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The last hurrah? Putting all the eggs in the Tuesday 3/14 basket


Ginx snewx
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6 minutes ago, weathafella said:

So my early am pee run around 7 tomorrow-if it’s flipped by then we’re getting buried.  If not-we may get 6+ but it would have to be snow by lunchtime.

Approx start time for snow in BOS area based on 12z runs:

GFS- 8-9am

Euro 1-2pm

CMC 3-4pm

UK 1-2pm

NAM  10-11am, but early end based on track.

I'm assuming that due to DST, 18z now means 2pm here.

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5 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Approx start time for snow in BOS area based on 12z runs:

GFS- 8-9am

Euro 1-2pm

CMC 3-4pm

UK 1-2pm

NAM  10-11am, but early end based on track.

I'm assuming that due to DST, 18z now means 2pm here.

And my lunch is usually 2-3…lol.

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7 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Approx start time for snow in BOS area based on 12z runs:

GFS- 8-9am

Euro 1-2pm

CMC 3-4pm

UK 1-2pm

NAM  10-11am, but early end based on track.

I'm assuming that due to DST, 18z now means 2pm here.

All you need is this.

image.jpeg

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10 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

What if.....hear me out....2" of QPF falls out of the sky as snow at 35 F and doesn't accumulate? That's basically what BOX's map says.

Then this will be the worst winter in the history of Connecticut. Not even close. 1935 Boston Braves level of putrid. 

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I'll be really interested in seeing how the R/S line responds to heavier precip later. A lot of these models have a very good cross hair sig over the interior with marginal BL overnight....typically, if you're trying to overcome a marginal BL, you want to see big lift in the DGZ which will make latent cooling more efficient as those dendrites fall into the above freezing BL. It won't make a difference if you're like +3C at 925, but in those areas that are around 1C, that's where things can bust.

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7 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Very minimal changes. Going to make the regional graphic look silly.

Can't speak for your neck of the woods, but if you add up each forecast for PWM and compare to actual, we're at 54.6" forecasted vs. 52.1" actual.  That's pretty damn good.  This is obviously unlike any other system this season w/r/t bust potential, but on the whole I'm inclined to ride the hot hand and go with their forecast.

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