It's coming 1/31-2/1

[mikem81]

We needed that 100 mile shift west to stay in the game and we got it 

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

 

Its a mess here in Brooklyn.  Parked cars are still snowed in and the streets are a disaster. People are also parking any way they can get into a spot.

its the same out here in the suburbs on the side streets that are not snow emergency streets - they should have an ordinance that states you have to remove your plowed in car within a couple days but they don't - and who wants to have to stay home on the weekend snow bound ! Hoping for only a 2-4 or 3-6 max = sorry folks !

[Monty]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

Its a mess here in Brooklyn.  Parked cars are still snowed in and the streets are a disaster. People are also parking any way they can get into a spot.

I saw pics of people in Philly parked on sidewalks. Near me in Princeton I couldn't believe how poor the plowing was- shoulders not cleared, corners not cleared enough to see around. I wonder if a bunch of old heads retired and this was the first "big" snow for a lot of people plowing. 

[Nibor]

EPS also has a stronger deeper trough. Should bring things west a bit.

[Monty]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

its the same out here in the suburbs on the side streets that are not snow emergency streets - they should have an ordinance that states you have to remove your plowed in car within a couple days but they don't - and who wants to have to stay home on the weekend snow bound ! Hoping for only a 2-4 or 3-6 max = sorry folks !

I'm hoping for another foot because I like the mayhem

[crossbowftw3]

I’d count on city east for this one, and considering where I’m at and what amount of shoveling I just had to do, you guys can have this one.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Nibor said:

EPS also has a stronger deeper trough. Should bring things west a bit.

Yep way west

[SnoSki14]

11 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Nice Shift here. Hopefully this is the beginning of a correction.

Ridge out west is pretty far back so this definitely has room to trend NW. It's mostly about where it decides to close off that'll tell the story. 

And yeah historically it ends up being much further north than current forecast shows, which would be ideal for us. Definitely not out of the game yet, not this far out 

[Nibor]

Not perfect but moving in the right direction.

[Big Jims Videos]

Weary about the full moon, winds, and already chewed up beaches in many spots along the Jersey Shore. 

[Tatamy]

18z EPS mean

 

[EasternLI]

This is the best EPS run of today. Better than 00z 6z 12z.

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, Big Jims Videos said:

Weary about the full moon, winds, and already chewed up beaches in many spots along the Jersey Shore. 

Yeah it just sits out there and bombs, pounding the shore for a day or two

[WestBabylonWeather]

EPS mean with over 5” at islip and the west trends just started. Slow and steady baby

[dseagull]

100-125 miles NW, and its game on.  Plenty of time. Looking forward to recon data being ingested into models. 

[Nibor]

West shift

[Tatamy]

2 minutes ago, dseagull said:

100-125 miles NW, and its game on.  Plenty of time. Looking forward to recon data being ingested into models. 

I think just 50 miles will do a lot of good for people on the coast.  

[MANDA]

17 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

its the same out here in the suburbs on the side streets that are not snow emergency streets - they should have an ordinance that states you have to remove your plowed in car within a couple days but they don't - and who wants to have to stay home on the weekend snow bound ! Hoping for only a 2-4 or 3-6 max = sorry folks !

In this cold I'm happy to stay home with the fireplace going and the tunes cranking.  No desire to be out in this for any length of time.  Took the garbage to the curb this morning and nearly broke my neck on a thin layer of frozen slush, probably should not have been wearing flip flops though.    Roads around around here are still only one fully clear lane in spots.  The snow / sleet combo and the absolutely frigid temps is highly unusual around here.  Salt just has not been super effective.  The snow mounds in the Shop Rite lot are huge and will likely be around well into March I'd say.

Cars are in the garage here and even that is about as cold as it gets in there at 40 degrees.

[weatherpruf]

39 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I don't think some people realize what a big deal this is going to be even if we only have a SECS with Arctic air in place and over foot of snow already on the ground - think about it - going to be difficult to plow and remove from driveways......

they aren't even done digging out from this one....

[dseagull]

6 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

I think just 50 miles will do a lot of good for people on the coast.  

Dont get me wrong, as Im on Barnegat Bay... But id like to see a region-wide blockbuster event.  We cashed out in 2018 and 2022, on two bombs that left NYC feeling robbed of potential. 

[jm1220]

This is why we don't jump off bridges 120+ hours out with as fragile a setup as this. 

[Juturna]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

This is why we don't jump off bridges 120+ hours out with as fragile a setup as this. 

For real. Just take it as it comes, don't get too high or low this far out. 

[TJW014]

21 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said:

Weary about the full moon, winds, and already chewed up beaches in many spots along the Jersey Shore. 

Persistent S/SSE swell contributing to a lot of that erosion. Waves parallel to the shore slowly etch away rather than push/pull sand. There's plenty of sand being stored on the bars. Need a swell direction change, and can't be a strong swell either. 

[MegaMike]

21 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

At 12z, 8 GEFS members and 1 EPS member had 6" or more snow for NYC. The EPS member in question had 16".

Based on the link I sent, let's see if this checks out...

Both the EPS and GEFS have the same weights. 1.2% for each individual member (1.2%*[50+30]=96%)... The GFS has a weight of 4%, so the ensemble snowfall contribution would be,

9 = 8 GEFS + 1 EPS

SF_ens = 9 * 0.012 * 6" + 1 * 0.012 * 16"

SF_ens ~ 1"

NBM snowfall is SF_ens + 0.04*SF_GFS.

I don't know what the GFS had for the city at 12z, but it could be calculated;

NBM = 5.9" based on the map

5.9" = 1" + 0.04 * SF_GFS

SF_GFS = 4.9"/0.04 = a very unrealistic answer... So something is off.

Do you have the 6z totals? Mathematically, that's how the NBM (imo) calculates its mean.

 

 

[donsutherland1]

4 minutes ago, MegaMike said:

Based on the link I sent, let's see if this checks out...

Both the EPS and GEFS have the same weights. 1.2% for each individual member (1.2%*[50+30]=96%)... The GFS has a weight of 4%, so the ensemble snowfall contribution would be,

9 = 8 GEFS + 1 EPS

SF_ens = 9 * 0.012 * 6" + 1 * 0.012 * 16"

SF_ens ~ 1"

NBM snowfall is SF_ens + 0.04*SF_GFS.

I don't know what the GFS had for the city at 12z, but it could be calculated;

NBM = 5.9" based on the map

5.9" = 1" + 0.04 * SF_GFS

SF_GFS = 4.9"/0.04 = a very unrealistic answer... So something is off.

Do you have the 6z totals? Mathematically, that's how the NBM (imo) calculates its mean.

 

 

Unfortunately, I don't have the 6z figures.

[North and West]

streets are already a disaster

Use your sleigh


.

[Tatamy]

22 minutes ago, dseagull said:

Dont get me wrong, as Im on Barnegat Bay... But id like to see a region-wide blockbuster event.  We cashed out in 2018 and 2022, on two bombs that left NYC feeling robbed of potential. 

I am in Bethlehem, PA.  I have enough snow lol.  You guys on the coast can have this one.

[jdj5211]

Bernie not on board with this one……


.

[Snowlover11]

2 minutes ago, jdj5211 said:

Bernie not on board with this one……


.

Good, he’s a jinx.

[Wannabehippie]

We are currently in MJO phase 8 heading to phase 1, which is supposed to be "good" for east coast snow storms right? But then to phase 2/3, which is no bueno for east coast snow.