Winter Storm Threat Feb 22-24th

[sussexcountyobs]

IDK? My gut tells me, "It's not coming".

I think all this fantasy ends by 18z tomorrow, or 0z Saturday. Not a Met or forecaster, but I just got that feeling. Hopefully I'm wrong.

[weatherpruf]

8 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

is this supposed to be good? looks like 2/6/10 all over again. 

[weatherpruf]

18 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Mar 2017 was the second worst bust where I live other than Mar 2001, maybe even actually worse. 12”+ predicted, ended up 4” maybe all washed away by the end. Utterly horrendous. Other than that disaster 16-17 was actually a decent winter. 

16-17 wasn't all that good in my region and the final straw was march. we actually did have about 5 of sleet and had to shovel it; not much rain. nothing much happened here until 2021, with the march 2018 storms underperforming for us.

[nycsnow]

4 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

is this supposed to be good? looks like 2/6/10 all over again. 

It don’t run out past 84 so ya would prob be good 

[weatherpruf]

4 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

It don’t run out past 84 so ya would prob be good 

thanks

[deathstar9]

32 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Mar 2017 was the second worst bust where I live other than Mar 2001, maybe even actually worse. 12”+ predicted, ended up 4” maybe all washed away by the end. Utterly horrendous. Other than that disaster 16-17 was actually a decent winter. 

There is no way that’s the bust he is referring to, it was an amazing storm north of the city and even the city never went to plain rain.  Southern Westchester got 8-10” of snow followed by 2-4” of sleet.  Northern Westchester and north was 14-24” with some sleet on top.

Also pretty prolific wind and drifting.

[SACRUS]

 

2/20 00z SREF

Mean QPF 24 hours

 

Sundat (2/22)  12z - Mon (2/23) 12z 

[SACRUS]

[weatherpruf]

5 minutes ago, deathstar9 said:

There is no way that’s the bust he is referring to, it was an amazing storm north of the city and even the city never went to plain rain.  Southern Westchester got 8-10” of snow followed by 2-4” of sleet.  Northern Westchester and north was 14-24” with some sleet on top.

Also pretty prolific wind and drifting.

tbh, there are enough busts in march to get confused if you are old enough...march 2004 also had a big one, with the city canceling schools for what turned out to be a car topper.....its' why i never expect much out of march, or late feb.....i have one storm to point to in my life, late feb 2010..and my area still got shafted a little, being close to the city, at a reported 8 inches.....march 2011 also had one that caused delayed openings for what turned into a dusting....i'm sure there are others.

[weatherpruf]

12 minutes ago, deathstar9 said:

There is no way that’s the bust he is referring to, it was an amazing storm north of the city and even the city never went to plain rain.  Southern Westchester got 8-10” of snow followed by 2-4” of sleet.  Northern Westchester and north was 14-24” with some sleet on top.

Also pretty prolific wind and drifting.

yes but it was a bust south of there; the second coming was advertised, and we got slush and sleet....we know areas to the north can get big snows in march; but it is rare down here. only a handful over 11 inches in the city in march. so, even with this one here, until i see significant snow on my doorstep, i will be dismissive, we are close enough to the endgame of winter here. i do hope something happens; i will call 3-6 a big win.

[Mail Man]

Well the NAM is running still long range though.

[nycsnow]

2 minutes ago, Mail Man said:

Well the NAM is running still long range though.

Would love to see a big nam trend 

[TJW014]

I don't give a rat's ass about the NAM until tomorrow night

[ForestHillWx]

I feel like it’s been a while since we had a system eject from the 4 corners region out west. I vaguely remember data sampling issues with those systems. 

[Mail Man]

NAM looks a little amped so far.

[MJO812]

Just now, Mail Man said:

NAM looks a little amped so far.

Huge positive difference with the northern stream compared to past runs and confluence moving out faster.

[mriceyman]

Huge positive difference with the northern stream compared to past runs and confluence moving out faster.

Just wana get nammed one more time before it dissolves


.

[nycsnow]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Huge positive difference with the northern stream compared to past runs and confluence moving out faster.

And like Upton said we should have more data in these runs 

[golfer67]

4 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

I think the GFS needs to be retired. Inexcusable to be this out of step only 3 days out 

How do you know it's out of step? Did the event happen already?

[Mail Man]

Nam is looking sharp so far. Still early

[Jt17]

How do you know it's out of step? Did the event happen already?

Pretty sure this was written before every model caved to it.


.

[nycsnow]

Just now, Mail Man said:

Nam is looking sharp so far. Still early

[njwx7]

6 minutes ago, golfer67 said:

How do you know it's out of step? Did the event happen already?

Could the GFS score a coup on this one, maybe, but it really just is a woeful model. The GFS holding on to a solution for run after run only to cave to other guidance in the short term is almost always what occurs. The verification scores show everything you need to know:

 

The Euro, CMC (can't believe I'm saying that) and the Ukmet consistently outperform the GFS.

 

Again, could the GFS be correct in this case, sure, but overall it is just not a serious model. 

 

[deathstar9]

36 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

yes but it was a bust south of there; the second coming was advertised, and we got slush and sleet....we know areas to the north can get big snows in march; but it is rare down here. only a handful over 11 inches in the city in march. so, even with this one here, until i see significant snow on my doorstep, i will be dismissive, we are close enough to the endgame of winter here. i do hope something happens; i will call 3-6 a big win.

I thought he was discussing it with someone in Tuckahoe (southern Westchester county).  Was just saying it was a solid storm there and never went to rain.  It did go to sleet even up to my location earlier then initially forecast but still a top storm with 10+ snow/sleet combo Bronx north.  Believe the city officially  got 7-8” of mostly sleet.

[nycsnow]

[mob1]

Just now, nycsnow said:

Would love to see that backside energy aggressively phase and pump heights ahead of it as it's pretty low at this point. 

[Mail Man]

Something tells me this run isn't going to do it. But still long range.

[nycsnow]

Just now, mob1 said:

Would love to see that backside energy aggressively phase and pump heights ahead of it as it's pretty low at this point. 

It’s getting there 

[nycsnow]

Big changes @ 500 on nam, such a better look so far 

[nycsnow]

Wow