Major Hurricane Melissa - 892mb - 185mph at landfall

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Ugh.... I was hoping for 899 mb on this final recon pass.  The FL wind is also 165 kts now.

That was a big time dropsonde in the NE eyewall. Given the pressure falls and FL wind this is probably stronger than the current advisory.

[hlcater]

Rumor is they're gonna do one more pass.

[Newman]

NE Eyewall Sonde. 160(!) knot surface winds?

[Maestrobjwa]

13 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Latest sonde: 902mb w/ 22kt wind. Melissa is on the cusp of going sub 900mb.

When's the last time that happened this close to landfall?

[WxWatcher007]

 

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 4:06Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5301
Storm Name: Melissa
Storm Number & Year: 13 in 2025 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 22
Observation Number: 28 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 3:42:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16.65N 78.52W
B. Center Fix Location: 147 statute miles (237 km) to the SW (230°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,247m (7,372ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 902mb (26.64 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 220° at 22kts (From the SW at 25mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 164kts (188.7mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 3 nautical miles to the N (4°) of center fix at 3:40:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 97° at 152kts (From the E at 174.9mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 4 nautical miles to the N (4°) of center fix at 3:40:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 160kts (184.1mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 6 nautical miles to the ENE (58°) of center fix at 3:46:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 154° at 165kts (From the SSE at 189.9mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 7 nautical miles to the ENE (58°) of center fix at 3:47:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,052m (10,013ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 14°C (57°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 165kts (~ 189.9mph) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the ENE (58°) from the flight level center at 3:47:00Z

[Newman]

Another thing to be reminded of... Much of Jamaica is well above sea level. For example, Mandeville (which could get raked by the eastern eyewall) has a population of 47,000 people or so and is at an elevation of 620 meters (2,000 feet). So I would absolutely expect higher gusts in those locations

[WxWatcher007]

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

When's the last time that happened this close to landfall?

Not sure off the top of my head. 

[Floydbuster]

So would Melissa be 190 mph sustained now?

[Radtechwxman]

They going to do an intermediate advisory or wait till next main one at 5am? 

[hawkeye_wx]

It does appear recon is going in for one more pass.

[Floydbuster]

I am guessing about 180-185 mph is quite possibly the current intensity.

[Scott747]

2 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said:

They going to do an intermediate advisory or wait till next main one at 5am? 

Intermediate at 2 eastern 1 central

[WxWatcher007]

5 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

I am guessing about 180-185 mph is quite possibly the current intensity.

Agree. Probably somewhere between 898-901mb and 155-160kt. Really glad they're going in for another pass. 

[HKY_WX]

Mind boggling. There are certain systems that defy the norms. This is def one of them. Not sure people are prepared for the scenes that will be coming out of Jaimaca. They've dogged the bullet so many times. Not this one.

 

[hawkeye_wx]

Final recon pass is 902 mb.... not going to get sub-900 for now.

[Floydbuster]

Reading around, I see that Hurricane Melissa could be the return period storm for the October 1780 "Savanna la Mar hurricane". 3,000 deaths were attributed to the storm just a week or so before the deadliest hurricane in Atlantic History hit the eastern Caribbean.

Note the similar track. I wonder if Melissa is the 245 year return period storm for Jamaica.

 

 

 

[WxWatcher007]

6 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Final recon pass is 902 mb.... not going to get sub-900 for now.

Thought it had a chance but I guess it leveled out. 

[WxWatcher007]

Likely the last VDM of the night. The eye size has been remarkably consistent. 

 

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 5:02Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5301
Storm Name: Melissa
Storm Number & Year: 13 in 2025 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 22
Observation Number: 36 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 4:36:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16.73N 78.49W
B. Center Fix Location: 142 statute miles (229 km) to the SW (231°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,236m (7,336ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 903mb (26.67 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 185° at 11kts (From the S at 13mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 156kts (179.5mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 4 nautical miles to the N (8°) of center fix at 4:34:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 99° at 149kts (From the E at 171.5mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 5 nautical miles to the N (6°) of center fix at 4:34:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 157kts (180.7mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 6 nautical miles to the SSE (150°) of center fix at 4:38:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 242° at 162kts (From the WSW at 186.4mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 6 nautical miles to the SSE (150°) of center fix at 4:38:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,054m (10,020ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,058m (10,033ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 165kts (~ 189.9mph) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the ENE (58°) from the flight level center at 3:47:00Z

[WxSynopsisDavid]

That 902mb measurement also had 22kt winds. That would make it 899mb. Really does suck that we don’t have a recon flight making another pass.

