February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: Buckle Up!

[winter_warlock]

26 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Another miller b....

[Heisy]

Nice, we lose thermals.  Surface wise anyway. Obviously

If that shortwave was more consolidated that would have been more AiGFS like. Not bad this range

[winter_warlock]

I'm thinking we wait a lil longer before making a thread for the storm on the 5th  ..   and yes I'm superstitious and don't wanna jinx it 

[frd]

4 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

I'm thinking we wait a lil longer before making a thread for the storm on the 5th  ..   and yes I'm superstitious and don't wanna jinx it 

Make it on the 4 th 

[Heisy]

Really not bad at all, curious what 18z euro/ai do this run

[SnowenOutThere]

3 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is pretty striking. retrograding block and a legit 50/50 in place... vort over the Four Corners is making its way under the block

Remarkably similar to last weeks setup. As a reminder to folks it took a truly Herculean amount of things to go wrong for that setup to “bust” as badly as it did.  

[SnowenOutThere]

4 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Really not bad at all, curious what 18z euro/ai do this run

I like this map. If we can get the disturbance underneath us we don’t need to worry too much about the 18z gfs rainstorm in a cold pattern outcome. Instead we get an 18z ai gfs snowstorm for the whole forum.  

[TowsonWeather]

1 hour ago, stormy said:

Thanks,  I prefer to get along with everyone, but I don't buy into a belief because of popular frenetic clamor as we often witness.

The Euro is without doubt the most reliable model, but, it is far from perfect.  A highly intelligent person would say, Euro is number 1 but the GFS is a close number 2.

AI gives a 60 - 70% verification for both.

I constantly read on this site that the GFS should be retired, banned or otherwise thrown in the trash because of how inferior it is.  That is simply not true by intelligent persons.

As Jerry Lund used to say, the lunatic fringe is out of control.

There’s plenty of hyperbole on here about the GFS. And yet, I’ve read similarly hyperbolic and silly comments from you about the Euro.
 

Pretending otherwise or acting as if you’re just some level-headed bastion of objectivity is comically absurd.

The fact is that the Euro is consistently the best model - and yet YOU consistently shit on it, often using some oddly sourced IMBY-based critique that isn’t remotely relevant. 
 

Regardless, I don’t wanna derail the long term thread, so I’ll let this be my last word on the matter.

[Heisy]

this is pretty striking. retrograding block and a legit 50/50 in place... vort over the Four Corners is making its way under the block

It’s a really good setup, 1/20/2005 was number 1 analog this morning. Makes sense, clipper redeveloper. More confidence for 95 N&W for this type of setup, but we’ll see how the shortwave evolves as we get closer

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, Cobalt said:

Modest lp close by with temps in the 20s. If only this could be locked in

Well, I am okay with tracking a shut down Outer Banks snowstorm with 60-70 mph winds (or are the models backing off on that now too) then onto tracking something in the next 3-5 days game on!!

[Maestrobjwa]

12 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I like this map. If we can get the disturbance underneath us we don’t need to worry too much about the 18z gfs rainstorm in a cold pattern outcome. Instead we get an 18z ai gfs snowstorm for the whole forum.  

Granted the nina busy NS doesn't screw it up again somehow...it messed with whst we're did get and pushed this weekend south! Hard to trust it, lol

[mitchnick]

Euro AI next week 10:1

 

[TSSN+]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Euro AI next week 10:1

Bring it 

[Paleocene]

18z op euro has the wave too, it's weak and disorganized but we get some pow pow

 

[bncho]

6 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

18z op euro has the wave too, it's weak and disorganized but we get some pow pow

 

Norfolk still finds a way to get more than DC, lol

[BristowWx]

5 minutes ago, bncho said:

Norfolk still finds a way to get more than DC, lol

Arguably the worst location in VA for snow has become a snow town. Ok.  

[RevWarReenactor]

Marginal temps. North trends. What could go wrong?

[GreyHat]

16 minutes ago, bncho said:

Norfolk still finds a way to get more than DC, lol

Maybe follow 6z & 12z GFS, does it show the system coming down out of Canada?

What do you say the 6z and 12z GFS says OTS? The 18z shows L coming east with snow.

The only thing I see different between the 3 is the L pressure coming out of Canada keeps the 6z & 12z south, 18z doesn't show it till later in the which allows the system not to go south and OTS. 

If that system comes out of Canada as depicted in the earlier runs wouldn't it stay south?

 

[stormtracker]

8 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Marginal temps. North trends. What could go wrong?

You posting.  Saying you're out.  Then coming back.

[jayyy]

The Euro AI has had it for multiple runs. That's all that matters right now.

Honestly… it’s been the best by far as of late

[clskinsfan]

31 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

You posting.  Saying you're out.  Then coming back.

[wxdude64]

1 hour ago, TowsonWeather said:

There’s plenty of hyperbole on here about the GFS. And yet, I’ve read similarly hyperbolic and silly comments from you about the Euro.
 

Pretending otherwise or acting as if you’re just some level-headed bastion of objectivity is comically absurd.

The fact is that the Euro is consistently the best model - and yet YOU consistently shit on it, often using some oddly sourced IMBY-based critique that isn’t remotely relevant. 
 

Regardless, I don’t wanna derail the long term thread, so I’ll let this be my last word on the matter.

Lots I'd like to say about this post, but I'll keep the peace.... for now. 

[87storms]

3 hours ago, T. August said:

For me personally, if we get a 1-3” event before the pack fully melts, then a bigger 4-8” storm to usher in the next cold shot, this winter would be an A+.

It's got some work for me to get to an A+ lol.  I'm at a C+ right now, though I could probably see this getting into a A- with your benchmarks.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

So it looks like both the ai gfs and ai euro agree on a light to moderate event overnight Wednesday into Thursday.  Having both AI’s in agreement is good. 

[bncho]

The AI-GFS is 54 hours of light snow and it works because it acts more like a classic Miller B and the coastal low forms that helps drop that extra precip, that's why it's ~5-10".

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

It’s kinda crazy how similar the ai gfs and ai euro look at 156, the surface maps are almost identical.  I wonder if the days of purely physics based medium and long range modeling are numbered.  

[NorthArlington101]

6 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

It’s kinda crazy how similar the ai gfs and ai euro look at 156, the surface maps are almost identical.  I wonder if the days of purely physics based medium and long range modeling are numbered.  

You could make a compelling case today that the only guidance worth looking at until the short range for Ptype is the AIFS and you’d probably be right. This hobby is a lot less fun that way but it’s perhaps the way we are rolling. 

[Scraff]

5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

You could make a compelling case today that the only guidance worth looking at until the short range for Ptype is the AIFS and you’d probably be right. This hobby is a lot less fun that way but it’s perhaps the way we are rolling. 

Definitely seems like the way we might be leaning for this winter and future weather life to come. So when do we get the AI NAM?