“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, SeanInWayland said:

I recall reading in a book about the blizzard of '78 that there were two local maxima around Boston--Burlington with 50" and Foxboro-Sharon with close to the same. So yeah, other storms have a long way to go to match 78.

My dad was from Woburn.....had a ton of pics from that event and they were nuts...he plowed for 24 hours consecutively.

[bristolri_wx]

32 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

3 recon flights out right now

?

[dendrite]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

My initial thought was something along those lines but the soundings are absolutely nuts. Kind of reminds me of 2013 when we were seeing radar returns like that but it was all snow 

There’s heavy precipitation, but the reflectivity is bright banding. The model simulates it. View the ptype loop. The really deep blue shading that’s like 40dBZ is where the model tries to indicate wet snow.

[ineedsnow]

Just now, bristolri_wx said:

?

out sampling to feed into the models

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The storm is not gonna stall for and gravy snow for 20 inches after the fact case anybody is wondering if this is gonna match that

unless the modeling changes

Yea, no one is seeing 50", but I do think 30".

[MegaMike]

11 minutes ago, dendrite said:

More like anything past 0hr.  

I’m not the only one here that feels that way too. I know Will goes on SREFs rants because they pulled the spectral RSMs out for the ARWs.

lol I get it. Yea, I remember another meteorologist mentioning that they didn't like the WRF-NMM/ARW models. 

I've worked with them for a decade, so I guess I'm a bit biased.

I think @vortex95 works with the MPAS(?) so I wonder what his thoughts are regarding the WRF models.

The RSM must be before my time. I'm not familiar with it 

[ineedsnow]

staying up for the NAM then bed.. hoping when I wake up at 3 models trended great 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

There’s heavy precipitation, but the reflectivity is bright banding. The model simulates it. View the ptype loop. The really deep blue shading that’s like 40dBZ is where the model tries to indicate wet snow.

Ahhh yes I see it now. 

[ChangeofSeasonsWX]

1978 must have been like a 1 in 100 year event or something. 1888 and 1978 are the only two events that come to mind where 40-50 inches was measured in multiple locations for SNE. So maybe later this century we see another one.

[bristolri_wx]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

out sampling to feed into the models

Only one that I can see that's specific to this storm.  Not sure if the one out in the Pacific is going to be adding anything.

[MuddyWx]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

staying up for the NAM then bed.. hoping when I wake up at 3 models trended great 

You sleep?

[bristolri_wx]

3 minutes ago, MegaMike said:

lol I get it. Yea, I remember another meteorologist mentioning that they didn't like the WRF-NMM/ARW models. 

I've worked with them for a decade, so I guess I'm a bit biased.

I think @vortex95 works with the MPAS(?) so I wonder what his thoughts are regarding the WRF models.

The RSM must be before my time. I'm not familiar with it 

I feel like some of those models are specifically geared towards ensemble forecasts.  You never hear about the NMM or ARW being used on their own as operational runs in forecast discussion.

[WxWatcher007]

15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Fantastic work Donny !

Let’s verify.

Heading back in the morning.

[dendrite]

Just now, MegaMike said:

lol I get it. Yea, I remember another meteorologist mentioning that they didn't like the WRF-NMM/ARW models. 

I've worked with them for a decade, so I guess I'm a bit biased.

I think @vortex95 works with the MPAS(?) so I wonder what his thoughts are regarding the WRF models.

The RSM must be before my time. I'm not familiar with it 

I really like the 3k NAM…so much that I really don’t even look at the 12k much anymore except for mid/upper charts that aren’t as readily available with the 3k.

I don’t view the SREFs much anymore…ineedsnow forces me to see it. But when they transitioned away from the ETA and RSM members for the NMM and ARW we still kept watchful eyes on it. You would know better than me what the verification stats are, but sensible wx wise I feel like the NMM members performed better.

Even with this storm, the SREFs have had some members tracking the sfc low into LI or SE MA. No other operational models are doing that. They’re still pretty far NW at 21z, but every run they keep ticking SE toward the globals

But I appreciate all of the work that goes into these models and in trying to further the science and improve the verification and resolution. 

[ineedsnow]

7 minutes ago, MuddyWx said:

You sleep?

barely lol  probably sleep 12 hours Tuesday though 

[dendrite]

8 minutes ago, MuddyWx said:

You sleep?

He misses the 00z and 12z runs to sleep but wakes up for 6z to post all by himself. I don’t understand it.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

barely lol  probably sleep 12 hours Tuesday though 

I don't know if any of us can go that long without seeing the SREFs

[ineedsnow]

Just now, dendrite said:

He misses the 00z and 12z runs to sleep but wakes up for 6z to post all by himself. I don’t understand it.

Im at work for 12z 

[ineedsnow]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

I don't know if any of us can go that long without seeing the SREFs

storm will be over but Thursday night will be in view hmmm 

[ineedsnow]

NAM not as amped as 18z

[mahk_webstah]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

He misses the 00z and 12z runs to sleep but wakes up for 6z to post all by himself. I don’t understand it.

He’s my hero

[Baroclinic Zone]

00z HRRR slays

looks like timing is a bit slower than 18z run.

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

barely lol  probably sleep 12 hours Tuesday though 

Sleep right through the storm?

[Masswx]

16 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

out sampling to feed into the models

What model runs would start to import that data into their solutions?

[ineedsnow]

Just now, dendrite said:

Sleep right through the storm?

naw sleep 6pm to 11pm tomorrow then I'll be up until its over 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

00z HRRR slays

looks like timing is a bit slower than 18z run.

Seems too slow 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

00z HRRR slays

looks like timing is a bit slower than 18z run.

Any trends up here?

[Masswx]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

NAM not as amped as 18z

Lets see 3k

[weatherwiz]

Just now, dendrite said:

Sleep right through the storm?

That happened to me once I think in 2008. We were having a morning severe event (I think it was the day of the Swanzey, NH F2. I stayed up for like 2 days in a row excited for that morning and fell asleep as things were starting and I missed 1"+ hail at my house

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

NAM not as amped as 18z

Yea, I don't love the trends today.....hoping 00z changes, but not a good start, apparently.