“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[Go Kart Mozart]

5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

It made a miraculous recovery. Same strength next panel.

Thank God!

[MuddyWx]

chef's kiss 

[ineedsnow]

3k koochie is 25 here 

[CCHurricane]

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

This would be an interesting 3 hours…

seeing widespread 3-4"/hour rates with that banding...

[ORH_wxman]

3k NAM sends like an April ‘97 arc of convection into that. That’s what obliterates SE MA

[Go Kart Mozart]

I vote for this:

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, CCHurricane said:

seeing widespread 3-4"/hour rates with that banding...

It’s got like 0.50” QPF per hour for a couple panels, ha.

[Bryan63]

Yeah...this is going to be a good one down here! My son spent his first 5 years in NC and now is going to get 2 20"+ storms in one winter.

[MegaMike]

18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I agree with all of this as the transition started happening when I was still forecasting full time. 
 

The older SREF suite definitely seemed to handle east coast cyclogenesis better so they had a decent amount of utility in those types of storms. I remember they were hammering some of that banding in the Jan 2011 storm too and eventually most of the other guidance converged to them. 
 

I’ll also say they used to perform exceptionally in the SWFEs too. I used them constantly in the 2007-08 and 2008-09 winters with excellent results. 
 

Obviously the newer SREFs are superior to the older ones in many other areas, but it came at the expense of one of the more important types of event we forecast for in this part of the county.

That's interesting.

Would you oppose retiring the SREF? Looking at the evaluation webpage, the GEFS currently outperforms the SREF.

[HinghamBoss]

Long time lurker, occasional poster.  These numbers and dynamics look special.

Bullseye for a 30 burger looks somewhere between that SE MA circle of rte 95 on the west to route 3 on the east and 44 along the south.  Towns like Foxboro, Hanover, Carver and Brockton.  I get the sense I may be just north and “only” get 15-20.”  Talk about first world probs.

[Diggiebot]

11 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

This would be an interesting 3 hours…

5-6 inches an hour type stuff 

 

[weathafella]

34 minutes ago, Masswx said:

Lets see 3k

If slays 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, MegaMike said:

That's interesting.

Would you oppose retiring the SREF? Looking at the evaluation webpage, the GEFS currently outperforms the SREF.

I would not oppose retiring them at this point. At least in New England, they don’t have a lot of utility to a forecaster. 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I would not oppose retiring them at this point. At least in New England, they don’t have a lot of utility to a forecaster. 

This is nutz Atlantic County 

[Masswx]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

If slays 

3k gives me 2.4 in of qpf hope my wish comes true

[Baroclinic Zone]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

3k NAM sends like an April ‘97 arc of convection into that. That’s what obliterates SE MA

Bullseye matches the BOX 1 in 10 prob graphic I posted a few hours ago.

[Masswx]

4 minutes ago, HinghamBoss said:

Long time lurker, occasional poster.  These numbers and dynamics look special.

Bullseye for a 30 burger looks somewhere between that SE MA circle of rte 95 on the west to route 3 on the east and 44 along the south.  Towns like Foxboro, Hanover, Carver and Brockton.  I get the sense I may be just north and “only” get 15-20.”  Talk about first world probs.

Does that mean the same for me? Don’t know where you are in hingham.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Masswx said:

Does that mean the same for me? Don’t know where you are in hingham.

 

where is your final call map?

[Masswx]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

 

where is your final call map?

Don’t know if I should make it tonight, or tomorrow morning. What’s your thoughts?

[40/70 Benchmark]

26 minutes ago, Greg said:

Definitely a further northward tug. I can tell right away. 

Nice, I figured we may see that at 00z....I'm sure tomorrow it will tick se and we lose our minds again.

[weathafella]

Hard to believe I walked in shorts and T-shirt and temperatures on the 80s.  About to board a flight from ATL-BOS.  Didn’t bring my shorts…

[CCHurricane]

2 minutes ago, Diggiebot said:

5-6 inches an hour type stuff 

 

7AM-8AM

[mattm4242]

Just now, Masswx said:

Don’t know if I should make it tonight, or tomorrow morning. What’s your thoughts?

You won’t be able to rest until you make it.

[MuddyWx]

[mattm4242]

Just now, MuddyWx said:

Good starting point 

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

3k NAM sends like an April ‘97 arc of convection into that. That’s what obliterates SE MA

Want know my sick, sick hope? It doesn't involve a jackpot, either... 

[ineedsnow]

need sleep need sleep.. ugh screw it one more run 

[moneypitmike]

Both the NAM and 3K give me over .7.  A little fix to tide me over until the Friday system.

[wxsniss]

Some freak soundings on that 0z 3k NAM... this is in southeast MA (though not the biggest DGZ):

[MegaMike]

50 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

I feel like some of those models are specifically geared towards ensemble forecasts.  You never hear about the NMM or ARW being used on their own as operational runs in forecast discussion.

Ensembles are usually more truncated (courser, less dz layers, greater time step), but a model (NAM, GFS, etc...) is just a name given to a set of model configurations. The core (dictates how the atmosphere acts) is one aspect of multiple modeling options/schemes.

Here's a table of some NCEP modeling configurations: https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/meg/home/table.html