Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow Sunday 1/25 - Tuesday 1/27

[SBUWX23]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

My temperature went from the teens to the 20s on Sunday now.

the high for the day can happen before midnight, so you will be in the teens all day and maybe come up a bit late

[Snowlover11]

I dont know why people are panicking. 6z runs looked pretty damn good to me.

[Dan76]

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

My temperature went from the teens to the 20s on Sunday now.

Yup cold but no single Digit lows for me.

[SnoSki14]

If we do look at the Nam it drops tons of snow before any mixing. And whatever snow we get will be encased in ice and will get locked in for days. 

[Blizzardo]

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If we get 10” of snow with sleet mixed in at the end that will all freeze up and thicken the snowpack up, count that as a big win. Rather that than 15” all snow that melts faster.

No way... I gotta move it and once sleet hits , it becomes heavy and difficult. I'll take my 15" of clean snow thanks! Lol

[weatherpruf]

We’re still not in a regime that allows for big coastal storms like before 2020. Still very progressive and favoring fast moving/suppressed or SWFE type systems. If this one trends to a SWFE type system although one that’s much larger and more far reaching than usual it would fit the mold. 

I think this is the key in that the conditions just don’t favor those big coastals anymore. But this year it’s finding a way to snow. At least we’re not sitting on a month of 45 and cloudy or 2007s endless rain. In the early 90s conditions didn’t favor any snow at all for several years. Then 93 and 94 happened.


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[weatherpruf]

No way... I gotta move it and once sleet hits , it becomes heavy and difficult. I'll take my 15" of clean snow thanks! Lol

I think in these setups you have to get out and do what you can before a change over. Unless you are commercial.


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[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Didn't see any mention of the Euro AI from 6z. It's outstanding. 

It looks like that model is counting mixed precip as snow as the 540 line is north of us during Sunday afternoon like the regular Euro.

 

 

[weatherpruf]

If we do look at the Nam it drops tons of snow before any mixing. And whatever snow we get will be encased in ice and will get locked in for days. 

I don’t know if you were around for the 93 superstorm but that’s similar to what happened here, even in March it stuck around for awhile. We got screwed out of the 2 feet the south got, but it was enough to shut schools for days. About 11 inches encased in ice.


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[Blizzardo]

1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

I think in these setups you have to get out and do what you can before a change over. Unless you are commercial.


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I work for a township. I am out from when it first starts. But as a homeowner, yea, it's best to get out during and keep up on it. 

[weatherpruf]

I work for a township. I am out from when it first starts. But as a homeowner, yea, it's best to get out during and keep up on it. 

Thank you for service to your community. I’m retired staff from a school district and know you folks are out there at insane hours when most of us are curled up waiting for the storm to pass. Keep that thermos filled.


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[WeatherGeek2025]

good morning i see stuff trended north this morning. still plenty of time for this to come a little south and hit us like the GFS! 

 

Id like to say this, i'd rather have GfS than Euro at this range!

[EasternLI]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It looks like that model is counting mixed precip as snow as the 540 line is north of us during Sunday afternoon like the regular Euro.

 

 

Maybe. Wish more levels were available. Even if that happens the precip is about to shut off anyway I think with a dry slot. We'd have a good dump anyway before that. Still a ways to go with this thing. Should be fun to see what happens. 

[MJO812]

Alot of storms back in the day use to end as sleet especially near the coast 

[Jersey_Snowhole]

does anyone know how accurate the NBM is? 

[Tatamy]

28 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Didn't see any mention of the Euro AI from 6z. It's outstanding. 

Look at the temps at 700mb and 850mb.  It gives a different picture of the event precip wise.  Be sure to look at 96 and 102 hours.

[MJO812]

[sussexcountyobs]

Mt. Holly:

KEY MESSAGE 2...A significant winter storm appears increasingly
likely Saturday night through Monday morning. Substantial snow
accumulations will be possible across much of the area. Some
mixed precipitation is expected as well.

A closed mid-level low off the southwestern coast of CA will
gradually open and pivot northeastward, eventually phasing with
the northern jet as it approaches our region. This will place
our entire region in the left exit region of a potent trough.

