12/2 Cold Rain and High Elevation Snow

[Weather Will]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

That’s not correct. Rgem is and hrrr at hour 48 12z was heading towards a snow solution. 

I stand corrected....WB 12Z RDPS

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Nam isn't, but Rgem is, though not as good as Gfs.

Still, like I posted earlier, I  would like to see the Nam and icon come for the ride.

Well storm starts developing in about 24hrs so pretty much should know an outcome by tonight. If models can’t get a storm right 36hrs out well then I ain’t going to waste my time on them the rest of the winter lol

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Well storm starts developing in about 24hrs so pretty much should know an outcome by tonight. If models can’t get a storm right 36hrs out well then I ain’t going to waste my time on them the rest of the winter lol

Yes you will

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 hours ago, Weather Will said:

Latest from NWS

Doesn't make sense - they have 2" for Bel Air, then 43% of getting 1"+

1" is much more realistic around here - the 12z GFS looks like ~1", less SE

[bncho]

i cannot identify a difference between the 0z and 12z CMC

[Weather Will]

16 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Well storm starts developing in about 24hrs so pretty much should know an outcome by tonight. If models can’t get a storm right 36hrs out well then I ain’t going to waste my time on them the rest of the winter lol

This is a marginal event; if it fails everyone will blame the phenomenon that shall not be named....

[mattie g]

Just now, Weather Will said:

This is a marginal event; if it fails everyone will blame the phenomenon that shall not be named....

Not everyone will.

[MillvilleWx]

@wxmvpete and I are working the WPC Winter desks this morning, so you'll see what we drum up here by the afternoon. Interesting forecast for sure, but fun to be able to have the hands in the first potential event of the season for parts of the sub  

[NorthArlington101]

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

This is a marginal event; if it fails everyone will blame the phenomenon that shall not be named....

I’ll probably chalk this one up to it being early December, personally 

[HighStakes]

Still quite a difference in precip. amounts. GFS advertising an inch of liquid north of 70 and Euro about .60. There are some things to really like with this system if you north and west of the beltways with some elevation. Maybe a good old fashioned 5-7 that ends in drizzle. Euro 850's and thicknesses and even surface temps look really good. GFS only a bit warmer. I would think any moderate to heavy precip is all snow.

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

I’ll probably chalk this one up to being early December personally 

True, but if this storm was a couple degrees colder it’s quite possible we’d be looking at least a slop storm to an actual snowstorm. 

[TSSN+]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

I’ll probably chalk this one up to being early December, personally 

I mean for the metro areas ya but euro been showing snow up here for like the last 3 days so if all a sudden inside 48hrs it goes away it’s kinda hard to believe 

[Weather Will]

Just now, mattie g said:

Not everyone will.

 

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I’ll probably chalk this one up to being early December, personally 

Fair....and I actually should probably have said "some"...

[bncho]

I wouldn't be too worried about missing this one, fellow comrades in the metros. We're already tracking two more events in the medium-range.

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

I wouldn't be too worried about missing this one, fellow comrades in the metros. We're already tracking two more events in the medium-range.

Ya cause trading one storm in for one a week away usually works out well lol

[WxUSAF]

9 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

@wxmvpete and I are working the WPC Winter desks this morning, so you'll see what we drum up here by the afternoon. Interesting forecast for sure, but fun to be able to have the hands in the first potential event of the season for parts of the sub  

Better hurry with those winter storm watches!!

[mappy]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Better hurry with those winter storm watches!!

Can’t snow without them 

[Chris78]

36 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GFS basically the same, a tick warmer, but if you are looking for a 1-3 inch event you are still in the game.

The main difference for Northern areas is less precip

[Chris78]

06z and 12z

[rjvanals]

Looks like a quick C-2” across the metros w a quicker than expected transition to sleet then cold rain while we get snow pics from our NW friends 

[Maestrobjwa]

19 minutes ago, bncho said:

I wouldn't be too worried about missing this one, fellow comrades in the metros. We're already tracking two more events in the medium-range.

I wouldn't do that if I were you...those two events don't even exist right now. The one we have for Tuesday is the only one we can count as real!

[Ji]

43 minutes ago, bncho said:

i cannot identify a difference between the 0z and 12z CMC

one is the 0z and one is the 12z

[Eskimo Joe]

27 minutes ago, bncho said:

I wouldn't be too worried about missing this one, fellow comrades in the metros. We're already tracking two more events in the medium-range.

Never, ever trade one storm for another!

[Weather Will]

When is the last time we tracked at the end of November.... kinda cool just doing that...

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

When is the last time we tracked at the end of November.... kinda cool just doing that...

Probably every year for a few days till reality kicked in 

[dailylurker]

48 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I’ll probably chalk this one up to it being early December, personally 

I live at like sea level and it's basically still fall here in the lowlands. But whatever lol. I'm off work until March 1. I'll be out in the Catoctins at daybreak gearing up for a hike up to 1800'. 

[mitchnick]

Euro AI looking like Rgem

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Euro AI looking like Rgem

With this much precip

[bncho]

12z Euro is awful for DC, with a big NW shift. might be a cave

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Euro AI looking like Rgem

My weenie take is that I don’t think the EURO AI can handle tight details like p-type. Would also be why the ens have a snowy bias.