[Windspeed]

That 902mb measurement also had 22kt winds. That would make it 899mb. Really does suck that we don’t have a recon flight making another pass.

I noticed that, and the NHC may take that data into consideration on their next advisory if Melissa's satellite presentation doesn't degrade. The TC may have finally leveled off, however. It's going to be a while before we have the next recon data, and Melissa may be at peak now.

Edit: This is all really just meteorological geekdom. A few more millibars make no difference at this point. The hurricane is already in rare territory.

[Roger Smith]

175 mph = 288 km/hr = 288,000 m/ hr = 200 m/sec = 100 m in half a second.

Took Usain Bolt 9.6 seconds to run that far. 

[WxWatcher007]

2:00 AM EDT Tue Oct 28
Location: 16.8°N 78.4°W
Moving: NNE at 2 mph
Min pressure: 901 mb
Max sustained: 175 mph

[TriPol]

At this point Melissa is gonna complete an ERC before this World Series game ends 

[Roger Smith]

I was looking at some details of Jamaica's population and geography, would say if they have to take a hit from the core of this hurricane, the central third is perhaps less populated than the western third and certainly less than the eastern third. There is a central bisecting track that might spare Montego Bay, Negril and Savanna-la-Mar from worst case wind and surge damage, while keeping Kingston also out of the core. If it does go a bit further west and makes landfall around Savanna-la-Mar, unlike most of the south coast as well as west to northwest coasts, the land around there is very flat for miles inland. The town is on a peninsula that rarely rises above 5 metres asl. Negril is a bit more hilly and most of the town is well above surge limits (also the exposure is not as conducive to a major surge). There are parts of the south coast that are quite rugged and uninhabited, there are small towns across most of the inland south but the total population looks to be perhaps 5% of the total of Jamaica if the core were to take that track. The western third is a little hilly and the central third more so, but those higher Blue Mountains are all to the northeast of Kingston. I would not want to be anywhere near this monster storm but Josh does, anyone know where he chose to set up? 

[Windspeed]

I was looking at some details of Jamaica's population and geography, would say if they have to take a hit from the core of this hurricane, the central third is perhaps less populated than the western third and certainly less than the eastern third. There is a central bisecting track that might spare Montego Bay, Negril and Savanna-la-Mar from worst case wind and surge damage, while keeping Kingston also out of the core. If it does go a bit further west and makes landfall around Savanna-la-Mar, unlike most of the south coast as well as west to northwest coasts, the land around there is very flat for miles inland. The town is on a peninsula that rarely rises above 5 metres asl. Negril is a bit more hilly and most of the town is well above surge limits (also the exposure is not as conducive to a major surge). There are parts of the south coast that are quite rugged and uninhabited, there are small towns across most of the inland south but the total population looks to be perhaps 5% of the total of Jamaica if the core were to take that track. The western third is a little hilly and the central third more so, but those higher Blue Mountains are all to the northeast of Kingston. I would not want to be anywhere near this monster storm but Josh does, anyone know where he chose to set up? 

It doesn't matter where he initially set up. He'll go to where he thinks he will punch the core. He always does. I am pretty sure he's relocating west.


As for point of landfall, population distribution and characteristics, I highly recommend reading this paper in the Geneva journal of risk management.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/348943501_Poverty_and_hurricane_risk_exposure_in_Jamaica

I will post this image from the paper below. As you can see, we certainly aren't in any sort of best case scenario if the eye comes ashore further west. About the only positive I can see right now is timing of landfall occurring during daylight hours so people taking shelter can visually see what the hell is unfolding, because it's going to be shear chaos where this core crosses over.

[Normandy Ho]

Just absurd man

[Coach McGuirk]

Bad ass cat 5. 

[Coach McGuirk]

901 MB, 175 MPH. 

[Windspeed]

Jamaica's radar sites are not pulling down. So I jumped to the only other radar site I could find that has the core. This is the tower in Pilon, Cuba. It is quite long range so the echoes are weak from this distance. However, you can still make out Melissa's very symmetrical eyewall. Especially compared to any returns adjacent to it. To my eyes, there may be a moat on the SW backside, but I don't really make out any signs of an EWRC yet. We are running out of time for such to do any damage to the core. It would need to already be underway by now. I'm starting to feel like this is definitely going to be a strong Category 5 strike.

[olafminesaw]