Winter Storm Threat Feb 22-24th

[TJW014]

Just now, Tatamy said:

06z NAM has zip.  06z Ukie has rain from the city south at 66 hours.  It’s like these models are all in separate worlds.

I swear if this winds up being a rain storm I'd be more angry than if it whiffed, aside from putting a dent in the drought

[nycsnow]

11 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

I swear if this winds up being a rain storm I'd be more angry than if it whiffed, aside from putting a dent in the drought

Well you can probably eliminate the Ukie there is literally 0 support for that 

[nycsnow]

Rgem was a lot better at 6z as well

[SnoSki14]

17 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

06z NAM has zip.  06z Ukie has rain from the city south at 66 hours.  It’s like these models are all in separate worlds.

Those models also suck. 

[Northof78]

47 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

60 hours till go time. 

48….start time is Sunday 6am - 9am

[nycsnow]

Ai is the same  2mb stronger

[Northof78]

My local NWS forecast already has 3” - 7” for Sunday/Sunday night…

[nycsnow]

Euro is wet of 00z but has a crappy precip field lol people bowing down to this model? It sucks

[jm1220]

28 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

I swear if this winds up being a rain storm I'd be more angry than if it whiffed, aside from putting a dent in the drought

I’m not worried about it being rain, it’s probably from poor dynamics before the storm takes off. 

[Stormlover74]

Euro nothing like the gfs

[jm1220]

Just now, nycsnow said:

Euro is wet of 00z but has a crappy precip field lol people bowing down to this model? It sucks

Well as great as the GFs was for us, we really need to see other guidance jump on to have any faith in that kind of outcome. A minor/moderate brush still very much on the table. 

[nycsnow]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Euro nothing like the gfs

The low was in a better spot, precip field just looks weird. Euro has been all over 

[nycsnow]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Well as great as the GFs was for us, we really need to see other guidance jump on to have any faith in that kind of outcome. A minor/moderate brush still very much on the table. 

I agree; euro technically did go west but not like gfs I wouldn’t worry about precip field yet… but you’d think 970s/980s low south of LI would have a better looking map

[nycsnow]

Icon eps west with more west leaners

 

[WeatherFox]

The trend is “our” friend. The NWS is bumping accumulations in their forecast. I’m excited even though I am far south!

[WeatherFox]

Sunday

Snow likely, mainly after 1pm. Cloudy, with a steady temperature around 35. East wind 13 to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. 

Sunday Night

Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

[EasternLI]

Euro was right there though. Ignoring qpf output until 500mb is ironed out. 

[nycsnow]

2 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Euro was right there though. Ignoring qpf output until 500mb is ironed out. 

And the low was def west but precip output worse than 00z weird 

[North and West]

There are so many whiny babies on this board. Holy cow!  When models show nothing, the crying and calls for spring begin. Then when models swing back, you have some folks that get hyper pumped and others saying how much models suck and they don't believe it. 
Can't we just track, report and enjoy the journey?  

.

[Snowlover11]

Good to see the euro shit the bed

[kat5hurricane]

The Euro pulling a bit of a windshield wiper effect going a bit east gives me pause but what I'd give for the GFS to verify. I have GFS failure PTSD though so I just can't trust that damn thing. It's still the only model brining the big snows up here.

 

Edit: I see that the 6z Euro moved back west a bit. This is one of the most unpredictable forecasts that I can remember 

[EasternLI]

AI EPS getting closer...

[nycsnow]

Euro aifs are west with more members west as well

[njwx7]

Just now, nycsnow said:

Euro aifs are west with more members west as well

wow - all except one sub 980

[qg_omega]

Very unlikely Euro will be this wrong vs the GFS

[Wxbear25]

Even if this whole thing manages to miss us somehow, can we all agree on the fact that calling threats, especially incredibly complex ones such as this, over is stupid?

[Wxbear25]

2 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Very unlikely Euro will be this wrong vs the GFS

Even a blind squirrel is right twice a day

[EasternLI]

Regular EPS 

[BxEngine]

4 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Very unlikely Euro will be this wrong vs the GFS

Which euro you wanna go with?

 

[nycsnow]

7 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Very unlikely Euro will be this wrong vs the GFS

Euro don’t know what it wants to do so it’s throwing every solution there has not been consistent and sucks