February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: Buckle Up!

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

It won't.   

Height lines are oriented nw/se at 99hrs. Pretty low probability it does.

[frd]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

 

 

 

NAO is dropping at that time, as the NAO block starts to rebuild then forecast to retrograde Westward.  

 

 

[stormtracker]

GFS is south of 6z so far, lol

[stormtracker]

Next.   Fucking cooked to the south.  lololololol

[Nomz]

Fine for hour 140. Would rather be clobbered on every run but I don’t really care enough atp.

[stormtracker]

We get something, but light as hell and the main slug is pressed south

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Next.   Fucking cooked to the south.  lololololol

If you use thr slide function for this 5H vort, not only is the weekend storm off the coast with its low height killing us, there's a s/w in Canada heading south making sure it gets crushed to our south.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2026013012&fh=6

[stormtracker]

I guess the only saving grace is, it's early.  And it's been changing every run

[stormtracker]

Just now, mitchnick said:

If you use thr slide function for this 5H vort, not only is the weekend storm off the coast with its low height killing, there's a s/w in Canafa heading south making sure it gets crushed to our south.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2026013012&fh=6

Yup, saw both.

[NorthArlington101]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

We get something, but light as hell and the main slug is pressed south

I assumed you meant south like North Carolina, not Central VA. If we want to treat the GFS like a normal model, this run is okay with me. In the game

[Ji]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Yup, saw both.

there seems to be more interference in New England that was not there at 6z

[stormtracker]

It's just a complete debacle, this run.  The heavy stuff is way south..and it got wetter down there.

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I assumed you meant south like North Carolina, not Central VA. If we want to treat the GFS like a normal model, this run is okay with me. In the game

you're right.  I don't mean North Carolina.   The heaviest bands are in North AND South Carolina.

[NorthArlington101]

you're right.  I don't mean North Carolina.   The heaviest bands are in South Carolina.

Then it’s rain? I guess WxBell panels are still loading but this doesn’t seem worth the consternation

[Ji]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

you're right.  I don't mean North Carolina.   The heaviest bands are in North AND South Carolina.

the southern wave looks real....the northern energy...who knows that could shift easily

[stormtracker]

5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Then it’s rain? I guess WxBell panels are still loading but this doesn’t seem worth the consternation

Yeah, it's raining, but the heavier bands was in our area.  It pressed way south.  And SV looked light, yours always look better/wetter.

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Then it’s rain? I guess WxBell panels are still loading but this doesn’t seem worth the consternation

Sure it does.  Because the main system has pulled south.  But ok.  Maybe Mitch and are crazy.

[Ji]

Canadian has potential lol

 

[NorthArlington101]

Yeah, it's raining, but the heavier bands was in our area.  It pressed way south.  And SV looked like, yours always look better/wetter.

The storm did intensity over OBX and now I’m raising my pitchforks with you. Like another 6-10” there on Kuchera. Apologies

But also it’s the GFS. I’m finally gonna learn the lesson to ignore it. Ignorance is bliss

[baltosquid]

24 minutes ago, high risk said:

             The mean has very limited value at this range, because a few snowy ensemble members can skew it.    The probabilistic output is far more useful, but I'm not sure how easy it is to find that on the web.

GSL’s DESI has operational NBM. 13z has DC north at 20-30% chance of >3” of snow. Richmond and north ranges from 30-60% chance of an inch, better chances north.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

The storm did intensity over OBX and now I’m raising my pitchforks with you. Like another 6-10” there on Kuchera. Apologies

But also it’s the GFS. I’m finally gonna learn the lesson to ignore it. Ignorance is bliss

The GFS is a suck ass model.  But it come sometimes give us insight in a broad way.  The Euro moved south too.

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

Canadian has potential lol

 

Nope, south.

  Sorry I'm a downer yall, but I have reason to be with this shit happening today and in the past.

[Amped]

Omg I think we might hit freezing day 6

[Kay]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Nope, south.

  Sorry I'm a downer yall, but I have reason to be with this shit happening today and in the past.

Give it to us straight. 

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Nope, south.

  Sorry I'm a downer yall, but I have reason to be with this shit happening today and in the past.

I guess I'm just not willing to sweat this one yet. Trends aren't awesome. Long as it doesn't turn into an OBX bomb like the GFS I won't lose much sleep.

Hearing some chatter from Tomer + others for mid-Atlantic threat mid-month. Probably on the one day it would be horrifically inconvenient for me and my folks. Think we'll have something else to track even if this window totally evaporates in the next 2 days.

[Ji]

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Nope, south.

  Sorry I'm a downer yall, but I have reason to be with this shit happening today and in the past.

at least boston gets a blizzard

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2026013012/gfs_mslp_pcpn_us_33.png

[clskinsfan]

The Canadian is pretty much a carbon copy of todays snow map debacle. This shit is getting old man. 

[T. August]

I’m still interested but the one red flag I saw last night and this morning was such little support on the EPS and euro AI. Not a good look.

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

at least boston gets a blizzard

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2026013012/gfs_mslp_pcpn_us_33.png

On the Gfs? They've got to be excited.

[stormtracker]

5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I guess I'm just not willing to sweat this one yet. Trends aren't awesome. Long as it doesn't turn into an OBX bomb like the GFS I won't lose much sleep.

Hearing some chatter from Tomer + others for mid-Atlantic threat mid-month. Probably on the one day it would be horrifically inconvenient for me and my folks. Think we'll have something else to track even if this window totally evaporates in the next 2 days.

Normally, of course I wouldn't sweat it.   I'd be enthusiastically tracking it and positive as hell.  But the same thing keeps happening.   I'm gonna head out if this keeps up.  No reason to bring the board down.