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The last hurrah? Putting all the eggs in the Tuesday 3/14 basket


Ginx snewx
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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You know...sorry to potentially dissapoint you guys, but I feel as though I may be too drained to even melt if I get porked...I have zero left in the tank. Ready for spring.

You’ll pass out and wake up to 22 inches as the sun breaks through-missing the whole thing.  I’d melt.

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You know...sorry to potentially dissapoint you guys, but I feel as though I may be too drained to even melt if I get porked...I have zero left in the tank. Ready for spring.

ha... took you this long? 

I get that way about Feb 15th every year.  -or something like that

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7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Sweet a moderate dot right over me!!!!

Whether it be a possible derecho or heavy, wet snow I always make sure to take time looking at the trees outside and wondering how many of them won't be there come tomorrow

image.thumb.png.4fb82bf19d82ff39c993a5504b188c46.png

major to extreme here  we take!

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

16z RAP was the first run that trended a bit colder at 925....still warmer than most guidance given the trend of the past several runs...it will take several more colder trends to reverse the warmer ones from earlier this morning. But we'll see if it can cool a bit because that makes a huge difference over the elevated interior overnight tonight.

Hey what was that weenie model that we used from WSI back in the day, the one you'd share always with horrible graphics that was used on TV a lot with WSI. It was always fun for a good laugh. I don't have access to WSI anymore.. 

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34 minutes ago, CTWeatherFreak said:

What happened to that giant FU valley shadow in Ct the canadian models (and others) had been prominently showing? What feature of the forecast storm development changed to basically wipe it away on the 12z run(s)?

I think models were overdoing the shadow effect but obviously surface temps still a big issue.  The CRV needs this to absolutely go to town with rates.  Nowcast all the way I think.

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4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Hey what was that weenie model that we used from WSI back in the day, the one you'd share always with horrible graphics that was used on TV a lot with WSI. It was always fun for a good laugh. I don't have access to WSI anymore.. 

RPM model....that was always a fun one.

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You guys do this...  You get this array of models all collocating at long last upon a consensus, then run out and look for any dark outlier you can find in order to turtle inside a neurotic left-out-of-the-party carapace

jeezus.   fuckign rap models

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You guys do this...  You get this array of models all collocating at long last upon a consensus, then run out and look for any dark outlier you can find and in order to turtle into a neurotic left out of the party carapace

jeezus.   fuckign rap models

That was the worst model of all time. Just couldn’t think of the name. 

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Convection is racing east but it wants to curl north..

Looking at the other convection coming out of the Great lakes diving down through Ohio, that seems to be going faster and my guess it will catch up with the low offshore and pull that in. In. It seems like it's going quicker than the one offshore in my eye

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Hate to say it, but one of the issues we collectively have is that there are TOO MANY models to look at!  ICON / RAP / 3k NAM / HREF / Reggie 1 & 2... models which we (maybe just me) have little or no faith in.  Personally, I don't know the last time I even used the UKMET as a player in my decisions.  It's great to debate what they are all showing, but the vast majority of the forecast is going to come from a mix of GFS / Euro / ens info and occasionally some NAM stuff...  There may be some folks out there that really get into the RAP and/or HRRR for short range stuff, I use HRRR frequently but almost never beyond 12 hours.  I guess sometimes the RAP and HRRR point toward some trends to keep an eye on, but they can be so unstable, its hard to trust them for making major shifts in your forecast thoughts...  That being said, it is great for forum chatter... 

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6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Convection is racing east but it wants to curl north...

Most all Models had that pulling East just after it looked like it wanted to consolidate off Delmarva , and then it made a wide right turn and sorta got toward CHH on some , some just stayed further out and a couple curled into toward scooter it seemed 

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