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The last hurrah? Putting all the eggs in the Tuesday 3/14 basket


Ginx snewx
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6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Is that a good thing for SNE? 

Could be either..  heh.   I mean, that's the N/stream part of this phasing.  There's not much that can be gleaned from that loop, as to how it will perform down stream - unfortunately.

But, having it actually there and impressive means there will be a performance - I suppose it's good for that reason alone.

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2 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Hate to say it, but one of the issues we collectively have is that there are TOO MANY models to look at!  ICON / RAP / 3k NAM / HREF / Reggie 1 & 2... models which we (maybe just me) have little or no faith in.  Personally, I don't know the last time I even used the UKMET as a player in my decisions.  It's great to debate what they are all showing, but the vast majority of the forecast is going to come from a mix of GFS / Euro / ens info and occasionally some NAM stuff...  There may be some folks out there that really get into the RAP and/or HRRR for short range stuff, I use HRRR frequently but almost never beyond 12 hours.  I guess sometimes the RAP and HRRR point toward some trends to keep an eye on, but they can be so unstable, its hard to trust them for making major shifts in your forecast thoughts...  That being said, it is great for forum chatter... 

Very true but even just using what most use and going 20% nam and 40% gfs and 40% euro. This forecast is a nightmare. 

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4 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Hate to say it, but one of the issues we collectively have is that there are TOO MANY models to look at!  ICON / RAP / 3k NAM / HREF / Reggie 1 & 2... models which we (maybe just me) have little or no faith in.  Personally, I don't know the last time I even used the UKMET as a player in my decisions.  It's great to debate what they are all showing, but the vast majority of the forecast is going to come from a mix of GFS / Euro / ens info and occasionally some NAM stuff...  There may be some folks out there that really get into the RAP and/or HRRR for short range stuff, I use HRRR frequently but almost never beyond 12 hours.  I guess sometimes the RAP and HRRR point toward some trends to keep an eye on, but they can be so unstable, its hard to trust them for making major shifts in your forecast thoughts...  That being said, it is great for forum chatter... 

Yea. I've always though too much data can be a detriment, especially if they increase the delta. Regardless though, you will crush snows at 1.1k in Burlington. 

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32 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Sweet a moderate dot right over me!!!!

Whether it be a possible derecho or heavy, wet snow I always make sure to take time looking at the trees outside and wondering how many of them won't be there come tomorrow

image.thumb.png.4fb82bf19d82ff39c993a5504b188c46.png

You live on talcott mountain?

16 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The little minicane off the NC coast is a factor in mucking this up. 

that's our main surface low

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Well...this might tell you where the NWS is headed in their afternoon update for the Hartford area lol...

 

TERMINAL FORECAST
BDL NWS 131730 KBDL 131727Z 1318/1424 12010KT P6SM VCSH BKN026
OVC040
FM132000 11009KT P6SM -RA OVC015
FM132200 09009KT 1 1/2SM -RA BR OVC008
FM140800 04014G23KT 1SM RA BR OVC008
FM141200 03018G31KT 3/4SM -RA BR OVC008
FM141500 01021G35KT 1/2SM -RA OVC008
FM142000 35023G38KT 3/4SM -RA BR OVC008
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This is a disaster, and most definitely one of the worst sagas I've seen. Thoughts and prayers to those who have to make an official forecast.

I had no interest in being burned by this, and I'd gladly take a 3-6" event. I didn't need the 20-24" regardless of how lovely it would be. This winter? I'll take anything. Now? Thanks for the 3-6" of rain.

At least our poor little crocus won't be harmed :rolleyes:

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Well that's an enjoyable mindset to be in. Like NWCT into Berks sitting back, yawning, for 4 days...

There has been areas that have been in the 12-18"+ for a few days, That has not changed, Down by you its BL issues, Up here its been lack of qpf but the big numbers were and are never going to happen no matter what happens, And really, If i could get it to go to NW Maine, All the better.

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