It's coming? 1/31-2/1

[mob1]

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Verbatim Euro is 2" for Suffolk County on East.

5-7 for the south form out to Montauk.

Still honestly close enough to trend towards a few inches for the city but after 0Z tonight if it still looks like this it's likely not happening. 

[eduggs]

Sometimes there is a weenie mid-level fronto band well northwest of model progs with these rapidly maturing ULLs. This band can produce as it pivots in place on rare occasions. I think this was more commonly undermodeled in the past when model resolution was much worse. That's the only morsel of hope I can think of. This one is looking pretty bleak. A big, surprise shift NW on the next NAM run would do wonders for morale. But we have no reason to think that will happen.

[donsutherland1]

The NBM is showing a situation that would be historically unique.

1/28 13z NBM:

Assuming Cape Hatteras receives 6" or more snowfall, the odds of amounts approaching 6" in New York City would likely be very low.

To date, none of the 6" or greater snowstorms in Cape Hatteras saw more than 2" in New York City.

While changes remain possible at the current lead time, there is no overwhelming evidence to support the historically unique solution shown on the NBM at present.

 

[ILoveWinter]

22 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Sometimes there is a weenie mid-level fronto band well northwest of model progs with these rapidly maturing ULLs. This band can produce as it pivots in place on rare occasions. I think this was more commonly undermodeled in the past when model resolution was much worse. That's the only morsel of hope I can think of. This one is looking pretty bleak. A big, surprise shift NW on the next NAM run would do wonders for morale. But we have no reason to think that will happen.

Wouldn’t say it’s likely to happen but it’s not impossible. 

[weatherpruf]

55 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

you'd think the guy could afford a decent hair piece.....

[WeatherGeek2025]

last time NAM scored a big one was January 23rd 2016 blizzard, can it do it again? NAM gets into range in the next run let's see how it does!

[North and West]

This was the chance for historic snow depths and cold. There are no obvious snow threats beyond this one on the horizon but it looks seasonably cold and northern-stream dominated. We'll probably have some snow chances in February, but the month is the beginning of melt season.

But it’s out of our control. I think it’s cool being this cold and icy and snowing a lot in days, if not total quantity.


.

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

The NBM is showing a situation that would be historically unique.

1/28 13z NBM:

Assuming Cape Hatteras receives 6" or more snowfall, the odds of amounts approaching 6" in New York City would likely be very low.

To date, none of the 6" or greater snowstorms in Cape Hatteras saw more than 2" in New York City.

While changes remain possible at the current lead time, there is no overwhelming evidence to support the historically unique solution shown on the NBM at present.

 

Their point and click is mostly rain with temps in the 40's, then a period of snow at the end FWIW

[wxman]

How many times in the last 100 years has Cape Hatteras recorded 6" or more of snow?  Would think that is also quite rare.

[Joe4alb]

Nam showing some promise early on

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, eduggs said:

This was the chance for historic snow depths and cold. There are no obvious snow threats beyond this one on the horizon but it looks seasonably cold and northern-stream dominated. We'll probably have some snow chances in February, but the month is the beginning of melt season.

February 1-20 is generally supportive of snow and sustaining snow. Once we get to the 2/21, that’s when it really starts to get not so easy

[donsutherland1]

9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Their point and click is mostly rain with temps in the 40's, then a period of snow at the end FWIW

Yes. At least that's the point-and-click for now. I was just commenting on the NBM's idea. 

[North and West]

February 1-20 is generally supportive of snow and sustaining snow. Once we get to the 2/21, that’s when it really starts to get not so easy

I think we will all be ready for Spring and the Mets to win.


.

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

February 1-20 is generally supportive of snow and sustaining snow. Once we get to the 2/21, that’s when it really starts to get not so easy

WE will all be done after another 4 weeks of this cold

[Jt17]

NAM pretty different


.

[Brian5671]

precip a bit more robust on the NW Side of the NAM-still 2 lows though

[Jt17]

precip a bit more robust on the NW Side of the NAM-still 2 lows though

The western low wins out if you go to 84. Wouldn't quite so it but way better


.

[hooralph]

Extrapolating the 84 hour NAM to save a storm threat is like rummaging through the medicine cabinet for cough medicine because you are out of alcohol.

[jm1220]

8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

precip a bit more robust on the NW Side of the NAM-still 2 lows though

Actually 3 lows. The more of a strung out mess this is the less chance of any impact here. Hopefully to some extent it’s the models having trouble keying in on which low is dominant. 

[donsutherland1]

In general, a dominant first coastal low tends to pull the baroclinic zone offshore and the trailing wave further east. The NAM makes the second low the dominant low and that's the solution that would have the best chance of bringing appreciable snows to the coastal plain, not just eastern Long Island or southeastern New England. However, the NAM is just a single model and this is a single run of that model.

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

The western low wins out if you go to 84. Wouldn't quite so it but way better


.

take it with a grain of salt until a non-mesoscale model agrees other than the CFS - NAM past 60 hours not accurate at all even under 60 hours

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

3 hours ago, jm1220 said:

He used to live in Boston. 

That's no excuse

[nycsnow]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

In general, a dominant first coastal low tends to pull the baroclinic zone offshore and the trailing wave further east. The NAM makes the second low the dominant low and that's the solution that would have the best chance of bringing appreciable snows to the coastal plain, not just eastern Long Island or southeastern New England. However, the NAM is just a single model and this is a single run of that model.

Agreed, just another possible solution let’s see if something else shows it 

[Jt17]

take it with a grain of salt until a non-mesoscale model agrees other than the CFS - NAM past 60 hours not accurate at all even under 60 hours

Trust me a big grain of salt taken lol but it is way better than 12z taken at face value.


.

[WeatherGeek2025]

i dont hate the nam run

[NJwx85]

3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

In general, a dominant first coastal low tends to pull the baroclinic zone offshore and the trailing wave further east. The NAM makes the second low the dominant low and that's the solution that would have the best chance of bringing appreciable snows to the coastal plain, not just eastern Long Island or southeastern New England. However, the NAM is just a single model and this is a single run of that model.

This is what the 12z Canadian did. 500mb is a mess with a ton of vortices. I’m not sure if the models are focusing on the right pieces. Each run and model seems to be different.

[WeatherGeek2025]

[WeatherGeek2025]

can we change the name of the thread to maybe it's coming

[nycsnow]

People posting the cmc para on twitter… getting desperate out here lol

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

People posting the cmc para on twitter… getting desperate out here lol

KMA is next!!!