February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: Buckle Up!

[Chris78]

The Friday clipper looks even crappier than it did before if that's possible lol.

[Paleocene]

Just now, Chris78 said:

The Friday clipper looks even crappier than it did before if that's possible lol.

Hey I'll take my 0.7" friday pack refresher on top of the 0.5" I get weds

[snowmagnet]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

So much here…We almost get a snowstorm 48 hours after this. On aigfs we do. And it’s the long range gfs. 

some of our best storms have been a couple of days after a significant warm-up. 

[Heisy]

Well, so much for winter.

Sudden stratospheric warming coincides with above average temp periods for us so it makes sense. Statistically there is about a 70% chance we get normal or below normal temps in a few weeks (if the SSW happens) so hang in there

[NorthArlington101]

52 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Eh it’s what we hoped the midweek thing could be before its energy got split. It happens 

EPS/AIFS is honking for VA beach/NC again for the pt.2 of the midweek thing. Rich get richer

[SnowenOutThere]

25 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

EPS/AIFS is honking for VA beach/NC again for the pt.2 of the midweek thing. Rich get richer

I mean if our clipper falls apart even more it’s conceivable that energy helps make that storm come north. Probably too late for you but Cvill might get into the fringe

[mitchnick]

49 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

EPS/AIFS is honking for VA beach/NC again for the pt.2 of the midweek thing. Rich get richer

I'll say it till I turn blue, you want to be in the bullseye the first decent event(s) because it often tells you where anomalous snowfall will be for the season. Sure enough, the places that got hit several times in December keep on stacking it up.

[wasnow215]

27 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I'll say it till I turn blue, you want to be in the bullseye the first decent event(s) because it often tells you where anomalous snowfall will be for the season. Sure enough, the places that got hit several times in December keep on stacking it up.

West Chesterfield/Magnolia Green area got hit hard on December 9 or whatever that Monday was. 5 inches here.

Didn't even have a flake Saturday afternoon and evening.

 

Edit-Dec 8

 

 

[Ji]

in 2 days the pattern for Mid Feb went amazing to heinous. How does that happen so quickly? Is it that sudden? there are no step backs?

[Grothar of Herndon]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

in 2 days the pattern for Mid Feb went amazing to heinous. How does that happen so quickly? Is it that sudden? there are no step backs?

I am not sure why you are surprised. It has happened to us many, many times in the past and many times this winter. 

[87storms]

20 minutes ago, Ji said:

in 2 days the pattern for Mid Feb went amazing to heinous. How does that happen so quickly? Is it that sudden? there are no step backs?

The weather pattern went from NFC championship to 5-12.  Just checked the Euro…how’s 26/27 looking?

[mitchnick]

36 minutes ago, Ji said:

in 2 days the pattern for Mid Feb went amazing to heinous. How does that happen so quickly? Is it that sudden? there are no step backs?

2 week ensemble forecasts are as reliable and certain as 2 day Nam forecasts. 

[Ji]

@psuhoffman i know it might be a little early but if the Cansips is seeing a colder Canada for next winter(el nino), it could be an epic winter.

Last nino--canada was a torch--next winter---we should be starting from a much better place

 

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, Ji said:

@psuhoffman i know it might be a little early but if the Cansips is seeing a colder Canada for next winter(el nino), it could be an epic winter.

Last nino--canada was a torch--next winter---we should be starting from a much better place

 

The latest CANSIPS was indicating a possible modoki nino.  That would increase our chances significantly.  

[Ralph Wiggum]

11 minutes ago, Ji said:

@psuhoffman i know it might be a little early but if the Cansips is seeing a colder Canada for next winter(el nino), it could be an epic winter.

Last nino--canada was a torch--next winter---we should be starting from a much better place

 

A Nino with a -AO and possibly -NAO? Sign me up

 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

I'll say it till I turn blue, you want to be in the bullseye the first decent event(s) because it often tells you where anomalous snowfall will be for the season. Sure enough, the places that got hit several times in December keep on stacking it up.

Sometimes a QPF pattern persists all season...sometimes not.  Remember 2015, Everyone thought we were toast when all those snows hit north of us through January and early Feb...then it became our turn from Feb 15 into March.  That was maybe the most extreme example but it's hit or miss whether the a pattern persists the whole cold season...the problem with using persistence is it works until it doesn't and it's hard to predict when the pattern is going to change until it does.  

