Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow Sunday 1/25 - Tuesday 1/27

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

One of those times where the weenie snow maps actually comes in handy. Temps are in the low teens when the snow comes in...that's nuts

I remember single digits in a storm a while ago.

[eduggs]

Hours 144 - 168 are probably undermodeled there in terms of QPF on the CMC. But it doesn't really matter since it's so far out.

[Snowlover11]

Oh Canada!!!

[WeatherGeek2025]

how come the aigfs didn't run

[SHELEG]

What did the 0Z AI GFS model show?

[SnoSki14]

Honestly I'd rather be further north than the Mid-Atlantic right now. If models fully phase in that western trough then the north shifts will likely continue. 

We're in a good spot this far out 

[Nibor]

Canadian pops a second low at the end as the trough swings through.

[eduggs]

Really nice improvement on the GEFS too vs. 18z.

[brooklynwx99]

the trend with the TPV splitting in two more is what you want to see - allows for heights in the SE to rise more

[SnowGoose69]

The CMC is phasing/turning the corner in a climatologically very rare location.  I have seen some systems do that but they are often monster deep Miller A lows.  I think in the end that idea would result in a phase either earlier and more west or more likely east near the SC/GA coast or GA coastline

[psv88]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

How come I got 2' in less than 24 hours in January 2022?

18” here. Incredible blizzard!

[eduggs]

UKMET looks sweet so far at first glance too. Same trends as other models. I didn't look closely yet. Hope I'm not wrong.

[Stormlover74]

Just now, eduggs said:

UKMET looks sweet so far at first glance too. Same trends as other models. I didn't look closely yet. Hope I'm not wrong.

You're not. It destroys DC and only crushes us lol

[Stormlover74]

Snow maps don't seem to be loading but its .75 to 1" qpf

[SnoSki14]

19 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Really nice improvement on the GEFS too vs. 18z.

Some great runs tonight. I know the AI GFS was meh but you can't win them all. Hopefully the Euro trends favorably 

It all depends on how much phasing with the western trough we see. Usually that screws us over but this time it's an asset. 

[MJO812]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Snow maps don't seem to be loading but its .75 to 1" qpf

Temps are in the teens lol

[Jt17]

What did the 0Z AI GFS model show?

Oddly enough didn't do so hot, but good model suite so far otherwise!


.

[Franklin0529]

Ukie gives us like a foot

[Rjay]

[brooklynwx99]

the TPV changing its orientation over the last day is big for us. went from centered over Nova Scotia to centered over the Plains. heights downstream have adjusted considerably higher as a result

[MJO812]

[Nibor]

I think a long duration storm is in the cards with this one.

[MJO812]

Euro AI is slightly south but still nice

[Rjay]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro AI is slightly south but still nice

 

[Rjay]

Post more maps guys.  Don't just say north/south etc, show us something.  I honestly don't even care anymore if it's just a snow map. I gave up on that years ago at this point. 

[SACRUS]

 

Euro AI AIFS QPF

 

[SACRUS]

GFS Total QPF

[SACRUS]

UKMET Total QPF

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GGEM Total QPF

[SACRUS]

GEFS - mean Total QPF

GGEM GEPS