It's coming 1/31-2/1

[SACRUS]

 

18z GFS AI AIGFS TITAL QPF

 

[weatherpruf]

9 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

Quote from user FXWX on the New England sub...

"Growing up during the age of Miller A's, I will say this...  Some of the biggest busts I've witnessed and studied were intense Miller A storms.  Error / bust potential is often much less when dealing with Miller B events.  Given the historic look of the absurdly digging 500 mb trough, I would be very wary of this escaping too far east?

While history making events are always possible, that 500 mb evolution is beyond extreme!  If it develops as modeled, then it's one for the record books.  I think it would be wise to assume its (500 mb) intensity is not going to be as intense as modeled. 

Lots to consider; where will the primary form, does it jump / reform well to the east, or does it get tugged westward, stall, loop, ???

Thumb through the Kocin book(s) and you will find examples of Miller A's that were expected to graze southeastern SNE, and to everyone's surprise, ended up throwing heavy snow back into eastern NY?  Not saying this one will, but the evolution of the 500 mb level tells me this is not a simple escape east situation.

I think a more western track evolves on modeling tomorrow."

the best part of the kocin book is the chapter on near misses...there's one intense ice storm that looks incredible. in any case, the media is honking already and people are talking.....

[Monty]

1 hour ago, Franklin0529 said:

Don't you think they know better then us? 

After their 12-18" calls 24 hours ahead of Sundays storm? No, that cannot be taken for granted any longer. 

[Franklin0529]

Just now, Monty said:

After their 12-18" calls 24 hours ahead of Sundays storm? No, that cannot be taken for granted any longer. 

Didn't most of the City see 10-12" an they lowered their forecast multiple times in 24 hrs leading up to the storm 

[psv88]

3 minutes ago, Monty said:

After their 12-18" calls 24 hours ahead of Sundays storm? No, that cannot be taken for granted any longer. 

Most people saw 12-18"...

[MegaMike]

36 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Don - as you know, the NBM is time lagged and in the last 24 hours there were some bigger runs of models that show little to no snow now, like the Euro/AIFS.  I don't know how far back they go, though, but it sure looks like a blend of all the models most look at wouldn't be showing more than an inch or two for 95 vs. 6" in the NBM.  I recall last week the NBM was consistently showing 12-18" for our whole region through 48 hours before the storm (when most models were showing less and decreasing), which informed the NWS-Philly's 12-18" forecasts at that point - but then the NBM dropped a decent amount over the next few runs, such that the NWS stepped down several times from 12-18" to the 7-11" amounts they had for most right before the storm.  It's hard for me to imagine, right now what is causing the NBM to currently be so high. I'm not saying the models can't shift back in such a highly volatile setup, though, especially as we saw a shift north of about 150-200 miles from about Day 5 to Day 3 last week (and it kept going north). 

Oh, the irony!

I just commented about this in a different thread. 

At hour 84+, for snowfall specifically, the NBM uses the EPS (50 members), GEFS (30 members), and the GFS (https://vlab.noaa.gov/documents/6609493/32850490/CONUS_SNOICEACCUM.pdf)... So there must be some GEFS/EPS members that still support a (significant) snow event. You'd have to look at the individual members themselves to determine how (are there a few members skewing the mean, are there two different 'camps', etc..) that map you posted above is produced. I thought it was odd too.

