Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/25 - 1/26

[SACRUS]

06z EuroAI AIFS Total QPF - Storm

 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Monday  night should be better

Tuesday-air traffic will be a mess for a couple of days-later is better

[SACRUS]

 

1/21 06Z Total QPF - Storm

 

ICON:  0.8 (120H)
GFS: 1.0 - 1.2
GFS AI AIGFS:  0.8
EURO: 1.2
EURO AI AIFS: 1.1
GEFS: 0.8

[MJO812]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

Tuesday-air traffic will be a mess for a couple of days-later is better

Defintely 

Brunt of the storm will be Sunday but snow will linger around until late Monday.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

The primary hanging on too long can sometimes be problematic. If I recall that was the issue with March 2001.

I'm hoping for a March 2001 situation. I have to travel to Vermont on Sunday.

If I had known this wasn't going to be a canonical frontloaded la nina (thanks @snowman19), I would have booked the March 7-8 weekend.

[SACRUS]

06Z GEFS Total QPF storm mean

 

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I'm hoping for a March 2001 situation. I have to travel to Vermont on Sunday.

If I had known this wasn't going to be a canonical frontloaded la nina (thanks @snowman19), I would have booked the March 7-8 weekend.

Drive up early Sunday

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

Like blue wave said 90% of the time with these big storms you’re going to tend to mix. Let’s hope it comes at the end and when we dry slot. 

If only we had that volcano it wouldn't mix.

[donsutherland1]

For reference, the frequency of measurable snow events and the highest daily snowfall. The January 24-26 period is highlighted in red to reflect the coming storm.

 

[ILoveWinter]

Something that not many have mentioned is that if it does snow, it will last for quite some time as it looks cold for much of next week too. That’s another rarity as it often seems like we warm up right after big storms (with some notable exceptions). 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

Something that not many have mentioned is that if it does snow, it will last for quite some time as it looks cold for much of next week too. That’s another rarity as it often seems like we warm up right after big storms (with some notable exceptions). 

And we are also watching another potential storm next weekend.

[Prue11]

Can we enjoy this one before we even go think down about next weekend?

[forkyfork]

when all the models make a big jump to a similar idea the big moves usually stop

[larrye]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Monday  night should be better

That may be true, but who knows where the planes will be and what flights will be cancelled at that point?

[Mo Snow]

Unsure if this has been posted. Saw this update from Mt.Holly this morning

Gives NYC 71% chance of >6"

[mob1]

NAM will likely be a lot more amped than at 06Z, the phasing out west is way cleaner. Initially heights out ahead were a bit lower, but in the last few frames it rises. 

[Stormlover74]

Nam at the end of its run

[Wannabehippie]

That predicted ice storm in the south has the potential to be historic, extremely dangerous. Long term power outages, trees down, roads not safe at all for any vehicles. They will have to bring in salt/sand equipment, power line repair people from where ever they can. With the FEMA cuts, emergency funds might run low until a special funding bill can be passed. 

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Nam at the end of its run

This looks great.  Let's get Namd!

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, Wannabehippie said:

That potential ice storm in the south has the potential to be historic, extremely dangerous. Long term power outages, trees down, roads not safe at all for any vehicles. They will have to bring in salt/sand equipment, power line repair people from where ever they can. With the FEMA cuts, emergency funds might run low until a special funding bill can be passed. 

True but it is moving less south now based on recent trends. 

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

This looks great.  Let's get Namd!

I think it's more likely it comes in like a wall and turns to sleet at the end as dry slot comes through.  

[forkyfork]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

I think it's more likely it comes in like a wall and turns to sleet at the end as dry slot comes through.  

that's what i'm thinking

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

I think it's more likely it comes in like a wall and turns to sleet at the end as dry slot comes through.  

A glorified SWFE

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

True but it is moving less south now based on recent trends. 

You'll still see a nasty swath of ice on the southern flank of the storm regardless of where it ends up.

[Franklin0529]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I think it's more likely it comes in like a wall and turns to sleet at the end as dry slot comes through.  

Yea nobody would be upset with a foot that ends with a little sleet

[SnoSki14]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

A glorified SWFE

Yeah but one that could maximize over our region and dump 2-4/per hour rates for a few hours and us close to a foot of snow.  

[forkyfork]

4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yeah but one that could maximize over our region and dump 2-4/per hour rates for a few hours and us close to a foot of snow.  

the high is close to being perfect. i am not worried

[Franklin0529]

3 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

the high is close to being perfect. i am not worried

If you're optimistic. I'm all in

[Franklin0529]

[weatherpruf]

2 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

the high is close to being perfect. i am not worried

when this poster gets serious, i pay attention; i remember this quote from Jan 2016; "this is a storm for the ages.."