Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow Sunday 1/25 - Tuesday 1/27

[Stormlover74]

Icon slightly better. Need the rgem to hold 

[Winterweatherlover]

1 minute ago, SACRUS said:

I'm not buying freezing rain vs snow, theres going to be a lot of sleet in between. 

[SACRUS]

 

 

[SnoSki14]

Epic bust if Nam is correct. Gives me in central NJ like 3" before going to sleet lol

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, Blizzardo said:

I really think the models were better 20 years ago. What happen?! What were those short range models? The Suny NMM , I forget but they were spot on... 

They weren't better. People forget the massive shift within 48 hrs for the 12/26/10 blizzard for example. I thought that one was lost OTS.

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It got worse snowfall wise. 3k might've been better but snowmaps aren't loading

So the 12k flipped to sleet quicker but the sleet line did not get as far north which is a step in the right direction. We need 1 more tick like that.

[SACRUS]

 

1/24 00z ICON total storm QPF

 

 

Total snow / Frz (10:1)


 

[David-LI]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Epic bust if Nam is correct. Gives me in central NJ like 3" before going to sleet lol

If NAM is correct they should not retire it.

[SACRUS]

14 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

1/24 00Z

NYC

QPF / Snow (Frz)

SREF (mean):  1.3 /  9.7
NAM:   1.2 / 4.7
ICON: 1.4 / 8.1
 

Updated

[SnoSki14]

Just now, David-LI said:

If NAM is correct they should not retire it.

I guess we'll find out 

[EastonSN+]

Talk about no change run to run lol.

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

So the 12k flipped to sleet quicker but the sleet line did not get as far north which is a step in the right direction. We need 1 more tick like that.

We need the snow shield to be heavier/steadier. In 3 hours that NAM run surged the sleet line from Wilmington DE to Staten Island. The heavy precip is when it's sleeting. It would be varying snow rates for a few hours then all out sleetstorm for 60-70% of the precip that falls. 

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I'm not buying freezing rain vs snow, theres going to be a lot of sleet in between. 

Almost all of the guidance, including the NAM have the 875 mb layer down to the surface well below freezing. That would produce sleet. Some freezing drizzle can't be ruled out at some point, but the steady precipitation following the changeover from snow should be sleet.

[Blizzardo]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

They weren't better. People forget the massive shift within 48 hrs for the 12/26/10 blizzard for example. I thought that one was lost OTS.

But didn't the euro keep it? One model kept it.. they were still better back then..

[WestBabylonWeather]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Talk about no change run to run lol.

This hurts my soul 

[SnoSki14]

I can practically hear snowman19's giddiness after seeing the Nam. 

[SACRUS]

 The soon to replace NAM (q2?)  RRFS - Rapid Refresh Forecast System

1/24 00z

 

 

[Stormlover74]

Just now, Blizzardo said:

But didn't the euro keep it? One model kept it.. they were still better back then..

No they all lost it 3 days out

[Stormlover74]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

I can practically hear snowman19's giddiness after seeing the Nam. 

Meh he had it not coming north 2 days ago

[psv88]

1 minute ago, SACRUS said:

 The soon to replace NAM (q2?)  RRFS - Rapid Refresh Forecast System

1/24 00z

 

 

That’s colder 

[LVblizzard]

Just now, SACRUS said:

 The soon to replace NAM (q2?)  RRFS - Rapid Refresh Forecast System

1/24 00z

 

 

That includes sleet. The WB maps show a disastrous outcome with sleet getting well north of I-80 and just 6” for the city.

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Meh he had it not coming north 2 days ago

Yeah so much for suppression fears

Trough out west was a big red flag for this. 

[psv88]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Talk about no change run to run lol.

 

1 minute ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

This hurts my soul 

You ok? Icon added 3” for you in one run. 

[psv88]

Just now, LVblizzard said:

That includes sleet. The WB maps show a disastrous outcome with sleet getting well north of I-80 and just 6” for the city.

It’s colder than it was 

[Winterweatherlover]

5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Talk about no change run to run lol.

consistency either means right or consistently lost lol

[jm1220]

The other hi-res guidance seems to be better with the great front end thump. So the NAM is by itself so far with such a lame outcome.

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

No they all lost it 3 days out

And the GFS was first to bring it back. For a time, it was the only model showing a big storm, but its solutions were dismissed on grounds that they were the result of initialization errors.

[Jt17]

You ok? Icon added 3” for you in one run. 

lol people see what they want to see


.

[psv88]

Just now, jm1220 said:

The other hi-res guidance seems to be better with the great front end thump. So the NAM is by itself so far with such a lame outcome.

The NAM is totally out on its own. The other models are trending colder and snowier. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

reggie?

 

 

eedit/:::brrrrrr outside