For skewness, you could also look at quartile ranges provided at https://sites.gsl.noaa.gov/desi/?x4dLocations=["City"]&chart=x4d&lat=40&lon=-105&theme=dark&timeZone=local&hourFormat=12&x4dviewState={"latitude"%3A40.5%2C"longitude"%3A-100%2C"bearing"%3A0%2C"pitch"%3A0%2C"zoom"%3A4}&dset=HREF-CONUS&clusHghlgt=true&x4dMapStyle=3D&x4dMaps={"basemap"%3A{"value"%3A"Mapbox"}%2C"mapboxBasemap"%3A{"value"%3A"Satellite"%2C"parentValue"%3A"mapboxBasemap"}%2C"Airports"%3A{}%2C"ARTCC"%3A{}%2C"Cities"%3A{"checked"%3Atrue}%2C"Coastlines"%3A{"checked"%3Atrue}%2C"County+lines"%3A{}%2C"Countries"%3A{}%2C"Country+lines"%3A{}%2C"Countries+NonUS"%3A{}%2C"Country+NonUS+lines"%3A{}%2C"CWAs"%3A{}%2C"Graticules"%3A{}%2C"HUC+6+(CONUS+%26+OCONUS)"%3A{}%2C"HUC+8+(CONUS)"%3A{}%2C"PSAs"%3A{}%2C"RFCs"%3A{}%2C"Roads"%3A{}%2C"State+lines"%3A{}%2C"Tribal+Lands"%3A{}%2C"Vulnerability"%3A{"value"%3A"Social+Vulnerability+Index"%2C"parentKey"%3A"Vulnerability"%2C"parentValue"%3A"Vulnerability"}%2C"Watches%2FWarnings%2FAdvisories"%3A{}%2C"Zones+(public)"%3A{}%2C"Zones+(fire+wx)"%3A{}%2C"Zones+(coastal+marine)"%3A{}%2C"Zones+(offshore+marine)"%3A{}}&preferredFontSize=14&x4dDset={"renderOptions"%3A"t2"%2C"plotargs"%3A[{"fields"%3A["t2"]%2C"fieldOption"%3A"statisticalMeasures"%2C"trackingID"%3A"tracking_643d2e8c-941e-4f4a-99f4-e0f3eeab9bd4"%2C"layerorder"%3A1769554913471}]%2C"name"%3A"statistics"%2C"default"%3Atrue}&x1dGroup=Default&x1dSection=overview&x1dSingleField=t2&x1dGraphStyle=pdf&x2dGraphStyle=boxwhisker

[NorthShoreWx]

4 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Most people saw 12-18"...

Local perception.  Montgomery is down towards central NJ

[Snowguy66]

The NWS are still the pros.  

[Monty]

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Most people saw 12-18"...

 

4 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Didn't most of the City see 10-12" an they lowered their forecast multiple times in 24 hrs leading up to the storm 

 

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Most people saw 12-18"...

Warlock was referring to Mount Holly, not OKX. Mount Holly was painting all of their zones north of 195 in 12-18" 24 hours before the snow started. 36 hours out they were 12-18" all the way down to northern Delaware. Most people in OKX's zones verified but further south, Mount Holly hugged the NBM way too hard, way too long.

[Franklin0529]

Just now, Monty said:

 

 

Warlock was referring to Mount Holly, not OKX. Mount Holly was painting all of their zones north of 195 in 12-18" 24 hours before the snow started. 36 hours out they were 12-18" all the way down to northern Delaware. Most people in OKX's zones verified but further south, Mount Holly hugged the NBM way too hard, way too long.

But they lowered the morning of an night before. In Monmouth county I was forecast 12-18 then they lowered it and I got 11". 

[Roger Smith]

Coming soon to an Ocean near you. 

Well let's hope for better than that -- this could be anywhere from a K-U monster to a fish storm although I believe s.e. VA will score big no matter what. 

[donsutherland1]

19 minutes ago, MegaMike said:

Oh, the irony!

I just commented about this in a different thread. 

At hour 84+, for snowfall specifically, the NBM uses the EPS (50 members), GEFS (30 members), and the GFS (https://vlab.noaa.gov/documents/6609493/32850490/CONUS_SNOICEACCUM.pdf)... So there must be some GEFS/EPS members that still support a (significant) snow event. You'd have to look at the individual members themselves to determine how (are there a few members skewing the mean, are there two different 'camps', etc..) that map you posted above is produced. I thought it was odd too.

