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“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco


TheSnowman
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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't understand how fast flow in-and-of-itself would favor one longitude for phasing over another. Now, what I do understand is why tropical forcing overlayed onto said speed-of-flow increase may do that.

Well whatever is causing these systems to be so progressive, It's irritating...They need to wind up sooner. Turn the corner. 

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20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We had a ton of coastal storms until recently. It was always due to CC more moisture etc. Now we have a darth of them and we still blame CC. I’m all for CC and it has a fingerprint in our weather…..but I feel this is an easy scapegoat with recent confirmation bias. 

Yes, the "fast flow" explanation is a bit too reductive IMHO.

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40 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This is nothing to do with fast flow, it’s just a messed up block, pressing south.

The flow is not fast ...well not AS fast, as modeled.   The gradient is relaxed compared to the mean of winter thus far.  That's not it.

Something else unseen is guiding this thing's demise.  Right now, I'm a 'little' suspicious about data source and shadowing.   Firstly, I'm not sure if that's still a thing, or if there have been advances in packing the grids full of wonderful initialization density.   I'm inclined to think there's still room to question?  not entirely sure, tho.   But shadowing is an old school phenomenon regarding assimilated soundings.  When there are closely spaced wave mechanics from off the Pacific and/or any other data sparse regions where assimilated data populates the initialization grids, the assimilation may be caused to miss/under assess momentum where there is a lead system in between.  Symbolically casting a shadow.

This would be a candidate for that in 2006.   Not so sure in 2026.  In this case, the outside slider S/W coming down off the Cali coast (ends up Friday night's ordeal), may be causing the Monday's to be lost in the assimilation.  

Believe me, I was 50/50 for a compendium of pros and cons yesterday.  Maybe I'm 40/60 now?  say... But, I kinda sorta do want this one on-board and physically realized in this case before I go 1/99 

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

The flow is not fast ...well not AS fast, as modeled.   The gradient is relaxed compared to the mean of winter thus far.  That's not it.

Something else unseen is guiding this thing's demise.  Right now, I'm a 'little' suspicious about data source and shadowing.   Firstly, I'm not sure if that's still a thing, or if there have been advances in packing the grids full of wonderful initialization density.   I'm inclined to think there's still room to question?  not entirely sure, tho.   But shadowing is an old school phenomenon regarding assimilated soundings.  When there are closely spaced wave mechanics from off the Pacific and/or any other data sparse regions where assimilated data populates the initialization grids  Those assimilation may be caused to miss momentum where there is a lead system to consider first.  

This would be a candidate for that in 2006.   Not so sure in 2026.  In this case, the outside slider S/W coming down off the Cali coast (ends up Friday night's ordeal), may be causing the Monday's to be lost in the assimilation.  

Believe me, I was 50/50 for a compendium of pros and cons yesterday.  Maybe I'm 40/60 now?  say... But, I kinda sorta do want this one on-board and physically realized in this case before I go 1/99 

That loop Dendrite posted is telling. Good God is that a mess to sort out.

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4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this isn't what one would call far off

815945711_ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-vort500_z500-1783200(1).thumb.png.96c963e3fafe5b04fa58cd94745f63cd.png

It never is.....anytime there is a major storm modeled near the east coast that doesn't end up on a headline, it's usually not geographically far off from doing so. Like I said last night, it's not "over"...we are going to do this all week, but it in the end it's likely to be a blue-ball special.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It never is.....anytime there is a major storm modeled near the east coast that doesn't end up on a headline, it's usually not geographically far off from doing so. Like I said last night, it's not "over"...we are going to do this all week, but it in the end it's likely to be a blue-ball special.

yeah it's prob a grazer but hey, we track

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What a weird winter. An almost continental SWFE produces a huge Snow event for us as warmer air overrides below zero temps and single digits. Much of the rest of the seasons snow delivered on southerly winds,

Which I will never forget Charley Bagley saying how hard it was for it to snow on southerly winds. It would follow the seasonal tenor to miss Monday.

Too bad for pack enthusiasts bc I think region wide almost everyone would have a good chance of a huge pack if Monday planned out close enough to crush region wide. That's the last shot this season.

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11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It never is.....anytime there is a major storm modeled near the east coast that doesn't end up on a headline, it's usually not geographically far off from doing so. Like I said last night, it's not "over"...we are going to do this all week, but it in the end it's likely to be a blue-ball special.

And if it hits in the afternoon between 3-5 it’ll be the blue-PLATE special 

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2 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

What a weird winter. An almost continental SWFE produces a huge Snow event for us as warmer air overrides below zero temps and single digits. Much of the rest of the seasons snow delivered on southerly winds,

Which I will never forget Charley Bagley saying how hard it was for it to snow on southerly winds. It would follow the seasonal tenor to miss Monday.

Too bad for pack enthusiasts bc I think region wide almost everyone would have a good chance of a huge pack if Monday planned out close enough to crush region wide. That's the last shot this season.

It's now that time of year where the pack decays quickly in the absence of replenishment. 

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