Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow Sunday 1/25 - Tuesday 1/27

[Winterweatherlover]

I don't see how this can go that wrong for like 90% of the subforum, the Icon is super amped and still 6+ inches, the gfs is flat crap and still 6+ inches. 

 

I'm conservative in the sense I'm not expecting 12+ area wide although I guess the 12+ zone would be the part that will be fine tuned over the next few days.

[NorthShoreWx]

2 hours ago, Prue11 said:

What’s the likelihood in everyone’s opinion of LI seeing more than a foot?

 

2 hours ago, Prue11 said:

Central suffolk. If history proves it seems pretty likely 

Seems you've answered your own question.

[snowman19]

4 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I don't see how this can go that wrong for like 90% of the subforum, the Icon is super amped and still 6+ inches, the gfs is flat crap and still 6+ inches. 

 

I'm conservative in the sense I'm not expecting 12+ area wide although I guess the 12+ zone would be the part that will be fine tuned over the next few days.

Guess we’ll find out soon enough. I’ve seen “locked in” storms fail and I’ve seen “dead” storms come back to life in this very time frame more than a few times over the years. Just IMO the NWS doesn’t think this is locked in just yet if they are launching Hurricane Hunter recon flights and beefing up weather balloon launches to get better data sampling for the models

[Winterweatherlover]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Guess we’ll find out soon enough. I’ve seen “locked in” storms fail and I’ve seen “dead” storms come back to life in this very time frame more than a few times over the years. Just IMO the NWS doesn’t think this is locked in just yet if they are launching Hurricane Hunter recon flights and beefing up weather balloon launches to get better data sampling for the models

I guess it also depends how we define "fail."

[winterwarlock]

8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Guess we’ll find out soon enough. I’ve seen “locked in” storms fail and I’ve seen “dead” storms come back to life in this very time frame more than a few times over the years. Just IMO the NWS doesn’t think this is locked in just yet if they are launching Hurricane Hunter recon flights and beefing up weather balloon launches to get better data sampling for the models

2/20/25

[Monty]

1 hour ago, TJW014 said:

Anybody making snow maps before Friday AM is an idiot. If you want to make note of potential hazards? Sure, but I better not see numbers on a map

Boy that's over reactive. You need your weather outlets to be within 48 hours before you want them to make a forecast? 

[psv88]

1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said:

Euro AI

 

Wow. Wet system. Love to see it.

[MJO812]

NYC will get 8-12. I dont like the warming trend. Hopefully it cools down.

[Snowlover11]

3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Wow. Wet system. Love to see it.

That was yesterday lol posted the wrong thing.

[SACRUS]

 

 

18z Euro AI AIFS total QPF - storm

 

[SnowGoose69]

Just based on historical climo alone.  I know of no cases other than Jan 87 2/11/94 and 2/2014 where the area saw 8 plus near the coast then flipped over.  I guess you can argue 2/2008 but that was not a setup like this.  In general this type of setup is all snow most of the time NYC vicinity north

[Tatamy]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

NYC will get 8-12. I dont like the warming trend. Hopefully it cools down.

18z Euro has a front end thump of 7-10” for coastal areas before going to a lighter wintry mix.  Inland areas get 10-15”+.  The main feature is SLP that is tucked into the Delmarva and southern NJ coast.  This is still a significant storm for the area.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Tatamy said:

18z Euro has a front end thump of 7-10” for coastal areas before going to a lighter wintry mix.  Inland areas get 10-15”+.  The main feature is SLP that is tucked into the Delmarva and southern NJ coast.  This is still a significant storm for the area.

Defintely and I will be happy with that.

[Snowlover11]

Euro gets sleet up to westchester county, after a big thump. 8”+ in and around the city.

 

10-15” NW of the city

[sussexcountyobs]

23 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Can you post any supporting information? Maps perhaps. 

It is very warm. That's why my forecast high is 10F Sunday, and low is 9F Sunday night. It's getting too close for comfort.

[Tatamy]

We do need to watch the position of the 850 mb low on the Euro AI.  These screenshots are from 12z and 18z.  It’s getting further north and that will act to promote mid level warming.

[SnoSki14]

23 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

NYC will get 8-12. I dont like the warming trend. Hopefully it cools down.

Nothing we can do about it. I really don't want inches of sleet though, that would really suck. 

[wthrmn654]

Upton also all in

 

[BoulderWX]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Nothing we can do about it. I really don't want inches of sleet though, that would really suck. 

Yeah, this is a frozen event but sleet could do a huge number on reducing accumulations. Still it’s much better than freezing rain which would be horrific. 

[Prue11]

I’m not buying the warmup many weather/news outlets are projecting. I can see some sleet on the back end. But News12 just projected a map where it has temps going into the 30s Sunday evening for all of LI and NYC. Really just don’t see that happening but what do I know, I’m an amateur at this 

[wthrmn654]

22 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Just based on historical climo alone.  I know of no cases other than Jan 87 2/11/94 and 2/2014 where the area saw 8 plus near the coast then flipped over.  I guess you can argue 2/2008 but that was not a setup like this.  In general this type of setup is all snow most of the time NYC vicinity north

2014 was Nemo? 

[Prue11]

Just now, wthrmn654 said:

2014 was Nemo? 

2013. Started as heavy rain then flipped to snow around dusk 

[wthrmn654]

Just now, Prue11 said:

2013. Started as heavy rain then flipped to snow around dusk 

No, it was about a foot of snow then rain at midnight then back to snow and temperatures dropping like a rock.  Cars stranded on 347. Bulldozers and anything that could be used was used. 

[wthrmn654]

1 minute ago, Prue11 said:

2013. Started as heavy rain then flipped to snow around dusk 

Or Juno idk which storm it was

[SnoSki14]

5 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Yeah, this is a frozen event but sleet could do a huge number on reducing accumulations. Still it’s much better than freezing rain which would be horrific. 

Yeah but 4-6" of snow plus 1-2" of pure sleet on top when temps are like 20F would still be quite bad. 

[Prue11]

Just now, wthrmn654 said:

No, it was about a foot of snow then rain at midnight then back to snow and temperatures dropping like a rock.  Cars stranded on 347. Bulldozers and anything that could be used was used. 

I was working in Melville at the time and was living in kings park at the time. It rained all day then turned to snow when I left work at 4pm. You sure you’re not thinking of another storm?

[eduggs]

2 hours ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

Icon is literally the crappiest

model it's like looking at the old Cras

Don't assume it can't trend even worse.

[Prue11]

2 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Or Juno idk which storm it was

Def wasn’t Nemo. Maybe Juno. Nemo dropped over 2’+ in nearly all of suffolk. Medford was the jackpot with 32” and I think orient had over 30”

[wthrmn654]

Just now, Prue11 said:

Def wasn’t Nemo. Maybe Juno. Nemo dropped over 2’ on n nearly all of LI. Medford was the jackpot with 32”

All i know is it happened after sandy cause we were closed for 6 months and when it hit it was bad with snow rain to heavy snow,  with so much icy mess buried.  

[nycwinter]

how does this storm plow into a huge cold high and cause mixing like it ain't nothing something does not add up?