliche but this is definitely one of those scenarios where you don’t want to be in the bullseye 5-6 days out if you’re rooting for a big storm. 

[cleetussnow]

1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

Do you think it’s going to be pure fluff after 6 days of melting in the sun and then refreezing? I have like 18” on my roof. Another 2 feet on top of that wouldn’t be great. And it’s too high for one of those scrapers.

It doesn’t get heavier when it melts.  The weight will be the same.  The fluff we just got has a relatively low water content.  3 feet of concrete snow is a different story, but you’ll likely still be fine anyway.  If this storm blows 70 it won’t pile up on the roof as much but you will have plenty of other problems besides your roof.

[Principal McVicker]

35 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

If it misses the general public will say it was overhyped/bust

You know, Brian makes a good point. If the storm misses, the public will call it a 'bust.' Which is a real shame, because here on this site, we prefer the more scientific term for being completely wrong despite having billions of dollars in satellite data. We call it 'a statistical anomaly.' It sounds much more professional when you’re explaining to your wife why you spent twelve hours staring at a colorful map of a storm that ended up hitting a completely different ocean.

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, cleetussnow said:

It doesn’t get heavier when it melts.  The weight will be the same.  The fluff we just got has a relatively low water content.  3 feet of concrete snow is a different story, but you’ll likely still be fine anyway.  If this storm blows 70 it won’t pile up on the roof as much but you will have plenty of other problems besides your roof.

Yes I know it doesn’t get heavier, my point was more that it’s not going anywhere and anything that melts will just refreeze instead of running off or evaporating. Under normal conditions we would lose a lot over the course of a week. Not so much this time.

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

This might be one for the beaches. I could see South Jersey say toms River south getting few inches 

Someone could still get a foot plus like in the outer banks or cape cod

[Franklin0529]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Someone could still get a foot plus like in the outer banks or cape cod

Oh yea for sure. I was talking about around here

[cleetussnow]

4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Yes I know it doesn’t get heavier, my point was more that it’s not going anywhere and anything that melts will just refreeze instead of running off or evaporating. 

I just did some google AI.  Average us home’s roof can hold 20lb per square foot load.  At a10 to 1 ratio, thats 38.5 inches of snow.  So actually your point is valid if we get 2 more feet, assuming all of it is 10 -1 ratio.  

[EastonSN+]

25 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

go back to 2010 here and research it -let us know

 No

[Rjay]

6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Someone could still get a foot plus like in the outer banks or cape cod

What's more likely, the outer banks getting crushed or it coming further north?

[WeatherGeek2025]

 

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

What's more likely, the outer banks getting crushed or it coming further north?

Given how far south this storm will be and the airmass i could see the former