Synoptic scale ascent is expected to begin overspreading the
region by Saturday evening. As surface low pressure begins to
approach from the southwest, precipitation is expected to begin
overspreading the region from southwest to northeast Saturday
night. Given the very cold airmass in place initially,
precipitation is expected to start as all snow. As the vertical
column moistens, snow rates may quickly become heavy, with rapid
accumulations possible.

During the day on Sunday, additional surface cyclogenesis is
expected off the Mid-Atlantic coast, with the surface low
tracking northeastward. The primary remaining uncertainty with
this forecast is the exact low track. In general, guidance
continues to suggest a low track fairly to the coast, with the
GFS as a relative outlier a little bit farther out to sea. Given
this low track, it is becoming increasingly likely that sleet,
freezing rain, and even plain rain will enter the picture for
parts of the area during the day on Sunday. Right now, this
appears most likely from about the Philadelphia metro and south,
and perhaps farther north for the Coastal Plain. While this
could decrease snow totals some, exactly where mixing occurs
remains uncertain, and confidence remains high in significant
snow accumulations. In addition, mixed precipitation would still
cause significant issues. For this region, DESI probabilities
of exceedance for warning criteria snow (5 inches) are over 90%.
Depending on how soon, and to what extent, mixing occurs,
amounts could exceed 10 inches for this area. Outside of the
aforementioned areas, all snow is expected, with significant
accumulations likely. DESI probabilities of exceedance for
warning level snow (6 inches) across the remainder of our
eastern PA and northern NJ counties are over 90%. In fact,
probabilities of exceeding 10 inches are 70-90%.

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Maybe. Wish more levels were available. Even if that happens the precip is about to shut off anyway I think with a dry slot. We'd have a good dump anyway before that. Still a ways to go with this thing. Should be fun to see what happens. 

Yeah, they don’t have p-types for that model. So we just have to estimate the p-types from the thickness values and compare to the Euro which has p-types. My guess is that we are going to get a very heavy front end thump on Sunday with at least 6-8” potential before any mixing. This has been the case with past SWFEs. We just have to watch the Southeast ridge next few days in the forecasts to refine the amounts. 

[WestBabylonWeather]

How about we don’t warm nose. That would be cool. 

[ILoveWinter]

3 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

How about we don’t warm nose. That would be cool. 

Warm noses are more common that not for SWFEs in our area. The original suppressed and cold runs seemed like a mirage.

[SACRUS]

06z Total QPF (snow 10:1 /mix p type)

GFS: 1.1 (11.1)
GFS AI AIGFS: 0.9 (10)
Euro:  1.1 (7.7 / SN/Sleet Frzr)
Euro AI AIFS:  1.2 (11.4 / sleet)
GEFS (mean: 1.2  (12.8)


 

[SACRUS]

 

06Z GFS

QPF:

 

Snow 10:1

[SACRUS]

 

Conistent now with 1 - 1.25 QPF

s

 

[CentralNJSnowman]

4 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

06z Total QPF (snow 10:1 /mix p type)

GFS: 1.1 (11.1)
GFS AI AIGFS: 0.9 (10)
Euro:  1.1 (7.7 / SN/Sleet Frzr)
Euro AI AIFS:  1.2 (11.4 / sleet)

 

For the Euro, are you saying that of the 1.1, 7.7 inches should be snow and the rest would be sleet + freezing rain?  Or would the 7.7 include snow + sleet?

[SACRUS]

1 minute ago, CentralNJSnowman said:

For the Euro, are you saying that of the 1.1, 7.7 inches should be snow and the rest would be sleet + freezing rain?  Or would the 7.7 include snow + sleet?

Total QPF is 1.1 and total snow at 10:1 (with sleet) is 7.7 - NYC

[ILoveWinter]

Interesting to see what the EPS mean shows 

[jm1220]

14 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

Warm noses are more common that not for SWFEs in our area. The original suppressed and cold runs seemed like a mirage.

We all know the tendency for these to trend north over time. 

[SACRUS]

06 GEFS:

 

 

Snow (10:1)

[SACRUS]

 

GEFS low mean