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The last hurrah? Putting all the eggs in the Tuesday 3/14 basket


Ginx snewx
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6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

He’s not even looking at it. Let him go 

The bottom line is, which model does one believe and use as a forecast? Cuz if they use the Euro…there’s not a whole lot of snow for alot of people in CT/SNE outside Hubby and Ineedsnow. 
 

If you choose to believe the GFS and the Canadian and the NAM…well then it’s a different ballgame for CT.  Flip a coin I guess at this point. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

That was a pounding for eastern areas from like midday through mid evening tomorrow.

For eastern areas, actually not bad consensus emerging between 12z GFS / Euro / NAM (more so 3k). RGEM and CMC look on their own with torching the mid levels and looping system inland.

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2 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

The low sits over your house. In what world that is encouraging I don't know. 

You moved to the worst snow spot in interior CT that you could . No one is taking this verbatim. Everyone is telling you if you’d look that it’s an improvement from 6z .  The important thing is it moved towards the rest of the models . Not sure what you’re trying to do 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

You moved to the worst snow spot in interior CT that you could . No one is taking this verbatim. Everyone is telling you if you’d look that it’s an improvement from 6z .  The important thing is it moved towards the rest of the models . Not sure what you’re trying to do 

Simsbury is not the worst snow spot in interior Sne I can name about 15 towns around me that are worse. I know you get confused and tired this time of day take a nap

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Just now, wxsniss said:

For eastern areas, actually not bad consensus emerging between 12z GFS / Euro / NAM (more so 3k). RGEM and CMC look on their own with torching the mid levels and looping system inland.

I'd like to see just another half tick S and weaker with the IVT, and then I'd be very confident in widespread 8-12"

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37 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Hate to say it, but one of the issues we collectively have is that there are TOO MANY models to look at!  ICON / RAP / 3k NAM / HREF / Reggie 1 & 2... models which we (maybe just me) have little or no faith in.  Personally, I don't know the last time I even used the UKMET as a player in my decisions.  It's great to debate what they are all showing, but the vast majority of the forecast is going to come from a mix of GFS / Euro / ens info and occasionally some NAM stuff...  There may be some folks out there that really get into the RAP and/or HRRR for short range stuff, I use HRRR frequently but almost never beyond 12 hours.  I guess sometimes the RAP and HRRR point toward some trends to keep an eye on, but they can be so unstable, its hard to trust them for making major shifts in your forecast thoughts...  That being said, it is great for forum chatter... 

Don't get me started ... I've been trying to sort of poetically emphasize, there's too much technical deep dive reliance, and not even common sense ... The orbital perspective of the 'dominate factorization forest' provides and impression of its make-up that is obfuscated by the trees.. so to speak 

Not always - no... These tools are meant to supplement, though. Not take over... and fact of the matter is ( and too your point ) if one is being too far gone reliant  You know, actually you can't really look at everything in time.   Imagine that? Trying to categorize quantitative amounts of qualitative forecast metrics across a broad array, and then synthesize any kind of idea from?  In 6 hour before the next siege that quickly replaces ....   Nah. You'd almost need a super computer to integrate all the gunk coming off these super computers.

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