It's coming 1/31-2/1

[WestBabylonWeather]

It’s coming. 

[mikem81]

6z EURO is 50-100 miles from something huge. Eastern LI gets a foot. Anyone have the EPS?

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Ova 

Not at all 

[greenmtnwx]

4 minutes ago, TriPol said:

You're saying the Boxing Day Blizzard was depicted on both the EURO and GFS as being over 150 miles southeast for days and then, within 48 hours, the models just started to show it move northwest and it eventually hit us?

Yes, where the hell you been? 

[TriPol]

2 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

Yes, where the hell you been? 

It's been 15 years. My memory from back then isn't the best.

[jm1220]

We can definitely get 75-100 miles NW out of this system at this lead time. People giving up are crazy. We do want to see consistent positive trends soon but even the most likely outcome now gives eastern LI a few inches. 

[Brasiluvsnow]

This mornings Euro makes me wonder if we might see some more ticks west from the other models today and as was mentioned can this storm close off farther to the North ? Let's see what the other guidance says as today progresses but IMO this is far from a done deal or OTS 

[cleetussnow]

18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Not at all 

I’ll give it to 0z.  Tonight.  

[SnoSki14]

23 minutes ago, TriPol said:

You're saying the Boxing Day Blizzard was depicted on both the EURO and GFS as being over 150 miles southeast for days and then, within 48 hours, the models just started to show it move northwest and it eventually hit us?

I remember that storm like it was yesterday with the infamous "convective feedback" 

Heard it was one of the top analogs for the coming storm too. 

[MJO812]

Cfs huge hit

[jconsor]

EPS 6z today vs 0z today and 12z yesterday... Baby steps toward a more impactful storm closer to the mid-Atlantic coast.

Notice the western US ridge shifts slightly further west and stronger in more updated EPS runs, while the "kicker" shortwave from Hudson Bay to Manitoba/Ontario and MN shifts weaker.

Also the TPV drops down further west and the departing upper trough over SE Canada is a little weaker, allowing better height rises over the W. Atlantic and New England ahead of the TPV.

[jdj5211]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cfs huge hit

0Z CFS was a big hit....12Z CFS runs later....not sure how good this model even is.....

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, jconsor said:

EPS 6z today vs 0z today and 12z yesterday... Baby steps toward a more impactful storm closer to the mid-Atlantic coast.

Notice the western US ridge shifts slightly further west and stronger in more updated EPS runs, while the "kicker" shortwave from Hudson Bay to Manitoba/Ontario and MN shifts weaker.

Also the TPV drops down further west and the departing upper trough over SE Canada is a little weaker, allowing better height rises over the W. Atlantic and New England ahead of the TPV.

I wish there were more METS like yourself posting in this forum to guide us through this potential for obvious reasons.........

[Freezing Drizzle]

www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/weather-climate-models/climate-forecast-system

All about the CFS, fyi.  Rarely see this one cited....

 

[Rjay]

4 minutes ago, jdj5211 said:

0Z CFS was a big hit....12Z CFS runs later....not sure how good this model even is.....

Worst of the worst 

[allgame830]

28 minutes ago, TriPol said:

It's been 15 years. My memory from back then isn't the best.

Xmas Eve morning bro! That morning run set the stage for all the rest of guidance to come back in line and gave us a blizzard. I actually remember it quite vividly. 

[allgame830]

Just now, Rjay said:

Worst of the worst 

Oh come on @Rjaybut it shows a hit LOL!! 

[Snowlover11]

Weenies clutching the CFS.

[weathermedic]

Good read from Upton's morning AFD:

Regarding the potential for a coastal storm for this upcoming
weekend, if any impacts were to occur it appears that the timing
would be late Saturday night and into Sunday, and possibly Sunday
evening. Most of the dynamic modeling has the storm being the
nearest of misses, or a side swipe / brush for eastern sections east
of the NYC metro. The longwave pattern does amplify, but the mean
eastern trough also begins to progress east while amplifying. At
this point in the modeling / forecast process the most likely
scenario is the nearest of misses, or perhaps the region gets
bisected with a sharp cut off in moisture / QPF. With an eastern
track and arctic air in place beforehand precipitation would in
the form of all snow. Most of the modeling on most of the more
recent runs has had the main 500 mb vorticity maximum pass just
south of Cape Hatteras would typically means a miss for our
region with heavy snowfall. However the slightest misrepresentation
of the upper levels by NWP would have massive consequences in
terms of sensible weather, especially further east across the
region. Strong winds remain a distinct possibility, especially
further east. Stay tuned because changes in the forecast for the
second half of the weekend remain in play.

[IYC77]

CFS if I remember correctly was the first to show the warm nose in the last storm.

Sent from my SM-S926U1 using Tapatalk

[NEG NAO]

13 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

Weenies clutching the CFS.

BUT - still have to consider this old saying "Every Dog has its Day"

[nycsnow]

[cleetussnow]

30 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I wish there were more METS like yourself posting in this forum to guide us through this potential for obvious reasons.........

NY metro is the weakest forum of the 3 major ones.  Like 5 or 6 regular mets.  

[allgame830]

7 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Need that 100-150 miles further west for something major 

[Nibor]

I like this trend on the EPS

[nycsnow]

Euro eps sniffed out last week first I think.. hoping for the best lol

[NEG NAO]

Just now, allgame830 said:

Need that 100-150 miles further west for something major 

not every storm around here is going to be major - most are not - expectations around this place get too high overall IMO

[EastonSN+]

We need the Forky line drop.

[nycsnow]

5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

not every storm around here is going to be major - most are not - expectations around this place get too high overall IMO

Just looking to add a few inches to the already big piles lol

[NJwx85]

1 hour ago, TriPol said:

You're saying the Boxing Day Blizzard was depicted on both the EURO and GFS as being over 150 miles southeast for days and then, within 48 hours, the models just started to show it move northwest and it eventually hit us?

Yes that would be correct. It went from a miss to a massive hit at like 48hrs out. Don’t quote me on the exact timing but it was Christmas Eve.