For skewness, you could also look at quartile ranges provided at https://sites.gsl.noaa.gov/desi/?x4dLocations=["City"]&chart=x4d&lat=40&lon=-105&theme=dark&timeZone=local&hourFormat=12&x4dviewState={"latitude"%3A40.5%2C"longitude"%3A-100%2C"bearing"%3A0%2C"pitch"%3A0%2C"zoom"%3A4}&dset=HREF-CONUS&clusHghlgt=true&x4dMapStyle=3D&x4dMaps={"basemap"%3A{"value"%3A"Mapbox"}%2C"mapboxBasemap"%3A{"value"%3A"Satellite"%2C"parentValue"%3A"mapboxBasemap"}%2C"Airports"%3A{}%2C"ARTCC"%3A{}%2C"Cities"%3A{"checked"%3Atrue}%2C"Coastlines"%3A{"checked"%3Atrue}%2C"County+lines"%3A{}%2C"Countries"%3A{}%2C"Country+lines"%3A{}%2C"Countries+NonUS"%3A{}%2C"Country+NonUS+lines"%3A{}%2C"CWAs"%3A{}%2C"Graticules"%3A{}%2C"HUC+6+(CONUS+%26+OCONUS)"%3A{}%2C"HUC+8+(CONUS)"%3A{}%2C"PSAs"%3A{}%2C"RFCs"%3A{}%2C"Roads"%3A{}%2C"State+lines"%3A{}%2C"Tribal+Lands"%3A{}%2C"Vulnerability"%3A{"value"%3A"Social+Vulnerability+Index"%2C"parentKey"%3A"Vulnerability"%2C"parentValue"%3A"Vulnerability"}%2C"Watches%2FWarnings%2FAdvisories"%3A{}%2C"Zones+(public)"%3A{}%2C"Zones+(fire+wx)"%3A{}%2C"Zones+(coastal+marine)"%3A{}%2C"Zones+(offshore+marine)"%3A{}}&preferredFontSize=14&x4dDset={"renderOptions"%3A"t2"%2C"plotargs"%3A[{"fields"%3A["t2"]%2C"fieldOption"%3A"statisticalMeasures"%2C"trackingID"%3A"tracking_643d2e8c-941e-4f4a-99f4-e0f3eeab9bd4"%2C"layerorder"%3A1769554913471}]%2C"name"%3A"statistics"%2C"default"%3Atrue}&x1dGroup=Default&x1dSection=overview&x1dSingleField=t2&x1dGraphStyle=pdf&x2dGraphStyle=boxwhisker

At 12z, 8 GEFS members and 1 EPS member had 6" or more snow for NYC. The EPS member in question had 16".

[Joe4alb]

Euro and AI anyone?

[North and West]

Several inches for us 

.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Joe4alb said:

Euro and AI anyone?

Euro alot further west

[Nibor]

Euro OP is gonna be west a bit. The trough digs deeper. The kicker is weaker and further back up stream. End result is still a scraper. 

[Franklin0529]

Euro to a nice jump west.. still in the game. See ya for 0z

[SACRUS]

[MJO812]

Gefs AI 

[Franklin0529]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Gefs AI 

Pretty big jump west there. Curious to see eps

[NEG NAO]

I don't think some people realize what a big deal this is going to be even if we only have a SECS with Arctic air in place and over foot of snow already on the ground - think about it - going to be difficult to plow and remove from driveways......

[Franklin0529]

Just now, Monty said:

A NWS office doesn't "know better" than others if their forecast is an outlier and then they shift towards consensus the day of. They were behind the curve on the last storm. 

Whatever ya say dude. I'm not arguing with you about it. 

[Santa Claus]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

I don't think some people realize what a big deal this is going to be even if we only have a SECS with Arctic air in place and over foot of snow already on the ground - think about it - going to be difficult to plow and remove from driveways......

streets are already a disaster

[Jt17]

I don't think some people realize what a big deal this is going to be even if we only have a SECS with Arctic air in place and over foot of snow already on the ground - think about it - going to be difficult to plow and remove from driveways......

The poorly placed snow piles in the densely packed streets of downtown Jersey City right now are a mess. Another 8-12 inches would be murder with this cold.


.

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I don't think some people realize what a big deal this is going to be even if we only have a SECS with Arctic air in place and over foot of snow already on the ground - think about it - going to be difficult to plow and remove from driveways......

Agreed.  there's a good 15 inches here maybe compacted down to 10-12 but the piles are huge

[WestBabylonWeather]

Little jumps west. Perfect at this stage

 

 

[Ridgewoodweather125]

Any updates on timing if this happens? Sunday morning flights to EWR seem safe?


.

[Nibor]

Nice Shift here. Hopefully this is the beginning of a correction.

[Irish]

This baby is starting to get reeled in...

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Santa Claus said:

streets are already a disaster

 

4 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

The poorly placed snow piles in the densely packed streets of downtown Jersey City right now are a mess. Another 8-12 inches would be murder with this cold.


.

Its a mess here in Brooklyn.  Parked cars are still snowed in and the streets are a disaster. People are also parking any way they can get into a spot.