Hazey

Lol the gfs went from a whiff at 6z to a decent storm at 12z to a cutter at 18z. Useless model now I guess.

Normally I'd say a whiff is just want you want to see at this lead time. They always trend west but this year? who knows.

Not boring up this way. Gonna have to watch that follow up low for Wednesday. Air mass will probably screw me but that’s close to a blue bomb if the heavy rates can get in here.

Annnnd we’re off! First measurable of the season. Just shy of an inch but it’s a start.

Try this http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?lang=en&map=na&mod=ukmet

A couple of head fakes and some weenies are stampeding for the exits...lol. Going to be a tough winter. At least we know the big storms models are blowing up in the 6-10 day timeframe are fraud. For now anyways.

That look like a map taken from just about every storm last winter.

The difference this season is that hopes aren’t inflated like last year. If this winter is sub normal, at least there was some indication that it could happen so not as much of a let down. Time will tell.

First headfake of the season. From a snowstorm that almost whiffed to a swfe to a front in about 3 days. Very impressive

This went from being a legit stand alone coastal storm to a low forming on the front as it swings through. The games models play.

Still think many will see their first flakes. Either from the system itself or from flurries after it moves by. That’s a win for early November.

The goal is to see first flakes. I still think that’s possible on the wrap around despite the amped and west track.

Any snow in early November is good snow...unless it’s a big snow and screws the rest of the winter...lol.

Be interesting to see in the gfs makes a move. The 18z ensemble mean was well north of the op run. See if it makes a correction this run.

18z ICON back to a track over se mass. Still some jostling going on with track.