Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/25 - 1/26

[WeatherGeek2025]

2 minutes ago, mriceyman said:

I thought u self banned yourself


.

i said i would step away from posting for 48 hours if we didn't see a north trend from the models last night and we did so in here

[Big Jims Videos]

Models love to extend storm duration. 

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said:

I mean every single model is showing the same thing except the GFS. Ensembles are as well. I mean there's really not much more you could ask for?

true and the GFS ensembles disagree with its OP

[eduggs]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

I consider the GFS solution unlikely  as of now because of little support from other model guidance and the history of this model showing extreme solutions at this range in the past

I'm happy it's the GFS showing the miss and not the CMC, ECMWF, or UK. But big snowstorms are uncommon - everything has to go right and usually doesn't. So it's reasonable to be on guard for what might go wrong. Any signs of trending towards the GFS should be concerning if you want a big snow event.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Prue11 said:

We’re 5 days out so you really think what you’re seeing now holds true on Sunday?

Big potential when all the models show basically the same thing and the pattern supports it.

[Stormlover74]

Euro is around .75" liquid

[David-LI]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro is around .75" liquid

You already have the 12z run??

 

[WeatherGeek2025]

I like where we stand, i think the GFS will come around

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, David-LI said:

You already have the 12z run??

 

Yeah its been done a while now

[SI Mailman]

2 minutes ago, David-LI said:

You already have the 12z run??

 

Euro runs about 30 minutes earlier than it used to

[EastonSN+]

Yeah thats a big hit on the EURO.

 

[SACRUS]

[Stormlover74]

Just at 10:1

[TriPol]

8 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said:

Models love to extend storm duration. 

So would we!

[the_other_guy]

11 minutes ago, Prue11 said:

We’re 5 days out so you really think what you’re seeing now holds true on Sunday?

SANITY

[SACRUS]

[Nibor]

Vorticity being left behind in the SW this time.

[SACRUS]

[Neblizzard]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah thats a big hit on the EURO.

 

Not a major system but wouldn’t matter given how cold the airmass is.   We could see a foot even with .75 QPF.   

[SACRUS]

 

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Vorticity being left behind in the SW this time.

Yeah it was a sloppy phase and we still get a foot.

[Franklin0529]

The Euro is about a foot in the city more south. Onto happy hr

[NJwx85]

3 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Vorticity being left behind in the SW this time.

Yup, not a clean phase. It trended towards the GFS with regards to handling the SW energy.

[eduggs]

The 12z ECMWF is a step back from 6z and 0z. The phase is not as clean. It's still a great storm as depicted, just not as favorable as the past 2 runs.

[Nibor]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah it was a sloppy phase and we still get a foot.

Hopefully a blip and not a trend towards burying that energy.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The 12z ECMWF is a step back from 6z and 0z. The phase is not as clean. It's still a great storm as depicted, just not as favorable as the past 2 runs.

We get over a foot.

[SACRUS]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

12Z QPF Totals (NYC)

ICON: 0.9 - 1.1
GFS: Trace
GGEM: 0.6 - 0.8
GEFS: 0.5 - 0.6
UKMET: 1.00 - >1.00
Euro AI AIFS: 0.5 - 0.6
Euro: 0.7 - 0.8
GEPS:
EPS:

 

12z updated

[Superstorm]

3 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The 12z ECMWF is a step back from 6z and 0z. The phase is not as clean. It's still a great storm as depicted, just not as favorable as the past 2 runs.

What was 0Z and 6z euro?  I thought it  barely showed snow past the mason dixon.

[SACRUS]

 

12z Euro toral QPF 

 

[North and West]

The CMC would be the best storm for most in many many years. It has literally all the ingredients that we love: cold temperatures, all-snow, long duration, includes part of weekend, high QPF. Anyone saying it's not a big storm is crazy. It might not drop record snow anywhere/everywhere, but in a few spots that could rival the big ones even as depicted.

.