Winter Storm Threat Feb 22-24th

[Brasiluvsnow]

33 minutes ago, Wxbear25 said:

Unfortunately if you’re going to talk about budget cuts to NOAA and other scientific entities, it’s impossible to not talk about those perpetrating it

But I digress, 12z runs thus far have pretty much shown improvement across the board aloft so far. Here’s hoping the Euro follows suit

[kat5hurricane]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Flat as a pancake.    Either it's going to score a coup here or get embarrassed by the GFS/CMC

I'd roll with the Euro in this scenario, it's not perfect but it usually leads the others.

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, kat5hurricane said:

I'd roll with the Euro in this scenario, it's not perfect but it usually leads the others.

100% agree.   Not having the Euro on board is a problem

[Jt17]

Do you prefer Venmo, zelle, Apple Pay? I’ll take my 10 dollars 

He was talking about euro AI to be fair which is much better than euro. But def not tucked lol


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[SnoSki14]

46 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

You want to talk about cuts to weather agencies? That is fine. Keep your other politics out of this forum.

 

I come to places like this to get away from all that. Thanks

Lol okay 

[NJwx85]

Color me shocked that the Euro isn't on board.

[jm1220]

Maybe this one is different but flat as a pancake fits the tenor of this winter for any coastal storm. 

[SnoSki14]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Maybe this one is different but flat as a pancake fits the tenor of this winter for any coastal storm. 

Wave spacing is poor as Bluewave said. A SE ridge would be nice right about now 

[David-LI]

Sunny weekend on the euro. I am not giving up until NAM is in range.

[nycsnow]

Sizable shift east on euro ai eps

[nycsnow]

Big shift west on Ukie eps

[BoulderWX]

I still think a costal grazer is on the table but the fluctuating ensemble support, lack of EURO being on board, EC AIFS trending east makes it hard to put any faith in a major storm forum wide - not probable, but obviously not impossible. 

We're just starting to get some decent melting this week, so I'd be ok with a miss. 

[NEG NAO]

after reviewing 12Z Guidance

60 % chance - Advisory Level

40 % chance - SECS

30 % chance MECS

30 % chance below advisory level 

All of the above is IMO and for immediate NYC Metro only

[Jt17]

Sizable shift east on euro ai eps

Erm, I can't see 6z but 12z is basically the same as 0z


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[nycsnow]

1 minute ago, Jt17 said:

Erm, I can't see 6z but 12z is basically the same as 0z


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6z

[MJO812]

Ukie ensembles are lovely

[nycsnow]

Euro eps gross not even worth posting 

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Ukie ensembles are lovely

Models once again are all over the place 4 -  5 days out but overall improved from yesterdays let down - long way to go still

[SACRUS]

 

Euro with the proverbial kick in the groin

 

[nycsnow]

Euro eps just as gross as the OP

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Euro with the proverbial kick in the groin

 

does the EURO receive less data now because ofthe budget cuts here ? Who provides them data on U.S. soil ? I don't buy the EURO's being so different then the other models

[Wxbear25]

Need that stupid feature over SE Canada to get out of dodge so heights can rise ahead of the ULL, or else it will be squashed like the euro shows

[NEG NAO]

9 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Euro with the proverbial kick in the groin

 

looks like last nights 0Z run - is it still working with last nights old data only ?

 

[Yanksfan]

The model watching the past few days are like playing whack-a- mole. Another model run another solution. For the most part the 12z suite was encouraging but it feels tenuous at best with the Euro and EPS not on board. One would think in the next 24-36 hrs the fate with this storm will become much clearer.

[mattinpa]

8 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

looks like last nights 0Z run - is it still working with last nights old data only ?

 

Nice PHL-NYC snow hole.

[NEG NAO]

Just now, mattinpa said:

Nice PHL-NYC snow hole.

doesn't make any sense that the EURO would stay more or less steady BUT the other models all reacted differently from yesterdays runs to the new data fed into them at 12Z

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

doesn't make any sense that the EURO would stay more or less steady BUT the other models all reacted differently from yesterdays runs to the new data fed into them at 12Z

The Euro is THAT good.  Always shows no storm this year and it's been right!  LOL

[kat5hurricane]

37 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

after reviewing 12Z Guidance

60 % chance - Advisory Level

40 % chance - SECS

30 % chance MECS

30 % chance below advisory level 

All of the above is IMO and for immediate NYC Metro only

Below advisory level is way higher than 30%. When the Euro and ensembles agree that this thing is a whiff the other models are pretty much just noise.

[NEG NAO]

Just now, kat5hurricane said:

Below advisory level is way higher than 30%

then make your own list

[kat5hurricane]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

then make your own list

Based on what the Euro shows and overall trends I'll guess 70% whiff and 30% advisory level as of now. Subject to change of course but the trends seem fairly obvious IMO.