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The last hurrah? Putting all the eggs in the Tuesday 3/14 basket


Ginx snewx
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This is going to be a classic March New England storm. The signal for a biggie in the 10-15 period has been around for a while, as Tip indicated.  The pattern supports it.  It is just a matter of when.  When's the last time we had a blizzard loop?  JMA and Euro both loop it into SE Mass.  Who cares what the GFS op does.  This one is coming.  It will probably be good up here, but finally and happily, not limited to us northerners.

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31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is the one IMO....been clear Saturday was a corpse for a while now. That said, I do expect precip type issues for some..probably do some sort of an updated write up tomorrow.

Be sure to include your backyard in those precip type issues...:lol:

prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp.us_ne.png

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So this thread will make actually getting a storm out of the 'critical period' to happen -  hey...whatever works.    

I think now would be a great time for Saturday to come back and end up being that event. 

I would only caution that back on the 3rd, the EPS mean looked virtually the same as what you are seeing now for this 2nd possibility we've been tracking for Tuesday, for this Saturday.  

Not sure I see a compelling reason at this time why Tues should be stirring more optimism or confidence. Both Saturday, and that latter one are within a particularly suggestive telecon indication as we've outlined already.  That should offer some confidence above climatology.  It may also be helpful to Tues if Saturday does not have some kind of transitive effect on wave-spacing. Best way to do that is to keep it weak. 

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13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

So this thread will make actually getting a storm out of the 'critical period' to happen -  hey...whatever works.    

I think now would be a great time for Saturday to come back and end up being that event. 

I would only caution that back on the 3rd, the EPS mean looked virtually the same as what you are seeing now for this 2nd possibility we've been tracking for Tuesday, for this Saturday.  

Not sure I see a compelling reason at this time why Tues should be stirring more optimism or confidence. Both Saturday, and that latter one are within a particularly suggestive telecon indication as we've outlined already.  That should offer some confidence above climatology.  It may also be helpful to Tues if Saturday does not have some kind of transitive effect on wave-spacing. Best way to do that is to keep it weak. 

And that caution is well warranted given the track record of 7-8 day threats this winter.

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32 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

So this thread will make actually getting a storm out of the 'critical period' to happen -  hey...whatever works.    

I think now would be a great time for Saturday to come back and end up being that event. 

I would only caution that back on the 3rd, the EPS mean looked virtually the same as what you are seeing now for this 2nd possibility we've been tracking for Tuesday, for this Saturday.  

Not sure I see a compelling reason at this time why Tues should be stirring more optimism or confidence. Both Saturday, and that latter one are within a particularly suggestive telecon indication as we've outlined already.  That should offer some confidence above climatology.  It may also be helpful to Tues if Saturday does not have some kind of transitive effect on wave-spacing. Best way to do that is to keep it weak. 

Saturday never had the ensemble consistency that this has had over the past 30 hours or so. It was relatively fleeting. Doesn't mean it has to work out, but it does mean it has a better shot than Saturday did.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Saturday never had the ensemble consistency that this has had over the past 30 hours or so. Doesn't mean it has to work out, but it does mean it has a better shot than Saturday did.

Carried out for 2 1/2 to 3 days

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Carried out for 2 1/2 to 3 days

It had that one huge 00z run, then immediately began to fade the following 12z. That is fact...I know because I wrote about it after that 00z suite, and it immediately started to slip....sure, the signal didn't just disappear, but it was fading all along after that brief apex. I don't see that here.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It had that one huge 00z run, then immediately began to fade the following 12z. That is fact...I know because I wrote about it after that 00z suite, and it immediately started to slip....sure, the signal didn't just disappear, but it was fading all along after that brief apex. I don't see that here.

It’s not fact and you’re making shit up to make your point I can get the charts and prove it to you if you want no actually I’m not gonna do that I’m fucking had it with you people

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10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It’s not fact and you’re making shit up to make your point I can get the charts and prove it to you if you want no actually I’m not gonna do that I’m fucking had it with you people

It is fact...sorry that you are butt-hurt that your thread got usurped, Sigmund Fraud. Wasn't me....

WTF...

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19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It’s not fact and you’re making shit up to make your point I can get the charts and prove it to you if you want no actually I’m not gonna do that I’m fucking had it with you people

I think you may both be talking about different Saturday storms.  If you are talking about the Saturday storm last weekend, yes, the GFS ensembles had shown consistency for 3 days.

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