[Weather Will]

WB latest EPS extended looks like after the cold shot this weekend, it gets warmer for about 10 days, and then gets colder through the end of its run.  Best control run in forever shows the potential. Will it pan out?  We will know in 6 weeks. Yes, I know the control is just one member so I will also show the mean but we need to lift the mood in here, so no H5 jive from me tonight.

[bncho]

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The latest CANSIPS was indicating a possible modoki nino.  That would increase our chances significantly.  

PSU, why does the state of the Nino matter so much (east-based vs west-based vs modoki vs basin wide), and what unique effects might each one have for us? 

[stormtracker]

No turning back. Fuck it. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

14 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

it gets warmer for about 10 days

Warmer as in closer to average after exiting the arctic or warmer as in our first 60 since December?

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, bncho said:

PSU, why does the state of the Nino matter so much (east-based vs west-based vs modoki vs basin wide), and what unique effects might each one have for us? 

Where the warmest anomalies are changes exactly how the pattern sets up.  A more west based Nino places the tropical forcing closer to the dateline which is where we want it.  That tends to correlate with a trough southwest of Alaska...the downstream impacts of which are good for us.  An east based nino shifts the whole pattern further east and often we see the north pacific trough end up too close to the Pacific NW which floods the CONUS with pac puke.  We need that to be pulled back some.  

[dallen7908]

Warmer as in multiple days in the 50s - may or may not make it to 60. 

[RevWarReenactor]

41 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

Warmer as in multiple days in the 50s - may or may not make it to 60. 

Thats a shame. Chances of snow on snow are now gone. I know its rare. But it seemed like we really had an opportunity with all this cold. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

35 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Warmer as in closer to average after exiting the arctic or warmer as in our first 60 since December?

 

33 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

Warmer as in multiple days in the 50s - may or may not make it to 60. 

Yes, it will moderate around mid-month, I think that's been advertised for a bit now so no real surprise.  Also, keep in mind that mid-February max temperatures (looking at DCA) are pushing the upper 40s around that time period.  So getting into the 50s for a few or several days isn't exactly unusual or "winter cancel" territory.  Keep in mind, by the end of this upcoming weekend we will have had one of the most extreme and consistent cold spells in a long time, which will have lasted around 2 full weeks straight.  I think some perspective is lost with a bit of freaking out over a relaxing pattern simply because we've had such a prolonged period of very cold and well below freezing.  And if/when it turns colder and more favorable again, don't expect that we'll have the same level of cold at that point as what we've just experienced.  But we don't have it be that cold to score well the latter part of February and early March.  And despite what some on here feel, I personally don't mind a good snow event or two even in late February or March; who cares if it doesn't linger for a long time by that point, climatologically speaking.

[stormtracker]

We had historic cold and can’t show for it. What are we doing here? 

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Thats a shame. Chances of snow on snow are now gone. I know its rare. But it seemed like we really had an opportunity with all this cold. 

How about snow on glacier covered snow. A coating of snow tomorrow night is pretty likely. Might be paltry but it counts.

[clskinsfan]

Cant even win in a rainer ffs. 

[ravensrule]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

We had historic cold and can’t show for it. What are we doing here? 

Do you really want me to answer that?. 

[RevWarReenactor]

10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

How about snow on glacier covered snow. A coating of snow tomorrow night is pretty likely. Might be paltry but it counts.

Only half our region will score that dusting based on current models. Thats at best. 

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Sometimes a QPF pattern persists all season...sometimes not.  Remember 2015, Everyone thought we were toast when all those snows hit north of us through January and early Feb...then it became our turn from Feb 15 into March.  That was maybe the most extreme example but it's hit or miss whether the a pattern persists the whole cold season...the problem with using persistence is it works until it doesn't and it's hard to predict when the pattern is going to change until it does.  

Sure as hell worked this year. Lol Nothing's perfect, that's a fact, but when it comes to being the seasonal bullseye for snow, being the one for the first 1 or 2 events puts you in the "likely" category for the season imho. 2015 was an exception.  A very good one at that, but an exception nonetheless imho.