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The last hurrah? Putting all the eggs in the Tuesday 3/14 basket


Ginx snewx
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Just now, ma blizzard said:

15z RAP is hideous, worst run yet

Hopefully it's playing into its overamped bias beyond 9 hours. But I've noticed the trend on every HRRR/RAP run is to be stronger with the IVT low and flood more and more BL warmth into SNE. That will quickly end any top end snowfall forecasts if that trend is real.

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I remember a March storm when I was in high school at Barlow in Redding, I lived in Easton - I was probably the most south student as I lived on Easton - Fairfield town town by Smith Richardson golf course. I woke up to white rain and a slush coating on grass and nothing on roads so I got ready for school. Drove up Sport Hill Rd. (rt. 59) and quickly there was more than just a slushy coating, but still the roads were fine so I kept going.  Get to the Easton/Redding line by the Connecticut Country club and things went sideways. Inches of snow and very sketchy roads. I drove the Barlow because I had never listened for closures due to my house being just white rain. I almost got stuck at Barlow and school had been canceled. Went back home and still white rain. It was bizarre and this storm smacks of that.

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1 minute ago, cut said:

I remember a March storm when I was in high school at Barlow in Redding, I lived in Easton - I was probably the most south student as I lived on Easton - Fairfield town town by Smith Richardson golf course. I woke up to white rain and a slush coating on grass and nothing on roads so I got ready for school. Drove up Sport Hill Rd. (rt. 59) and quickly there was more than just a slushy coating, but still the roads were fine so I kept going.  Get to the Easton/Redding line by the Connecticut Country club and things went sideways. Inches of snow and very sketchy roads. I drove the Barlow because I had never listened for closures due to my house being just white rain. I almost got stuck at Barlow and school had been canceled. Went back home and still white rain. It was bizarre and this storm smacks of that.

Oct11 was similar. 

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59 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

:cory:Should not look at the CMC

I’m grading to the Grand Canyon Right now don’t worry.  Looking at Snow here.  Though THANK GOD I came to Flagstaff last Friday the other time I was here: 90% of the 2-2 1/2 feet of Snow is Gone.  
 

And Ya, CMC OBLITERATES ORH.  
 

But see I would have driven to there to Finally see a Real Snowstorm for the first time in 2 years.  So I Am still pissed.  

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It's looking like the coastal plain is kinda cooked on this one.  My expectation will be for a surprise if we get some snow as the storm moves east rather than disappointment in not getting the snow others are receiving.  Not surprising considering it's mid-March and there's really not much arctic air around.

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16z RAP was the first run that trended a bit colder at 925....still warmer than most guidance given the trend of the past several runs...it will take several more colder trends to reverse the warmer ones from earlier this morning. But we'll see if it can cool a bit because that makes a huge difference over the elevated interior overnight tonight.

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