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The last hurrah? Putting all the eggs in the Tuesday 3/14 basket


Ginx snewx
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12 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Ryan, I think he means for more of the areas not in the Northwest hills more towards the valley, but not quite the river itself. Some of these latest model runs are definitely showing more snow for areas even outside of the Northwest hills. Never seen anything like this.

I have, but I'll be 53 next week so I've seen a little weather lol

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Just now, UnitedWx said:

I have, but I'll be 53 next week so I've seen a little weather lol

So have I, 51 myself. I've seen some strange things happen. I remember a storm when I was around 12:00 that my stepmom and I got stuck in in the Hudson valley near peekskill when she was visiting her parents. It wasn't forecasted, but we wind up getting like 8 or 9 in all at once. Crazy. It was like paste.

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You can see why the bust potential in both directions exists.  It's warmth vs rates.  Probably anywhere in the coastal plain that's close to freezing and gets under a heavy band risks switching over to very heavy wet snow as it brings the cold down to the surface.  And at the same time, the warmth could win out and that's just all heavy rain.  Challenging forecast!

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Outside of the higher elevations of ORH/Berks etc....I cannot recall such a challenging forecast. Most especially inside 495. This is absurd. 

I've done this a lot of years... this is one of the most challenging / error prone calls I've ever made, not only for the inside 495 area but the western / eastern edges of the CT River Valley area from central CT northward.

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6 minutes ago, CTWeatherFreak said:

What happened to that giant FU valley shadow in Ct the canadian models (and others) had been prominently showing? What feature of the forecast storm development changed to basically wipe it away on the 12z run(s)?

I think there is a shadow (in terms of lighter snowfall amounts due to boundary layer), but the key is to avoid the inv trough look and get this to consolidate into more of a classic nor'easter. Some guidance has tried to do that, but not sure we will ever get there.

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Just now, Ericjcrash said:

It's a disaster forecast for anywhere without elevation.

It is so tenuous.  While not a similar system, I'm wondering if the degree of difficulty with forecasting this is similar to the October 2011 storm (someone mentioned it earlier, but for a different reason).

Stupid freezing point of water...

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I think there is a shadow (in terms of lighter snowfall amounts due to boundary layer), but the key is to avoid the inv trough look and get this to consolidate into more of a classic nor'easter. Some guidance has tried to do that, but not sure we will ever get there.

Does this mechanism have to do with that meso low which had been shown earlier but less prominent or not at all with 12z runs?

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